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Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change and Human Development

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Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change and Human Development Thomas Acker Adrian Davenport Dean Howard Smith – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change and Human Development


1
Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change and
Human Development
  • Thomas Acker
  • Adrian Davenport
  • Dean Howard Smith

2
Veerle Vandeweerd UNDP
  • There is a broad global consensus that the
    severity of the climate change problem will have
    profound and lasting impacts on human well being
    and economic development, particularly amongst
    those countries and communities that have
    contributed the least to the problem, and have
    the least capacities to adapt to the adverse
    impacts of climate change.

3
IPCC Concerns
  • Many millions more people are projected to be
    flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the
    2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying
    areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low,
    and which already face other challenges such as
    tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are
    especially at risk. The numbers affected will be
    largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa
    while small islands are especially vulnerable

4
Africa
  • By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are
    projected to be exposed to an increase of water
    stress due to climate change. If coupled with
    increased demand, this will adversely affect
    livelihoods and exacerbate water-related
    problems.

5
Africa
  • Agricultural production, including access to
    food, in many African countries and regions is
    projected to be severely compromised by climate
    variability and change In some countries, yields
    from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up
    to 50 by 2020.

6
Africa
  • Local food supplies are projected to be
    negatively affected by decreasing fisheries
    resources in large lakes due to rising water
    temperatures, which may be exacerbated by
    continued over-fishing.

Lake Chad 1963
2007
7
Africa
  • New studies confirm that Africa is one of the
    most vulnerable continents to climate variability
    and change because of multiple stresses and low
    adaptive capacity.

Get up Joe, were leaving.
8
Dean was Leaving
  • This is the project I want to develop

Tom, Mason, Neil and others talked me into staying
9
The Global Heartache
  • No community with a sense of justice, compassion
    or respect for basic human rights should accept
    the current pattern of adaptation. Leaving the
    worlds poor to sink or swim with their own
    meagre resources in the face of the threat posed
    by climate change is morally wrong. We are
    drifting into a world of adaptation
    apartheid. Desmond Tutu

10
World Bank (Old Data)
  • 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity.

11
Bridging the Divide Between Poverty Reduction and
Climate Change Through Sustainable and Innovative
Energy Technologies SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY INNOVATIONS THAT CAN ADDRESS CLIMATE
CHANGE CONCERNS AND POVERTY REDUCTION
NEEDS December 2009 Dr. Anilla Cherian UNDP
12
Climate change will affect every aspect of human
life, and disproportionately on those poorer and
more vulnerable countries and communities, that
have contributed the least to the causes.
Increasing and improving access to
cost-effective, innovative, and sustainable
energy technologies for the poor is critical for
addressing both climate change and poverty
reduction concerns in many developing countries.
International cooperation on adaptation can be
thought of as an insurance mechanism for the
worlds poorFor governments concerned with
achieving progress toward the MDGs over the next
decade and building on that progress afterwards,
adaptation is the only option for limiting the
damage caused by existing climate change.
13
Millennium Development Goals By 2015?
  • Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
  • Achieve universal primary education
  • Promote gender equality and empower women
  • Reduce child mortality

14
Millennium Development Goals
  • Improve mental health
  • Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
  • Ensure environmental stability
  • Develop a global partnership for development

15
2010 MDG Report
  • "It is clear that improvements in the lives of
    the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some
    hard-won gains are being eroded by the climate,
    food and economic crises," UN Secretary-General
    Ban Ki-moon

16
What is your Reality?
17
The Concerns
  • Indoor cooking
  • Over 2 million deaths per year
  • Potable water
  • Extreme disease
  • Distances to carry
  • Food stress
  • Overall health
  • Education
  • Singing and dancing

18
UNDP
  • A clear positive causative correlation between
    energy access and use and the resulting level of
    development

This woman walks 12 km one way daily for water.
How productive is she earning a living?
19
The Kenya Design
  • 200 houses
  • 100 Kw wind turbine
  • Hydro pumping and co-generation
  • H2O pumping and desalination
  • Irrigation
  • Grain mill
  • Compressed air vehicle
  • Design on board

20
BP Solar SPOTS
  • Home lighting has increased the productivity of
    households primarily because of the 4 to 5.5
    additional hours put into traditional income
    generating activities.
  • The incidence of waterborne diseases in SPOTS
    areas has decreased from 17.72 (2003) to 0.9
    (2005).

