Campaigns and Elections

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Campaigns and Elections
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Candidates

• self-starters vs. recruited by parties
• Motivation
• Profile

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(No Transcript)
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Changing campaign styles

• More personalized
• Less reliant on organization
• More expensive
• More professionals, less volunteers

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Stump Speaking by George Caleb Bingham c.
1830s
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Warren Hardings Front Porch Campaign Mass
Media Election, 1920
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Harry Trumans Whistle Stop Campaign, 1948
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Television Campaign Ads
Are the biggest part of spending in modern
campaigns.

• They can be designed to promote a candidate in a
  number of ways
• Present a biography Introduce the candidate
• Claim accomplishments/record
• Compare to other candidates
• Respond to other ads

An example
Ronald Reagans Morning in America (1984)
Into which category does this fall?
LBJ Daisy (1964)
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Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary dominate
early political news coverage
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Primaries

• Closed
• Open
• Blanket
• Run-off

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Caucus
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1860 GOP Convention
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The Convention

• Presidential candidates have been nominated by
  the convention method in every election since
  1832.
• Seating the Delegates.
• Convention Activities.
• Speech making
• Platform formulation
• Presidential Balloting
• Acceptance Speeches
• Becoming less relevant

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Campaign Finance Terminology
Hard money Soft money Air war Ground war
Political Action Committees (PACs)
Harry Louise Issue Ad
527 Groups (or Committees)
If Parents Acted Like Bush
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Regulations

• Hatch Act (1939)
• Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)
• McCain-Feingold (2002)

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(Historical) Legal Regulations on Registration

• Poll Tax
• Literacy Test
• Requiring re-registration at periodic intervals
• Purging for nonvoting
• Residency requirements
• Closing date for registration
• Office hours for registration may be limited to
  regular business hours
• Registration offices can be limited or widely
  available
• Deputy registrars
• Absentee registration

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Wolfinger Rosenstones Hypotheses

• Hypotheses
• Consequential restrictions
• Reforms suggested

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Voter turnout
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Electoral Law

• Most states require registration
• Elections occur on a Tuesday
• Votes must be cast in the assigned precinct
  during polling hours
• Absentee ballots need to be requested in advance
• Elections are SMDP

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Machinery of Elections
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How voters decide

• Socio-economic and demographic factors
• Education
• Income/socio-economic status
• Religion
• Ethnicity/Race
• Gender
• Age
• Region
• Psychological factors
• Party identification
• Perception of the candidates in terms of image
  and trustworthiness
• Issue preferences, especially on economic issues

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Party ID measured on a seven-point scale
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Cartogram of Electoral College Votes
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(No Transcript)
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The Electoral Map 10/15 (Time)
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2004 Results State Level
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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2004 Results State (pop adj)
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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2004 Results State (EC adj)
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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2004 Results County Level
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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2004 Results County Level (pop adj)
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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2004 Results County (intensity)
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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2004 Results County (intensity, pop)
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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Caveat Sometimes the polls are wrong