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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

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Title: THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED


1
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
01 November 2005
Climate Community
Climate Test Bed
Research Development
NOAA Climate Forecast Operations

Mission to accelerate the transition of research
and development into improved NOAA operational
climate forecasts, products, and applications.
2
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
  • Motivation
  • CTB Role
  • Framework
  • Infrastructure
  • Transition Projects Science Priorities
  • Organization
  • 1st CTB Annual Meeting
  • Objectives Expected Outcome

3
MOTIVATION (Scientific)
  • NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled
    Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I
    applications that shows considerable promise.
  • The CFS is a significant step forward in
    forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having
    achieved at least parity with statistical
    forecasts.
  • Faster development of NOAA climate forecast
    systems is needed to improve on these forecasts
    and to provide more useful climate forecast
    products and applications.
  • Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use
    by climate researchers is an optimal way to
    leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external
    community in order to accelerate the necessary
    improvements.

4
Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF
97/98 DJF 03/04)
5
MOTIVATION (Programmatic)
  • In order to achieve the blend of internal and
    external efforts required to improve NOAA
    operational climate forecast systems, a Climate
    Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized.
  • The CTB will
  • provide more traction and visibility to
    intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by
    accelerating the transition to NOAA climate
    forecast operations
  • provide an operational testing environment to
    support projects that result in a direct
    influence on NOAA climate forecast operations
  • provide infrastructure and resources for (long
    term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on
    broader research issues affecting NOAA climate
    forecast operations.

6
CTB ROLE
  • What does the CTB bring thats genuinely new?
  • A Focus on Transition
  • A Means of Engagement for the research,
    operations and applications communities
  • A Mechanism for Distribution of Models Data.  

7
A FOCUS ON TRANSITION
  • In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must
    define a process to
  • Identify and communicate the scope of
    responsibilities for the Research
    (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A)
    communities.  
  • Identify and delineate different types of
    transition
  • R2O define where O picks up responsibility, and
    at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs.
  • O2A define where A picks up responsibility, and
    at what juncture a hand-off from O occurs.
  • Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure
    smooth transitions.  

8
Applying the Funnel to the Transition Process
Research and Development
1
  • Large volume of RD,
  • funded through AOs,
  • Agency Labs
  • Smaller set of RD
  • products suitable for
  • operations.
  • 3. Systematic transition steps
  • R2O.
  • 4. Systematic transition steps
  • O2A
  • Delivery to diverse USER
  • community

2
R2O
NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an
operational infrastructure for the transition
process
3
Operations
N C E P
4
O2A User Community
5
9
RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES (Pan et al.)
  • The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP
    operational climate model suite consists of the
    following steps
  • Model development and refinement
  • Preliminary assessment
  • Calibration
  • Interface with operations
  • Final skill assessment
  • Parallel tests
  • Approval
  • Roles of host (research) institution and the
    operational center must be clear for each step to
    ensure smooth transitions.
  • Resources are needed for both the research and
    operations communities to ensure smooth
    transitions.

10
OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES
  • The path for implementation of operational tools
    in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists
    of the following steps
  • Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts)
  • Assigning weights to each tool
  • Systematic error correction
  • Specific output variables (T2m precip for US
    SST Z500 for global)
  • Available in real-time
  • Need to identify and refine steps for other types
    of O2A
  • Delivering models and data to the community
    NOMADS Server
  • Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts
    (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx)
  • Roles of the operational center and the
    applications community must be clear for each
    step to ensure smooth transitions.
  • Resources are needed for both the operations and
    applications communities to ensure smooth
    transitions.

11
A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT
  • Collaboration with the climate community is key
  • Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and
    Transition Project Teams include private sector
    and international members
  • Expand collaborative transition projects (AOs)
  • Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and
    Visiting Scientist Program
  • Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA
    line offices, other agencies and external
    stakeholders.

