Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

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Dynamic Positioning Conference
November 15 - 16, 2005
Sensors II
Forecasting Eddy Ulysses
Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon
Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate
Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (Narragansett, RI)
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When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?
?
?
W O C
Waiting On Currents.
When will it go away?
?
How long will it shut us down?
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LOOP CURRENT/EDDY MODEL FORECAST
Frontal boundary
Cyclone
Center
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EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS
OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INITIALIZATION COMPONENT
HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE
PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES
NOWCAST
FORECAST
PREDICTION COMPONENT
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TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM
AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY
MODEL
NOWCAST
FORECAST
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SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS 15 SEPTEMBER 2004
EDDY WATCH GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004
MC
GC
WR
Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR
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AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM
ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME
INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS
INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE
INITIAL CONDITIONS (NOWCAST)
MODEL
FORECAST
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OBSERVATIONAL DATA

• Drifting buoys
• Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs
  (AXBTs)
• Ocean current surveys
• Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current
  Profilers (ADCPs)
• SST and ocean color
• Rig and pilot observations
• Altimetry

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FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS

• EXPERIENCE
• Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea
• Eddy Watch GOM (1705)
• Eddy Watch Trinidad (69)
• Hurricane
• Oil Spill
• Search Rescue
• Ring Eddy Surveys
• Vessel Tracking
• Instrument Recovery
• Plankton Studies, etc.

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AIR-DEPLOYED EXPENDABLE BATHYTHERMOGRAPH (AXBT)
Temperature
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OCEAN CURRENT SURVEYS
RIG-MOUNTED ADCPs EDDYNET
EDDY ULYSSES
LOOP CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY
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EDDY WATCH GOM CHART
GULF of MEXICO 09 September 2004 EDDY WATCH REPORT
CE
EDDY ULYSSES
WE
CE
LOOP CURRENT
TITANIC EDDY
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EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART
GULF of MEXICO 09 September 2004 EDDY WATCH REPORT
CE
EDDY ULYSSES
CE
LC
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IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES

• Eddy size
• Eddy shape
• Rotation and migration
• Vertical density structure
• Swirl speed
• Surrounding cyclonic eddies

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INITIALIZATION COMPONENT

• Analysis of observational data
• Identification of significant eddy features
• Initialization component
• Formulation of a nowcast
• 
  
• Model forecast

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COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM
NOWCAST
AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY
MODEL
FORECAST
.WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM
ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME
INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE
INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS
INITIAL CONDITIONS (NOWCAST)
FORECAST
MODEL
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09 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART
09 SEPTEMBER 2004 NOWCAST
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15 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART
15 SEPTEMBER 2004 FORECAST
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THUNDER HORSE FORECAST
Thunder Horse
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BP THUNDER HORSE ADCP vs EDDY FORECAST
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LOOP CURRENT FORECAST
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3-D MODEL OF EDDY ULYSSES
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SUMMARY

• New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system
  now available
• Skill in predicting currents out 1 month
• Advance knowledge of currents answers
  questions

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