Title: 8. ??? ?? ????? 1?? 1??? 6?? ?? ??? ????, ?? ? ?? ?? ??? Excel? ???? ??? ????.
18. ??? ?? ????? 1?? 1??? 6?? ?? ??? ????, ?? ? ??
?? ??? Excel? ???? ??? ????.
21. ??? ?? ??- 1.1 ??
- Ā ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ????? ?? ??? ?? ???, ? ???
??? ??? ???. ???, ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ?? ???
???? ?? ???? ???? ?? ????. ???, ???, ?? ?? ??? ??
? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ? ? ?? ????.
- Ā ??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ? ???? ???? ??? ????? ???
??(???)?? ???? ??(??? ??)? ???? ??? ???? ??? ????
??.
31.2 ??? ?? ??
- Ā ??? ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ?? ????? ????? ????
?? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ?? ??? ?? ???? ????. ???
??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ????, ? ??? ???
?? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???, ? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???
???? ?? ??? ???? ? ???. ???, ?? ?? ????? ??????,
??????, ??????, ????, ???? ?? ???. - Ā Ā Ā ??? ??? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ??. ??????? ???????? ?
? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?????????? ?????????
???? ??? ???? ?? ????.
4- ??? ???? ???? ???
- Ā Ā Ā ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ??
???? ? ? ??? ???(????, stationary) ??? ???? ??, ?
?? ??? ???? ????(???, non-stationary)??? ???. ??
??? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ????. - Ā Ā Ā lt?? 1.2-1gt? ??? ????? lt?? 1.2-2gt?? ?? ??
???? ???? ??? ??.
5lt?? 1.2-1gt ??????
6lt?? 1.2-2gt ???????
71.3 ??? ??? ??
- ?????? ???? ??? ?? ? ??? ????
? ? ?????? ???? ????. ?, ??? ??????
????? ? ?? 1??? ?, ? ?? 2??? ?? ????
???. - Ā Ā Ā ??? ?? ????? ??? ??????? ???? ??????? ? ???
?? ??? ???? ???, ? ????? ??? ????? ? ? ???? ?????
? ???. - Ā Ā Ā ???, ??? ??????, ?? ?????? ?? ??? ?? ????
?? ?? ???? ??? ? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?? ????? ?? ????
????? ???? ???? ??? ? ? ?? ???. ??, ?? ??(t)??
n?? ?????? ?? ??? ??. ?? ??? ??? ?? ???? ?
???? ??? ?? ??? ? ?? ???.
8-
- Ā Ā Ā
- ???, ? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ???
???. ??? n?? ???????? ?? ????? ???? ?? m? ???? ??
????? ????, ? ????? ?? ??? ???.
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
9- ?? ? ????? ??? ????? ?? n?? ???? ??? ? ??? ? ???
? ????. ?, -
- ??.
- Ā Ā Ā ???, ?? ??? ????? ? ????? ??? ??? ??? ??, ??
??? (????? ??? ????) ???? ???, ? ????? ? ?????
??? ?? ????? ???? ??? ??? ? ???.
10- ?,Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ?? ???? ???, ?? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ?
???.Ā - Ā Ā Ā ??, ?? m??? ?? ???? ???, ?
????? ? ???
? ?? ???,
11- ? ??? ?????? ???. ??? ??? ????? ????? ????
???? ???? ??? ??. -
- 1) Mean Error (????)
- 2) Mean Absolute Error (??????)
- 3) Mean Squared Error (?????
??) - 4) Standard Deviation of Errors
(??? ????) - 5) Percentage Error (???
???)
12- 6) Mean percentage Error (??????
??) - 7) Mean Absolute Percentage Error
- Ā Ā Ā (????? ???? ??)
- 8) Theil's U-Statistic (Theil? U ???)
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ???Ā , (??? ????)
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (??? ????)
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- 9) Durbin-Watson Statistic (Durbin-Watson? ???)
131.4 ??? (Smoothing Method)
- ???(Smoothing Method)?? ???? ?????? ??? ????
???? ??? ? ??? ?? ????. - Ā Ā Ā ?? ???, ?? ???? ??? ???? ???(Random) ????
????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ? ???? ??? ??? ?????
????. - Ā Ā Ā ???, Smoothing ??? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ????