12
CTB LINKS TO
OTHER PROGRAMS
  • CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR GEWEX Programs
  • U.S. (NOAA Climate and Global Change Program -
    CDEP, CPPA, CLIVAR)
  • International (WCRP VAMOS NAME, MESA, VOCALS,
    AMMA)
  • CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs)
  • NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data
    Assimilation
  • Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data
    assimilation infrastructure
  • Improved use of satellite data (Climate
    applications, reanalysis issues, observing system
    stability)
  • Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)
  • GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible
  • Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)

13
CTB LINKS TO NOAA OGP
  • CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR GEWEX Programs
  • CPPA
  • Climate Process and modeling Teams (NAME warm
    season precip forecasts)
  • Drought monitoring and prediction ( LDAS - soil
    moisture NIDIS)
  • Hydrologic prediction (H2O Resource Mgmt)
  • CLIVAR Pacific
  • Predictability of climate variability (ENSO, MJO,
    AO) in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales
  • CLIVAR Atlantic
  • Predictability of Atlantic Marine ITCZ related
    rainfall in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales
  • CDEP ARCS / IRI
  • Seasonal climate forecast products / tools
    (drought, agriculture, fire applications)
  • Multi-model ensembles (FY06)
  • Quantification of predictability

14
CTB FRAMEWORK
  • Infrastructure
  • Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA Red Research
    Computer)
  • System and Science Support Teams (models, data,
    diagnostics)
  • Contractors, Technical Assistants, System
    Administrators
  • Management and Administrative Staff
  • Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant
  • Transition Projects
  • Base (internally) Funded
  • Short Term potential for impact on operations
    in 2 years or less
  • FTEs reallocated from NCEP and other line
    offices
  • Announcements of Opportunity
  • Long term potential for impact on operations in
    2 or more years
  • Projects are reviewed, competitive, community
    wide, broader science issues
  • NOAA or external lead PIs
  • Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

15
CURRENT CTB RESOURCES
  • NCEP Contributions
  • Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer)
  • 23 Redirected FTEs
  • Management Team 0.5 (CPC) 0.25 (EMC) 0.25
    (CPC)
  • System Support Team (data, software) 4 (CPC)
    0.5 (EMC)
  • Science Support (Transition Project Teams) 16
    (CPC) 4 (EMC)
  • NOAA Climate Program Office
  • Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure
    (System Support TA in FY05, FY06) Additional
    funding for near term and competitive transition
    projects.
  • CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects
    (FY06)

16
CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE
TRANSITION PROJECTS
  • Current (FY05 and FY06) Short Term plans
  • Assessments of the Current Version of NCEP
    CFS/GFS
  • Objective Model Consolidation for Generating
    Official Forecasts
  • Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
    System
    (Set up GFDL S/I hindcast
    system on NCEP computer reproducibility tests)
  • Future (FY07 ) Long Term plans
  • Assessments of the Next (n1) Version of NCEP
    CFS/GFS
  • Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction
    System
  • Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
  • Drought Monitoring and Prediction Support NIDIS
  • Development of Regional Application Products
    (e.g. Energy, Agriculture, Water, Fire Wx)
  • Advanced Forecast Capabilities (e.g. Ecosystems
    Air Chemistry Carbon Cycle Fisheries)

17
ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n1) VERSION
OF THE CFS/GFS
  • Possible Upgrades for the next (n1) version of
    CFS/GFS are coming into focus
  • Land Couple Noah LSM to CFS
  • Ocean MOM4
  • Resolution T126
  • Physics Convective parameterization
    Multi-physics ensemble
  • Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of future
    changes to CFS/GFS are needed prior to
    implementation.
  • Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets
    to the community.
  • Caveat Less emphasis on evaluation of older
    versions of the CFS/GFS in favor of the newer
    version(s).  

18
DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEM
  • NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the
    strategy for a MM Ensemble Prediction System.
  • CTB can coordinate "National" models that
    contribute to accelerated improvements in S/I
    climate predictions and projections, both in
    real-time products and with research that
    contributes to the CCSP and IPCC.
  • National models are global ocean-atmosphere
    coupled models
  • NCEP/CFS
  • GFDL/CM2
  • NASA/GEOS 5
  • NSF/CCSM
  • CTB can coordinate with any of several
    Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g.
    European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC).
  • The roles and responsibilities of the host
    institutions and the operational center(s) must
    be clearly spelled out, commensurate with
    resources, to ensure smooth transitions.  

