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Where to Tan and Buy Beach Property: An Overview on Global Warming

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Where to Tan and Buy Beach Property: An Overview on Global Warming Dennis Baldocchi Professor of Biometeorology Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Where to Tan and Buy Beach Property: An Overview on Global Warming


1
Where to Tan and Buy Beach Property An Overview
on Global Warming
  • Dennis Baldocchi
  • Professor of Biometeorology
  • Department of Environmental Science, Policy and
    Management
  • Berkeley Atmospheric Science Center
  • Defend Science, April, 2006

2
Knowledge is Power
  • Background
  • Greenhouse-Effect Principles
  • Historic and Current Observations
  • Methods
  • Trace Gases
  • Temperature
  • Sea Level and Sea Ice
  • Model Predictions
  • Scientists Defending Global Warming

3
Physics of the Atmosphere
4
Climate Concepts
  • Atmosphere is a Dynamic and Complex System
  • Multiple Positive and Negative Feedbacks that
    operate across a Spectrum of Time and Space
    Scales
  • Non-Linear Processes
  • Sensitivity to Initial Conditions
  • Thresholds and Tipping Points

5
Schellnhuber, Tipping Point
6
Radiative Balance of Earth without an Atmosphere
Radiation intercepted by Earth equals that
radiated back into space.
Trad251 K -22 C
s
4
(1-a)S/4
T
Solar constant, S1366 W m
-2
albedo, a 0.33
7
(No Transcript)
8
Many Atmospheric Trace Gases Absorb Re-emit
Infrared Radiation
HI-Tran Database
9
Radiation Streams in a Greenhouse Atmosphere
Temperature of Earth with Atmosphere Tsfc288 K
10
Trends in Trace GasesAncient and Recent
11
Paleo- CO2 and Temperature Record
12
(No Transcript)
13
Changing CO2 Re-enforces T anomalies
14
Bender, GBC, 2003
15
Contemporary CO2 Record
16
13C Isotope record Evidence of Fossil Fuel
Combustion
  • Plant based Carbon has a 13C signature -25 per
    mil
  • Combustion of Fossil Fuels Dilutes the
    Atmospheric Background

17
Atmospheric CO2 Burden
18
Evidence of Global Warming Direct and Indirect
Confirmation by Multiple Methods
  • Observations
  • Climate Networks (1850 to present)
  • Air, Sea and Soil Temperature Networks
  • Phenology Networks
  • Date of flowering (lilac, cherries, fruit trees)
  • Timing of grape harvest
  • Sea Level
  • Tree Rings (1000 to present)
  • Stable Isotopes
  • Ice Cores (600 kyr BCE to present)
  • Oxygen isotope ratio (18O/16O) in calcium
    carbonate of seashells (forams)
  • Satellite Observations
  • Length of Growing Season (1970s to present)
  • Extent of Sea Ice
  • Modeling
  • Global Circulation-Climate Models
  • Diagostic
  • Prognostic

19
Temperature Anomaly TrendsInstrument Record
Waple et al 2002 BAMS
20
Proxy Temperature Record Tree Rings, Coral,
sediments, ice cores
Courtesy of ME Mann, Penn State
21
Climate StatisticsMean vs Probablity
Distribution
  • Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes
  • El Nino/La Nina
  • Extra-Tropical, Severe Winter Storms
  • Precipitation, Drought
  • Temperature, Extreme Heat and Cold
  • Floods, Winter Storms, Thunderstorms
  • Thunderstorms Hail, Lightening, Fire, Tornados

22
Hansen et al. 2005, JGR
23
Climate Proxy Beginning of growing season and
temperature in Germany
Chmielewski, AgForMet
24
Change in Arctic Ice and Greenland
NOAA/CIRES
Arctic Ice Extent
25
Whats Happening Locally?Sea Level at Ft Point
http//pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/
26
Baldocchi and Wong, 2006, Cal EPA Report
27
Future Conditions
28
Climate Model Refinements
  • Sulfate aerosols
  • Transient Changes in Trace Gases
  • Suite of Radiative trace gases, CO2, H2O, CFC,
    N2O
  • Coupled ocean and atmosphere
  • Cloud/water vapor feedbacks
  • Finer Resolution, 19 layers, 250 km grid
  • Improved Land Surface schemes
  • BATS, SIB-I, SIB-II, LSX