???? ?????? ?? ?? ????(Moving Average)???
?????(Exponential Smoothing) ??? ? ??? ??? ??? ?
??.
141.4.1 ??????
- ???????? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????
?? ??? ???? ? ?? ????. ??? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??
??? ??? ?? ? ? ??. -
- 1) ?? (Average)
- Ā Ā Ā ??? ???? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ????. ????, ????
??? ?? ?? ????? ?? ???? ??? ? ?? ????. - Ā Ā ??? ??, ? ??? ??.
15- ??? (T1) ????? ??? ?
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ? ??? ???. ?? (T1) ??? ?? ??? ?? ????? ?????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ? ???? ??. ????? ?? (T2)??? ???, ?
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ? ??? ???.
16- ??? ??? ???? ???? ? ?? ?????? ??(Trend)? ??
???(Seasonality)? ?? ???????. ??? ?????? ?????
??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???(Stable)? ???? ????
??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ???? ? ???. ???, ?????? ???
???? ?? ??, ?? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ????? ???
???? ?? ???? ??? ?? ?? ???.
17- 2) ?????? (Simple Moving Average)
- Ā Ā ?????? ??? ???? ?? ??, ??? ??? ???? ??? ???
???? ???? ????? ???? ????. - Ā Ā ????? ?? ?? (T)? ???? ?? ? ?? ???? ??? ?? ???
?? ?? (N)? ????, ??? ?? ???? ????(moving
average)? ?? ? ??.Ā ??? ??, ? ??? ??.
??? ??? N??? ??, lt? 1.4.1-2gt? ?? ?? (T1, T2,
T3)??? ???, ? ???.
18Ā Ā lt? 1.4.1-2gt ????????? ???? ????? ???
???? Ā ???? (MA(N))Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā ???
T
T1
T2
19- ???, ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ?? ?? ???? ?????.
- ??????? ???? ??? ?? (N)? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ???
- (a) MA(1)? ?? ?? (T)? ??? ??? ?? ?? (T1)? ??????
????? ???. - (b) MA(4)? ??? ??? ?? ??? ? ?? ?, 4?? ??? ??? ???
?? ??? ???? ? ??? ???, ? ???? ?? ??? ????? ??? ??
??? ????? ????? ????? ??. ??? ??????, 4?? ??? ???
4? ???? ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ? ???. - (c) ???????? ??? ?? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ??.
???? ?? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ?? ? ???? ????
?? ???? ???? ??? ????.
20- 3) ???????? (Linear Moving Average Method)
- Ā Ā Ā ??? ??? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ??
?? ??? ????? ? ?? ??. - Ā Ā Ā ??? ?? ?????? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??, ???
??? ???? ??? ?? ??????(linear moving average
method)? ????. - Ā Ā Ā ?? ??????? ???? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ????
???? ????. ??? N? ????? ?? N?? ?? ????? ???
MA(NxN)?? ????? ??. - Ā Ā Ā ??????????? ?? ?????????? ?? MA(3)? ?? t3?
?????. ??? ???????? MA(3x3)? 3?? ?????? (4, 6,
8)??? ?? ?, ?? ?????? MA(3) - MA(3x3)?? ????
???? ??? ???? ???? ????.
21- Ā ??, ????? ??????? ???? ????????? ?? ????
???????? ??. ??????? ?? ??????? ??
???? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ??,
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā MA(3)
(MA(3)-MA(33))Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (1.4.1-1) - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā ?? (Trend)Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (1.4.1-2) - ?? ? ? ?????????? ??(Tm)? ???? ???Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (1.4.1
-3) - ??. ?? ?? (T1)??? ???? ??.
221.5 ??? ?? ???
- ?(1.4-1)? ???????? ??? ?? ?? ???
??? ????, ?(1.4-2)? ???? ??? ?? ???? ????.
?(1.4-2)? 2/(N-1)? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ????
????? ??. - Ā Ā Ā ??, ?? N? ????? ?? ??? ??? ?? ???? ??? ??
(N1)/2? ????? ?? ????. ???, ?? N? ?????? ?? N?
????? ??? N-(N1)/2(N-1)/2 ??? ??? ?? ??. - Ā Ā ??????? ?? ?? ????? (N-1)/2 ??? ??? ?? ?
