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Climate Change: Impacts on Coastal Systems

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Climate Change: Impacts on Coastal Systems Presentation by Michael Harte Oregon Sea Grant Director of Marine Resource Management College of Oceanic & Atmospheric Sciences – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change: Impacts on Coastal Systems


1
Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Systems
Presentation by Michael Harte Oregon Sea Grant
Director of Marine Resource Management College
of Oceanic Atmospheric Sciences OREGON STATE
UNIVERSITY
2
Oregons Likely Future Climate
3
Predicted Rainfall Changes in Oregon
PNW rainfall will be about the same or a little
higher
4
Predicted Temperature Changes in Oregon
PNW temperatures will increase
5
Sea Level Changes
Sea level will likely increase
6
Climate-related Changes in Terrestrial Coastal
Systems
7
Scientific Consensus on Impacts on the PNW from
future climate change
8
Impacts depend on where you live on the coast,
natural characteristics and influence of coastal
development.
9
  • Potential Impacts
  • Increased coastal erosion.
  • High tide inundation of very low-lying coastal
    margins.
  • Episodic flooding of higher coastal estuarine
    margins.
  • Salinisation of adjacent rivers and streams and
    landward intrusion of saline groundwater.

10
  • Potential Impacts
  • Drainage problems in adjacent low-lying areas.
  • Loss of intertidal areas and beaches where hard
    beach protection exists.
  • Increased rates and frequency of wave run-up and
    overtopping of natural and man made coastal
    defenses.

11
Climate-related Changes in Marine Ecosystems
12
If the predictions are right - Ocean Ecosystems
Harley et al. 2006
Intensified upwelling? Increased ocean
temperature? Increased ocean acidity? Changes
in plankton food chains?
13
Changes in types of fish and their abundance
  • California current ecosystem has changed often in
    the past
  • Any changes due to predicted warming will be
    difficult to detect because of high natural
    variability
  • Changes that do occur will affect commercial
    fisheries and recreational fisheries

14
Impacts on PNW Salmon
15
Salmon - Loss of Habitat
Salmon Habitat Lost in OR, ID, WA
  • By 2030 OR could lose15 of its salmon habitat
  • By 2090 OR could lose 45 of its salmon habitat

ISAB Climate Change Report 2007
  • OR will lose more habitat than WA or ID
  • Trout habitat less impacted than salmon habitat
    because salmon are restricted to warmer waters by
    dams and other barriers

16
Salmon - Ocean survival
  • Warmer waters reduce salmon survival
  • Decreased food supply
  • Higher metabolic rates and less growth
  • Increased migration distances
  • Increased predation by warm water species

Source Peterson et al. 2006
17
Take Home Messages
  • Climate impacts on terrestrial coastal systems
    depend on location - north or south, local
    characteristics and nature extent of human
    development
  • Changes in marine ecosystems will be
    unpredictable difficult to separate out from
    natural variability for some time to come
  • Salmon populations are particularly sensitive to
    climate change at all life stages -
  • Oregons coastal ecosystems - marine and
    terrestrial - are adapted for change.
  • Human development and dependence on coastal
    services may not be so adaptable to change unless
    it is planned for.
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