Variations in Florida Tropical Storms and Hurricane-Induced Tornadoes (HITs) Based on Global Fluctuations in Weather and Climate

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Variations in Florida Tropical Storms and
Hurricane-Induced Tornadoes (HITs)Based on
Global Fluctuations in Weather and Climate

• Rebecca C. Boltz and Ernest M. Agee
• Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University

Studies by several researchers (e.g., Gray 1984
Pielke and Landsea 1999 Glantz 1999) show some
statistical correlation of La Niña events to
increased N. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency
Northern Hemisphere Temperature Record

• Summary and Conclusions
• Florida TCs match well with N. Atlantic TCs
• Florida HITs have increased during the past 20
  years
• La Niña as a predictor of N. Atlantic TC
  frequency has mixed results
• The O.N.I. is positively correlated to N.
  Atlantic TCs (more bad news for La Niña)
• N. Atlantic and Florida TC trends (and Florida
  HITs) correspond well with tropical N. Atlantic
  SST anomalies
• Florida surface air temperature (and N. Amer. Ts)
  corresponds well with N. Atlantic and Florida TC
  trends and SST anomalies

Cold and Warm Episodes by Season

• TC1 corresponds to 1969 when JJA, JAS, ASO, SON
  OND has an O.N.I. 0.56
• No La Niña Doesn't Work!
• TC2 corresponds to 1995 when the O.N.I. for TC
  season -0.42
• La Niña It Works!
• TC3 for 2005 28, and the O.N.I. -.08
• No La Niña Doesn't Work!

North American Surface Air Temperature Anomalies
Table 1 Hurricane seasons 1950-2001. All years
except those listed are neutral years. El Niño
years 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1976,
1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1997La Niña years 1950,
1954, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1988,
1995, 1998, 1999
Tropical N. Atlantic SST Anomalies

• M.E.I. Anomalies in Select Regions of the
  Tropical Pacific Ocean
• TC1 and TC2 correspond to ENSO Index Values of
  0.3 and 1.1, respectively