????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ?? ??(??? ???? ??)?
?? ??? ? (N-1)/2? ??, ?(1.4-2)? ?? ??.
231.5.1 ????? (The Component of Time Series Data)
- ?????? ???? ?? ? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??.
- 1) ?? (Trend)
- Ā Ā Ā ??? ??? ????? ??? ?? ? ??? ???? ???. ???
?????(Long-run) ????, ?????, ??? ???? ??? ?? ???
???? ??. ?? ?????? ????? ??? ??? ? ??? ????,
?????(Exponentially) ???? ???? ????? ??? ? ?? ??
24- 2) ???? (Cyclical Movement)
- Ā Ā Ā ????? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??(Ups and Downs)? ???
?? ?? ???. ?? ??, GNP(?????), ??????, ????, ???
????, ????, ?????, ??? ?? ???? - 3) ???? (Seasonal Fluctuation)
- Ā Ā Ā ????? ??? ??? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ???.
?? ??, ??(1? ??), ???(1? ??), ?????(1? ??) ? - ????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ??(1?, 1?, 1?
?)?? ??? ?? ????? ???? ?? ?? ??? ???(Cycle)? ????
??? ? ? ??.
25- ??? ?? ?????? ? ?? ??? ????? ????? ????
???? ?????( )? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ??? ? ??. ??? ??(Error/Randomness)? ???
???? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?? ??, ??, ?? ??? ??? ??
??, ?? ???? ?? ??. - ????, ?????? ??? ??? ??? ? ?? ??? ??? ?? ???
???? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (1.5.1-1) - ? ????. ???, ? ????? ??? ?, ?
????? ????, ? ????, ? ????, ? ??????
????.
26- ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ???? ??.
- (1) ???? ??(N)? ??? ? N?? ????? ??? ????
????(???)? ???? ? ??. ? ????? ??(N)? 12????,
4???, 7??? ?? ??? ??? N? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??
?? ?? ??? ???? ?? ?? ???? ????, ? ???? ????? ???
?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ?? ? ??. - (2) ?????( )? ?? (1)?? ?? ???? ??? ????? ??
????? ????? ?? ??. - (3) ??? ?????? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ? ? ?? ??, ?
??? ??( )? ?? ? ??. - (4) (2)?? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?? ????? (3)?? ??
????? ???? ????( )? ???? - (5) ?? ???? ??? , , ? ?? ??? ? ?? ?? ?????(
)??.
271.5.2 ????
- ?????? ?????(Log-run) ?? ??? ???? ????
??(Trend)?? ??. ?????? ???? ??? ??? ?? ???? ???
???? ????, ??? ??? ??? ??(Linear)?? ?? ????? ???
? ???? ?? ???. ?????? ?? ??? ????? lt?? 1.5-2gt?
??.
28lt?? 1.5.2-1gt ??? ??? ??? ??
29- ?? lt?? 1.5.2-1gt(a)? ??? ??? ?? ???? ???? ????
????. ?? ??, ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ???? ??? ? ???. lt?? 1.5.2-1gt(b)?
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ???? ??? ????? ??
????? ???? ??? ????. ?? ? ??? ???(Non-linear)???,
??? ??? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ??? ? ? ?? ? ??.
30- lt?? 1.5.2-1gt (c)? (d)? ??
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ??? ??? ???.
- Ā Ā Ā ??? lt?? 1.5.2-1gt (e)? ????? ???? ????? ????
??? ?????, ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ??? ?? ? ??? ????
??? ???? ???? ????. ?? ?? ????? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ???? ???? ??. ?? ????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ? ??? a? b? ?? ? ?? ??.
31- (1) ????? ?
- Ā ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ? t?
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ??? ??? ???. ??? ( ,t)? ?? ??? n? ?? ??
????? ?????? ?? ??? b? ?? a? ?? ?? ? ??. ?? ??,
lt? 1.5.2-1gt? ?? ??? ??? ?? ? ????? ??? ???( )
??? ??? ?? a? b? ??? ??, a3.823.7?? ??? ????
b166.0Ā Ā - ??.Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
32lt? 1.5.2-1gt ?? ???? ????? ??? ??? (?????)