29
GFDL/NOAA
http//www.gfdl.gov/rjs/stouffer_MBO.html
30
(No Transcript)
31
Sealevel Rise, GFDL,/NOAA
http//www.gfdl.gov/tk/climate_dynamics/fig4.gif
32
Further Refinements
  • Coupling Climate, Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem
    Dynamic models
  • Climate Change is needed to predict Vegetation
    Changes
  • Changes in Vegetation affects land/surface
    interactions and Climate
  • Mass and energy fluxes are constrained by links
    to Biogeochemistry
  • Assess changes in landcover due to mankind

33
Defenders of Climate Science
  • Michael Mann, Penn State
  • James Hansen, NASA/GISS

34
Michael Mann, Penn State
  • Was subject to criticism of Hockey stick
    Climate data, which was featured in IPCC report
  • McIntyre and McKitrick (2003, GRL), an Mining
    Executive and an Economistis falsely claim that
    the hockey stick is an artifact of the use of
    series with infilled data and the convention by
    which certain networks of proxy data were
    represented
  • Other Critics (von Storch, Science Burger and
    Cubasch, GRL) detrended proxy data before
    calibration
  • In 2005, Texas Representative Joe Barton, chair
    of the United States House of Representatives
    Energy and Commerce Committee and a global
    warming skeptic, demanded information on the
    location of data archives, computer codes, grant
    awards, and other research details from Mann and
    his hockey stick colleagues.
  • Details are available at http//branch.ltrr.arizon
    a.edu
  • National Academy Science has been commission to
    report on paleoclimate reconstruction
  • Mann expects that this report will reaffirm ours
    and other studies leading to the same common
    conclusion, that late 20th century warmth is
    anomalous in this context

www.realclimate.org
35
James Hansen, NASA/GISS
  • Subject of 60 Minutes Interview and New York
    Times article on Restrictions by NASA for
    Scientists to communicate with Journalists and on
    having had research results and reports edited by
    Bush Administration staff.
  • The new NASA guidelines prohibit the editing of
    reports to alter scientific data, as well as any
    public affairs management of NASA projects by
    non-agency institutions.
  • NASA scientists may draw conclusions from their
    research and communicate them to the media, but
    "must make clear that they are presenting their
    individual views not the views of the agency
    and ask that they be sourced as such. (April 2,
    2006)
  • the new policy is a substantial improvement
  • "things have changed dramatically since this
    became a public issue ... hopefully similar
    things will happen at other agencies that have
    had problems." (James Hansen)

36
Conclusions
  • Climate system is inherently noisy, but Trends
    are Emerging
  • We view climate system with multiple tools at
    multiple time and space scales
  • Consistent and Repeatable Patterns are Arising
  • Climate Forecasts are based on fundamental
    principles of Physics, Biology and Chemistry
  • Climate Change is Associated with many complex
    feedbacks
  • Change can be slow at first, but accelerate later
    as ice-caps melt, albedo decreases and moisture
    in the atmosphere increases
  • Science is Not Democratic
  • Hypotheses are Rejected and Accepted based on
    observation and theoretical principles
  • Policy and Science
  • Society is holding Climate Change Scientists to a
    much Higher Burden of proof than for other
    economic and political decisions (eg Weapons of
    Mass Destruction, War in Iraq, Purchase of stocks
    and bonds).
  • It is prudent and pre-cautionary to rely on the
    ability of scientifically-based models to predict
    trends through and out of inherently noisy
    environmental signals in order to make effective
    policy
  • Penny wise versus Dollar Foolish
  • The Long-Term costs of responding to unmitigated
    climate change could far exceed the current
    savings associated with doing nothing now(health,
    governmental stability)
  • We need to Change How Business is Accounted by
    Internalizing Externalities.
  • The current cost of oil does not reflect the
    effects of climate change on societies and
    ecosystems

37
Climate Skeptics
  • Senator James Inhofe, OK
  • Global Warming is a Hoax
  • Michael Crichton, Author
  • State of Fear
  • Patrick Michaels, State Climatologist, Virginia
  • "The American people have just been bludgeoned
    with climate disaster stories for God knows how
    long," "and they're just, they've got disaster
    fatigue. (ABC News)
  • Robert Novak claims that Hansen in 1988
    over-predicted global warming by 400 (a story
    originated by Pat Michaels and subsequently
    propagated by Michael Crichton)
  • Fred Singer

38
Radiative Forcing
Hansen et al 2005 JGR
39
2x CO2 and ground Temperature
http//www.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/co2hansen.cgi
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