Terrorism Threat Assessment

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Terrorism Threat Assessment

• For Megaports Initiative

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Presentation Structure

• Terrorist Attacks and Characteristics
• Rationality of Concern
• Incidents of Interest
• Threat and Modus Operandi Profile

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Terrorist Tactics

• Aerial Maritime - Ground attack

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Aircraft as guided missile (11 Sep 2001)
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SuperFerry14 Bombing off Manila bay (27 Feb
2004)
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Truck Bomb JW Marriott Islamabad (20 Sep
2008)
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Characteristics of Contemporary attack

• Indiscriminate targeting civilian victims
• Mass casualty
• Lethal weapons (including CBRN)

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What is Terrorism?

• Politically motivated violence or threat of
  violence designed to coerce others into actions
  or to refrain from actions
• But..

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What is Terrorism?

• No consensus on its definition
• Still..
• There are..
• 3 International Conventions mentioned
  terrorist/terrorism

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International Convention

• International Convention for the Suppression of
  Terrorist Bombings (1997)
• International Convention for the Suppression of
  the Financing of Terrorism (1999)
• International Convention for the Suppression of
  Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (2005)

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Rationality of Concern

• International Convention on Nuclear Terrorism
  (2005)
• Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment.
  Director of National Intelligence USA (12 Feb
  2009)
• Strategy for Countering International Terrorism.
  UK (March 2009)

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International Convention on Nuclear Terrorism
(2005)

• acts of terrorism
• - possess/use (radioactive material, device)
  unlawfully and intentionally
• - to cause death/ serious bodily injury
• - to cause substantial damage to property/
  environment
• - to compel person/international organization/
  state to do or refrain from doing an act
• - accomplice/ organize/ direct

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Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment

• The terrorist CBRN threat
• we will continue to face a substantial threat..
  from terrorists attempting to acquire biological,
  chemical, and possibly nuclear weapons and use
  them to conduct large-scale attacks

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Strategy for Countering International Terrorism

• Contemporary terrorist organizations aspire to
  use chemical, biological and even nuclear
  weapons. Changing technology and the theft and
  smuggling...make this aspiration more
  realistic...

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Terrorist attack occur if
Opportunity
Capability
Motivation
Threat
Risk
Vulnerability
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Threat

• Feeling of unsafe or danger (individual and
  strategic dimension)
• Intention to take a hostile or launch attack
  against a specific target

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Vulnerability

• Characteristics of a target which could be
  exploited in an attack

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Risk

• The probability that an attack will be attempted
  and will be successful

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Terrorist Groups

• Sources of threat today
• AL QAIDA (AQ)
• AQ AFFILIATE GROUPS
• AQ INSPIRED GROUPS/ INDIVIDUALS

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Al-Qaida

• Established around 1988
• Usama Bin Ladin (UBL) and Ayman al Zawahiri are
  core leaders
• Fatwa (Feb 98) World Islamic Front Against Jews
  and Crusaders saying it was the duty of all
  Muslims to kill US citizenscivilian or
  militaryand their allies everywhere

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Al-Qaida

• The first transnational group to support the use
  of CBRN weapons against civilian targets and to
  try to use them
• UBL interviewed by Al Jazeera in 1998 ...there
  is a duty on Muslims to acquire them...

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Incidents of Interest
Ahmed Ressum, an Algerian accused of planning to
bomb the LA airport, arrested at Port Angeles on
14 Dec 1999 Testified that AQ taught to poison
people by putting toxins on doorknobs
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Incidents of Interest

• Yazid Sufaat, Malaysian JI (Al Jemaah Al
  Islamiyah) member, arrested 9 Dec 2001
• Believed to be one of AQ's anthrax researchers

Released 10 Dec 2008
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Incidents of Interest

• In August 2002, CNN released videotape recording
  AQ chemical experiment involving dogs that were
  exposed to vapors from a white liquid

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Incidents of Interest

• Jose Padilla _at_ Abdullah al Muhajir, arrested 8
  May 2002, alleged to develop and use a dirty bomb

Sentenced to 17 years and 4 months in prison (Jan
2008)
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Incidents of Interest

• Dhiren Barot, arrested Aug 2004, pleaded guilty
  of planning to murder people using a dirty bomb

Sentenced to life in prison (Nov 2006)
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Incidents of Interest

• Narong Penanam, a Thai school principal from NE
  province of Surin, arrested 13 Jun 2003, accused
  of trying to sell Cesium-137
• An example of illicit trafficking

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Incidents of Interest

• In April 2004, Chemical attack targeting
  Jordanian GID was thwarted.
• AQI-Abu Musab al-Zarqawi planned to use suicide
  truck-bomb loaded with 30 tons of chemical
  explosive.

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Threat Level of Attack

• Low - unlikely
• Moderate - possible
• Substantial - strong
• Severe - highly likely
• Critical - expected imminently

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Radiological IEDs

• Improvised conventional explosives with
  radioactive materials
• Nine radioactive materials americium-241,
  californium-252, cesium-137, cobalt-60,
  iridium-192, plutonium-238, polonium-210,
  radium-226, strontium-90

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Radiological IEDs

• Considered high-tech weapon
• Radiation exposure is something we cant see or
  feel, thus it becomes unknown source of danger

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Vulnerabilities Risks A case of International
Cooperation

• Telecommunication and high technology equipments
  private company (in Thailand), joint venture with
  Ministry of Postal Service (in N.Korea),
• Purchased (early March 2003) three sets of
  stabilized direct current power supply from
  producer (in Japan)

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Vulnerabilities Risks A case of International
Cooperation

• Custom Service (in Hong Kong)
• seized subjects (9 Apr 2003) upon request from
  Japanese counterpart,
• Enroute (3 Apr 2003) from Kobe via Hong Kong,
  and expected to arrive Laem Chabang port (11 Apr
  2003)

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Vulnerabilities Risks

• Aspiration
• Radioactive material could be obtained by
  stealing/ smuggling or buying (legal or illegal
  channels
• Cover / front organization
• False documentation

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Vulnerabilities Risks

• Small ports or on the road
• Concealment to offset detection
• Lack of security
• Cyberspace information
• Extremists infiltration

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EndofPresentation

• THANK YOU