33- ? ??? ?? ??? ??(scatter plot)? ???? lt?? 1.5.2-2gt?
??.
lt?? 1.5.2-2gt ??? ??? ??? ???
34- (2) ?????? ??
- ?????( )? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? lt?? 1.5-2gt? (b),
(c), (d)? ?? ???? ??? ?? ??? - ?? ??? ??? ? ???, ????? ??(Logarithm)? ????? ???
??? ??? ??.
35- ??? ??? Scatter Plot? ?? ?? ?? ??? ??? ???
???? ????? ?? ?? ???? ??? ???. ???, ?? ???? ???
?? ???? ??? ??? ??(Differencing)????, ??? ???
????(Autocorrelation)? ?? ? ??? ??. - Ā Ā Ā ???? ????? ??
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ? ??? ?? ???? ?, ? ???? ??? ???(Constant)
??? ????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ? ? ?? ???. ??, ??? ??
?? ???? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???? ? ??? ??? 2??? ???
???? ??? ? ?? ???.
36- ?,
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ?? 2? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? 2??? ??? ???
??? ????. ?, ?? ???? ??? ?? ??( )? 1? ??? ??? ??
?? ??? ???, ?? ??? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ? ??. - Ā Ā ???? ??? ??? ??? ? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ??
(Detrending)???? ??? ?? ?? ?, ? ???
??????(Stationary Time-series)? ? ??? ? ???????
???? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ?? ??.
371.5.3 ????
- ????(Cyclical Fluctuation)? ????? ???? ?????? ???
? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??, ??? ??? ??? ???? ????
???? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???.
381.5.4 ????
- ????(Seasonal Variation)?? 1? ??? ??? ?? ?????
???? ??? ???. ??? 1?, 1?, 1? ?? ? ? ???, ??? ???
? ?? ??? ????? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ????? ?? ? ??.
??? ??? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??. ??, ??
??????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????, ??? ?? ??
? ???? ????? ?? ??? ??? ????. ?, ????? ??? ?
??????? ???? ??? ? ????? ?? ?? ?? ??? ??? ? ? ??
???. ????? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???
????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ? ? ?? ????.
391.6 Box-Jenkins ??
- ?? ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving
Average) ???? ????? Box-Jenkis ??? ?????? ??? ??
???? ??.Ā Box-Jenkins ??? ??? ?????? ???? ? ??
??? ? ?? ??, ?, - (1) ???? (model identification)
- (2) ??? ??? ???? ?? ? ?? (testing)
- (3) ?? (forecasting)
- ? ??? ??.
401.6.1 Box-Jenkins ??
- ?? ?????? ???? ??, Box-Jenkins ??? ??? ? ???
?????. ?, - (1) ??????
- (2) ??????
- (3) ??????????
- (1) ?????? (Autoregressive Model)
- Ā Ā Ā ???????? ?????( )? ?? ???? ????? ????. ??
???, ????? ?? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.1-1) - ?? ? ?, ??(t) ??? ??? ?( )? ?? ?? (t-1)?????
??, 2?? (t-2)? ????? ?? ??? ??? ???? ? ? ??
???.
41- ???? ?? p??? ??? ? ??? ??? ? ??? ?(1.6.1-1)? p?
????????? ??? AR(p)?? ????. ??, ?? ??? ?? ??? ??
???? ??? ?? ??, AR(1) ??? ?? -
Ā (1.6.1-2) - ?? ????. ??? ? ??? ???? ??? ???? ?????
???? ??? ??? ?? ??. - ?, Ā
- ??.Ā Ā Ā Ā
42- (2) ?????? (Moving Average Model)
- Ā Ā Ā ???????? ?????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā (1.6.1-3) - ?? ????? ?(6-3)? q? ????????? ???, MA(q)?
????. ??, ?? ?? ?? (t-1)? ????? ???? ???? 1?
??????? ??, - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (1.6.1-4) - ?? ????.
43- (3) ?????????? (Autoregressive Moving Average
Model) - Ā Ā Ā ???? ? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ? ???
?? ??? ????? ??? ? ??? ?? ???? ???, ??? ???? ???
????? ??? ??? ???? ??? ??? ???? ? ?? ?? ???. ????