19
ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
  • CTB can promote and coordinate synthesis of
    ongoing (oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric)
    reanalysis activities within NOAA, across
    agencies and internationally.
  • Benefits
  • NOAA Can take full advantage of established CTB
    infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB,
    teams, computer).
  • Can coordinate and provide resources for (long
    term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on
    broader issues related to climate reanalysis that
    contribute to improved understanding of climate
    variability and change and enhance climate
    prediction.
  • Management
  • Project Manager for Interagency Coordination and
    a Program Manager to coordinate reanalysis
    activities within NOAA, across agencies, and
    internationally.

20
DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION
  • Proposal Designate the GAPP Core Project and its
    external RD collaborators as the Climate
    Process Team for Land on the CTB
  • Activities
  • Couple Noah LSM to T126 version of CFS Calibrate
  • Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts
  • Development of a Drought Early Warning System.
  • Benefits
  • Coordinate with Operational Drought Monitoring
    and Prediction
  • Support NIDIS
  • Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

21
CTB ORGANIZATION
Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO
Science Advisory Board
Director Higgins (CPC)
Program Manager Ji (OGP)
Deputies Pan (EMC) Gelman (CPC)
Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA
NCAR OST OCCWS COLA IRI EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal
Points)
Science / Software Support from Contractors
TAs, SAs
Test Bed Users
22
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB
  • Oversight Board (OB)
  • Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA
    Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB
    activities.
  • Climate Science Team (CST)
  • Guides CTB activities at the working level
    evaluates results of CTB activities makes
    recommendations to the CTB management on
    computing resource usage and access
  • Science Advisory Board (SAB)
  • Works with the broader climate community to
    provide independent expert advice on
    high-priority scientific challenges coordinates
    with other programs (e.g.,
    CLIVAR, GEWEX)
  • Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB
    Website http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ct
    b

23
CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS
  • Q1 Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOPs)
  • Q1 CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November
    16, 2004)
  • Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams
  • Model parameterization,
  • Model sensitivity
  • Assessments
  • Climate data assimilation (ocean and land)
  • Multi-model ensembles
  • Climate products and applications
  • Q2 Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and
    Science Support Teams)
  • Q2 Established OB, CST and SAB
  • Q2 Implemented CTB website
  • Q2 CTB ToR , White Paper and Transition to
    Operations Plan
  • Q3 CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO

24
CTB MILESTONES (FY06)
  • CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2nd
    Draft)
  • Support external CTB users to the extent
    resources are available
  • Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer
    and begin to test reproducibility of data
    compared to runs on GFDL computer
  • Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on
    publicly accessible server
  • Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool
    to improve its use of skill information
  • Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for
    ongoing analysis of the climate system

25
CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11)
  • Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS
  • Complete experimental testing of tier-1
    multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMCGFDL)
  • Transition NASA model to CTB
  • Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB
  • Complete experimental testing of tier-1
    multi-model ensemble forecast system
    (EMCGFDLCCSMNASA)
  • Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for
    NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS

26
The CTB Message
  • The NOAA CTB will
  • Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA
    operational and research centers and the broader
    external research and applications communities by
    providing an operational testing facility that
    facilitates smooth transitions.
  • Deliver opportunities for goal directed research
    using the Climate Forecast System, other climate
    models, and a state of the art multi-model
    ensemble approach to improving climate
    prediction.
  • Accelerate the transition of research advances
    into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts,
    products and applications.
  • Increase the range and scope of applications,
    and the economic benefit, of operational climate
    forecasts for policy-making and decision-making
    by end users.

27
1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVES
  • Engage the community in a discussion of CTB
    progress and plans
  • Discuss improve the strategy for collaboration
    with the community
  • Gather independent expert advice on future CTB
    science priorities.
  • Overall Goal to help focus the community
    towards the CTB mission and
    objectives

28
1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA
  • Oral Sessions ( 6-30 minute talks each)
  • Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS) (Mon AM)
  • Multi Model Ensembles (Mon PM)
  • Climate Forecasts and Applications (Tue AM)
  • Poster Session (Mon AM)
  • Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting
    (Mon PM)

29
EXPECTED OUTCOME
  • Independent expert advice on CTB FY07 Science
    Priorities (SAB written Summary Report)
  • Update CTB Science Priorities and Transition
    Plan (CTB Management)
  • CTB Annual Report (CTB Management)
  • Provide guidance to participating agencies and
    institutions
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