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Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences

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Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and the University of Chicago – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences


1
Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its
Consequences
  • Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
  • Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
  • Center on Aging
  • NORC and the University of Chicago
  • Chicago, Illinois, USA

2
Trends in Life Expectancy at 60 Females
  • Source Human Mortality Database

3
Longevity Revolution through Biotechnology and
genetic engineering
  • "... it may soon be possible to delay both aging
    and age-related disease in humans." (p. 162)
  • The Longevity Revolution The Benefits and
    Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N.
    Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

4
Longevity Revolution (2)
  • "The present level of development of aging and
    longevity research justifies an Apollo-type
    effort to control aging ... (p. 187)

5
Longevity Revolution (3)
  • "Enthusiasts over the future of cell, tissue, and
    organ replacement imagine successive,
    comprehensive reconstitutions of the body.
    Replacement or regenerative medicine would push
    death back, presumably indefinitely. (p. 401)

6
Longevity Revolution (4)
  • " "Indeed, some believe that humans can master
    their evolution. Among them is Aubrey de Grey of
    Cambridge University, who suggests a life
    expectancy of five thousand years by 2100 17.
    (pp. 13-14)

7
New academic journal on
life-extension and rejuvenation
  • Fully indexed by MEDLINE
  • Latest Impact Factor is 4.138

8
Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed?
  • Because it requires serious funding
  • and commitment
  • "It is sheer foolishness to imagine that we can
    extend life ... without substantial governmental
    participation" (p. 11)
  • in 2007 only about 15 to 20 percent of
    approved grants were funded, depending on the
    institute. I believe that at least 30
    percent of approved grants (if not more) should
    be funded. ... When funds are tight, review
    committees act too cautiously and conservatively.
    Funds should be available to support risky
    research. (p.106)

9
Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (2)
  • Today less than 1 percent of the entire federal
    budget is spent on medical research. Both to
    improve health and control costs, I propose that
    3 percent of the nation's overall health bill
    (1.8 trillion projected as 2005) or 54 billion
    be available to NIH for medical research from
    federal revenues. I also propose that of Medicare
    expenditures, 1 percent (or 3 billion) be
    devoted to the National Institute on Aging.
    (p.110)

10
Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (3)
  • While the numbers I am suggesting may seem
    extraordinary, I believe the level of scientific
    progress in the field since the 1950s justifies
    such a program, which could be dubbed the Apollo
    Program for Aging and Longevity Science.
    (p.110)
  • "An orbital jump in financing of science is
    required to advance longevity and health as well
    as national wealth. (p. 118 - 119)
  • Reference The Longevity Revolution The Benefits
    and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert
    N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

11
General Prediction
  • Effective life-extending technologies may appear
    within our lifetime
  • However they will be initially expensive and not
    readily available
  • Therefore, 'longevity risk' will be particularly
    high for persons who are HEWM
  • Healthy (at baseline)
  • Educated
  • Wealthy
  • Motivated
  • It is conceivable that such HEWM people may reach
    life expectancy of about 120 years in a
    foreseeable future.

12
What May Happen in the Case of Radical Life
Extension?
13
Rationale of our study
  • A common objection against starting a large-scale
    biomedical war on aging is the fear of
    catastrophic population consequences
    (overpopulation)

14
Rationale (continued)
  • This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that
    no detailed demographic projections for radical
    life extension scenario were conducted so far.
  • What would happen with population numbers if
    aging-related deaths are significantly postponed
    or even eliminated?
  • Is it possible to have a sustainable population
    dynamics in a future hypothetical non-aging
    society?

15
The Purpose of this Study
  • This study explores different demographic
    scenarios and population projections, in order to
    clarify what could be the demographic
    consequences of a successful biomedical war on
    aging.

16
"Worst" Case Scenario Immortality
  • Consider the "worst" case scenario (for
    overpopulation) -- physical immortality (no
    deaths at all)
  • What would happen with population numbers, then?
  • A common sense and intuition says that there
    should be a demographic catastrophe, if immortal
    people continue to reproduce.
  • But what would the science (mathematics) say ?

17
The case of immortal population
  • Suppose that parents produce less than two
    children on average, so that each next generation
    is smaller
  • Generation (n1)
  • Generation n
  • Then even if everybody is immortal, the final
    size of the population will not be infinite, but
    just
  • larger than the initial population.

r lt 1
1/(1 - r)
18
The case of immortal population
  • For example one-child practice (r 0.5) will
    only double the total immortal population
  • Proof
  • Infinite geometric series converge if the
    absolute value of the common ratio ( r ) is less
    than one
  • 1 r r2 r3 rn 1/(1-r)

1/(1 - r) 1/0.5 2
19
Lesson to be Learned
  • Fears of overpopulation based on lay common sense
    and uneducated intuition could be exaggerated.
  • Immortality, the joy of parenting, and
    sustainable population size, are not mutually
    exclusive.
  • This is because a population of immortal
    reproducing organisms will grow indefinitely in
    time, but not necessarily indefinitely in size
    (asymptotic growth is possible).

20
Method of population projection
  • Cohort-component method of population projection
    (standard demographic approach)
  • Age-specific fertility is assumed to remain
    unchanged over time, to study mortality effects
    only
  • No migration assumed, because of the focus on
    natural increase or decline of the population
  • New population projection software is developed
    using Microsoft Excel macros

21
Study population Sweden 2005
22
Mortality in the study population
23
Population projection without life extension
interventions
Beginning of population decline after 2025
24
Projected changes in population pyramid 100 years
later
25
Why Life-Extension is a Part of the Solution,
rather than a Problem
  • Many developed countries (like the studied
    Sweden) face dramatic decline in native-born
    population in the future (see earlier graphs) ,
    and also risk to lose their cultural identity due
    to massive immigration.
  • Therefore, extension of healthy lifespan in these
    countries may in fact prevent, rather than create
    a demographic catastrophe.

26
Scenario 1 Modest scenario Continuous mortality
decline
  • Mortality continues to decline with the same pace
    as before (2 percent per year)

27
Changes in Mortality, 1925-2007
Swedish Females. Data source Human Mortality
Database
28
Modest scenario Continuous mortality decline
An example for Swedish females. Median life span
increases from 86 years in 2005 to 102 years in
2105 Data Source Human mortality database
29
Population projection with continuous mortality
decline scenario
30
Changes in population pyramid 100 years later
31
Scenario 2
  • Negligible senescence after age 60

32
Radical scenario No aging after age 60
33
Population projection with negligible senescence
scenario
34
Changes in population pyramid 100 years later
35
Conclusions on radical scenario
  • Even in the case of defeating aging (no aging
    after 60 years) the natural population growth is
    relatively small (about 20 increase over 70
    years)
  • Moreover, defeating aging helps to prevent
    natural population decline in developed countries

36
Acknowledgments
  • This study was made possible thanks to
  • generous support from the National Institute on
    Aging, and
  • stimulating working environment at the Center
    on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

37
Acknowledgments
  • This study was made possible thanks to
  • generous support from the SENS/Methuselah
    Foundation

38
For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our
Scientific and Educational Website on Human
Longevity
  • http//longevity-science.org

And Please Post Your Comments at our Scientific
Discussion Blog
  • http//longevity-science.blogspot.com/

39
(No Transcript)
40
  • Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory
    of aging and longevity. In Handbook of the
    Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition
    (published recently).
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