AR? MA? ??? ??????????? ??? ?? ??? ? ??. ?, - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā (1.6.1-5) - ??.Ā
44- ??? ??????????? ARMA(p,q)? ??? ? ??. ?? ???
ARMA??? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā Ā (1.6.1-6) - ??? ARMA(1,1)?? ???? ??.
- Ā Ā Ā ARMA??? AR??? MA??? ???????, AR?? MA???
ARMA?? ?????? ????? ??. ?, ?? ??, AR(1)?
ARMA(1,0)?? MA(1)? ARMA(0,1)??? ???? ????.
45- ????? ( )? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??, ?(1.6.1-2)?
? ? ???? ?????? ? ? ??? ?? ? ??
???(??????), AR(1)??? ????? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.1-7) - ? ???? ?? ????. ??? ?(1.6.1-7)? ?? ????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā (1.6.1-8) - ? ??.Ā ?, ?(1.6.1-4)? MA(1)??? ? ??? ? ?,
????? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.1-9) - ?? ????? ? ???. ???, ???? ?? ??? ??? ?
??? 0?? ???? ???? ???? ??.
461.6.2 ??? ??
- ??????? ?? AR, MA, ARMA ??? ? ??? ??? ??? ???. ??
??(order)? ??? ? ? ??? ?? ???? ?? ? ? ??. ???,
??? ???? ?? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ??
??(identification)??? ??. ?, ??? ?????? ?? ????
??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ???, ???
?? ???? ??????(autocorrelation AC)?
????????(partial autocorrelation PAC)? ??.
47- Box-Jenkins ??? ???? ???? ??????(AC)?
????????(PAC)? ????? ??????(AR), ??????(MA),
??????????(ARMA)? ??????? ????????? ??? ? ???
?????? ?? ??? ?????? ?? ? ??. - O MA ??
- Ā Ā Ā AC? ???? ??? ?? PAC? ????? ???? ??? ?????,
???? AC? ???? ?? ??? ????. - O AR ??
- Ā Ā Ā PAC? ???? ??? ??, AC? ????? ???? ??? ??? ??
???? ???? ???? PAC? ???? ?? ??? ????. - O ARMA ??
- Ā Ā AC? PAC ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ???? ??? ? ??
???.
481.6.3 MA??, AR??, ARMA??? AC? PAC
- ???? ??? ??? ?? ???(MA, AR, ARMA)? ?? ???????
????????? ??? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ?? ???
??? ??.
49- 1) MA??
- Ā Ā Ā ?? MA(1)??,
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā ? ?? ?????? (AC)? ??? ?? ????. ?, ?? (lag) 1?
??????? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
(1.6.3-1) - ??. ?? 2????? ??? 0? ???
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (
1.6.3-2) - ??.Ā
50- ????, MA(1)??? ?? 1? AC?? ???? 2??? ????? AC???
0? ?? PAC? ????? ???? ?? ??? ?? ??. lt??
1.6.3-1gt??? MA(1)? ?? ?? AC? PAC???? ???? ??.
51lt?? 1.6.3-1gt MA(1)? AC? PAC ??
52- MA(2)??? ?? ??????? ??? ?? ????. ?, MA(2)???
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ???, ?? 1? ??????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.3-3) -
- ??, ?? 2? ???????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.3-4)
- ?? ????, ?? 3????? 0??.
53- ???, MA(2)??? ??
- AC? PAC ???? lt?? 1.6.3-2gt? ?? ????.
lt?? 1.6.3-2gt MA(2)? AC? PAC? ??
54- ?? ??? ? ? ???? ????? ???? ???
?????(backward operator) "B"? ????? ??. ?, B? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā (1.6.3-5) - ? ????? ?? MA(1)???
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.3-6) - ?, MA(2)???
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
(1.6.3-7) - ? ??? ? ??? ???. ??? ??? ??? ???? ????????
???? ?? ???? ???????? ???? ? ????? ???? ?? ????
????.
55- 2) AR??
- ??, ?? ??? AR(1)??? ?? ?????? (AC)? ??? ?? ????.
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ??
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā (1.6.3-8) - ???? AC? ?? k? ???? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??.
- lt?? 1.6.3-3gt? AR(1)??? AC? PAC ??.