21
The provision of solar powered vaccine
refrigerator for health centers has increased the
accessibility of health services.
Street lights have also encouraged the expansion
of business activities from within the confines
of the homes to the roadsides.
More than 350 Solar Operators, of which about
100 are women, have been trained to maintain and
repair the systems.
More than 80 cooperatives created under SPOTS 1
are generating income from the operation of
several businesses.
Introduction of electric lighting systems in 80
schools increased educational performance and
allowed for adult education in the evening.
22
(No Transcript)
23
Measures of Success
  • In class exercise
  • Take 4 minutes
  • Utility max?
  • Barbara Ward (1962)
  • Quote
  • What does it take to sing and dance?

24
UNPP Projections (2008) (thousands)
2010 6 908 688
2015 7 302 186
2020 7 674 833
2025 8 011 533
2030 8 308 895
2035 8 570 570
2040 8 801 196
2045 8 996 344
2050 9 149 984
How many are too many?
25
Obama at Copenhagen
  • We must have financing that helps developing
    countries adapt, particularly the least-developed
    and most vulnerable to climate change. America
    will be a part of fast-start funding that will
    ramp up to 10 billion in 2012.

26
More Promises
  • And, yesterday, Secretary Clinton made it clear
    that we will engage in a global effort to
    mobilize 100 billion in financing by 2020, if -
    and only if - it is part of the broader accord
    that I have just described.

Her Reality?
27
Can it be Achieved?
  • Mitigation. Transparency. And financing. It is a
    clear formula - one that embraces the principle
    of common but differentiated responses and
    respective capabilities. And it adds up to a
    significant accord - one that takes us farther
    than we have ever gone before as an international
    community.

December 18, 2009, Copenhagen UN Climate Change
Conference 2009.
28
Basic Economics
  • Link the revenues from the cap trade programs
    that internalize the externalities to the actual
    adaptation and mitigation costs arising from
    climate change.

Solar pumps in Africa increase agricultural produc
tivity and access to water. Courtesy of UNEP.
29
Our Guess
  • Obama meant 100 billion per year

?
30
Tim Flannerys Model
  • Use Ebay-type auctions to buy/sell CO2 permits
    for reforestation in Central America
  • Villages build business plans
  • Satellite and blogs for verification
  • Coordinate via Greenpeace or WWF

31
Some Simple, but Chunky, Math
  • 200 houses per village
  • 5 people per household
  • 1,600,000,000 Number of people in need of
    electricity
  • 1,600,000 number of villages

32
100,000,000,000 Per Year
cost per village 1 million 2.5 million 5 million
villages 100,000 40,000 20,000
houses 20,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000
people per year 100,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000
total needing electricity 1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000
of years 16 40 80
ME 451 class project, Fall 2010 Recall, there are
no manufacturers!
33
World Energy Outlook 2009
  • OECD countries energy related emissions
  • Target 7,700,000,000 gigatonnes
  • Target the 450 ppm scenario
  • Many feel this is very high
  • Target 50/tonne carbon valuation
  • 385,000,000,000 total revenue per year
  • Dont begin until 2030

34
385 Billion per year
cost per village 1 million 2.5 million 5 million
villages 385,000 154,000 77,000
houses 77,000,000 30,800,000 15,400,000
people per year 385,000,000 154,000,000 77,000,000
total needing electricity 1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,600,000,000
of years 4.16 10.39 20.78
Strange presumption that all revenues go to this
project
35
Step Fashion
100B/year starting in 2020 and then 385B/year
cost per village 1 million 2.5 million 5 million
by 2030 1,000,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000
needed after 2030 600,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000
years post 2030 1.6 7.8 18.2
36
Weak Assumptions
  • All money will go to the electrification projects
  • No additional expenses for adaptation or
    mitigation
  • No increase in electricity needs
  • All new population has no need
  • No replacements over the project life
  • Recall 75-250 million in Africa alone prior to
    2020 in food and water stress

37
Conclusion
  • Climate change will have serious consequences for
    those least able to adapt.
  • COE charges can be used to ameliorate the
    situation by providing access to clean
    electricity and energy
  • The timing simply doesnt work

38
Need
  • As Tim Flannery says Now or Never. For many
    families never.
  • People under water (too much and/or too little)
    and food stress simply have to move.
  • Where will they go?
  • Matt deQueljoes new project
  • http//hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2009/
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