Modeling Forum Status Report

1
Modeling Forum Status Report

• WRAP Planning Team Meeting
• February 22-23, 2006
• John Vimont, Mary Uhl, Kevin Briggs, Forum
  Co-Chairs

2
Modeling Forum Projects

• All work handled by Regional Modeling Center
• University of California Riverside
• ENVIRON
• Carolina Environmental Program
• Have instituted management tools during 2004-05
• Increased monthly conference call and reporting
  frequency
• Detailed periodic reports (2004 RMC annual, 2002
  Model Performance)
• Plans for mid-2006 report and Final Project
  report by 12/06
• Modeling simulation specification sheets
  coordinator (Gerry Mansell)

3
Modeling Forum Projects

• 2006 objectives
• Help states get past BART modeling hurdle
• Finish regional modeling for 12/2007 haze plans
• Document and archive model results
• RMC Project has been ongoing since 2000-01, plan
  is to conclude the project by 12/2006 need for
  future RMC?

4
Completed Tasks - 2005

• Completed several modeling simulations
• Base02a actual 2002 emissions
• Plan02a actual 2002 emissions, except for Fire
  which used 2000-04 average/representative data
• Base18a projected growth and control of
  point/area/all mobile emissions, held fire, dust,
  and commercial marine emissions constant to
  Plan02a values
• Emissions processing all SSJF, EF, FEJF, DEJF,
  TDDWG EIs to date are included
• 1999 Mexico EI now usable in regional model
• Fire sensitivity modeling well underway,
  complete in 3 months
• Model performance new EPA CMAQ v4.5 released in
  Fall 2005
• CAMx PSAT source apportionment model
  benchmarking and emissions processing

5
2006 Ongoing/Pending Tasks

• BART modeling support
• Get everyone on a timeline
• 36km met data to states handling CalPuff on their
  own, if desired
• BART modeling protocol CalPuff runs for AK, NM,
  NV, SD
• Others (See table following slide) what about
  AZ UT?
• Then, back to lots of regional modeling
• Base02b, plan02b, Base18b
• BART impacts across the region
• Sensitivity and control strategy runs
• Final runs for Technical Support System
  planning support
• Documentation
• Mid-year 2006 report
• Final report 12/2006
• Archive data and results

6
Tom to fill in BART help status by state
Step A BART Culpability Analysis (0.5 deciview threshold) Step B BART Engineering Analysis Step C Visibility Benefit Analysis for estimated emissions reduction from BART application
AK
AZ
CA
CO
ID
MT
NV
NM
ND
OR
SD
UT
WA
WY
Tribal


7
Regional Modeling - Future Needs

• Archive modeling results and data after 2006
• On-going funding?
• For maintaining data
• For limited staff support, data transfers, and
  question-answering
• Where and other questions not discussed in any
  detail to date
• Forum is not requesting any other new projects in
  2007

8
Regional Haze Implementation Questions

• Need regional modeling after 2006?
• Probably, but not to the scale of the present RMC
  team
• Should the Forum work to improve modeling tools
  and techniques after 2006, and when?
• When should the Forum start gearing up for the
  next round of SIP review and update?