56lt?? 1.6.3-3gt AR(1)? AC? PAC ??
57- AR(2)??? ????
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
Ā Ā Ā (1.6.3-9) -
-
- ?? ???? ??, lt?? 1.6-3gt? AR(2)??? ???? AC,
PAC? ??? ??. ??, AR??? ???? PAC? ??? ??? ???? ???
PAC??? ???? ??? ????, AC? ??(???) ???? ??? ????.
58lt?? 1.6.3-4gt AR(2)? AC? PAC
59- 3) ARMA??
- AR? MA??? ?? ??? ARMA??? ???? ?????? (AC)?
???????? (PAC) ?? ????? ???? ??? ???. ? ???? AC,
PAC ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? AR? ???, MA? ?? ????
??? ? ARMA???? ??? ??? ??. ARMA(1,1) ??? ?? ? ??
AC?PAC ??? ???? lt?? 1.6.3-5gt? ??.
60lt?? 1.6.3-5gt ARMA(1,1)? AC? PAC ??
611.6.4 ???? ???
- Ā Ā Ā ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ?????????.
????????? ?? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ?? ???, ??? ??
?? ???? ???????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ??? ? ??
??. ???????? ??????? ??? ??? ??
??(differencing)?? ????. - Ā Ā Ā ???, ? ?? ? 1? ??(first difference)?
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ?? ?????, 1? ??? ??? ? ??????? ????
- ? ?? ?? ???? 2? ??? ??? ? ??. ?, 2? ???
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ?? ????.
- Ā Ā Ā ??? ???????? 2? ???? ??????? ???, 2? ?????
??????? ?? ?? ????, ? ?? ???? ?? ??? ?? ?? ???
?? ?? ????. Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
621.6.5 ??? ??? ???? ??? ??
- ?? 1.6.3??? ??? MA??? AR?? ??? ARMA ??? AC?
PAC ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ?, ? ??? AC? PAC??
? ??? ?? ???? ??? ? ???? ?????. ??, ?? ??????
AC?PAC ? ????? ??? AC? PAC? ???? ?? ???? ??? ???.
- Ā Ā Ā ?? ??? ?????? AC? PAC? ?? ?? ????? ??? ??? ?
??? ???? ??? ???? ??. ??? ????? - o ?? ?????
- o ??? ?????
- o ?????
- ?? ???, ? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ?? ??. ???
??? ?? ???(SAS, SPSS, RATS, Minitab ?)?? ??? ????
????? ??.
63- ??? ???? ??? ????, ?????? ? ??? ??? ? ??????
???? ???, ? ????? AIC(Akaike Information
Criterion) ?? SBC(Schwartz Bayesian Criterion)?
???? ?? ?????. ?, ARMA(p,q)??? ??Ā - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
- ? ?????, AIC(?? SBC) ?? ?? ?? (p,q)? ?? ???
????? ??? ? ??. ??, ????????(??????? ?????) ????
???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ?? ?? ??? ???? ?? ?????.
64- Box-Pierce ???
- Ā Ā Ā ???? ?? ???? ??? ? ????? ?????? ? ????? ???
??? ?? ???? ???. ???? ????(autocorrelation of
residuals)? ???? ??? Box-Pierce(Portmanteu) Q????
????? ??(lag) ???? ????? ?????? ??? ? ??. ?,
Q???? - Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā
-
- ? ?????, T? ??? ?(??? ?), ? ?? (lag) ???
??????, m? ?? 1?? ?? m??? ?? ??? ????. ?, - ? ?????? ?? ???????
Q???? ????? M? 6, 12, 18 ??? ?? ???? ?????? ????
?? ??? ????.
65- ??? ?????? ????
- Ā Ā ????? ?? 2? ??? ??? ??? ??? ????? ?? ?????
????? ??. ??, ? ?? ????? ?? ?? ????? ????? ? ?
??? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ?? ????? ????. ?? ??,
??? ?? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???? 3? ?????? ??? ?
??. - ????, ???? 2? ???? 3? ????? 0.856??? ? ??
??? ?? ??? ???, ???? 2 ??? ???? 3? ????Ā 1? ??
????? ?? ????. ???, ???? 3? ?? ??? ?? ??? ????
??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ? ???.