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Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia

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Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia Climate Change Impacts in Colombia What the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found: Retreat of glaciers are ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia


1
Topic 6 Climate change and climate models in
Colombia
2
Climate Change Impacts in Colombia
  • What the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found
  • Retreat of glaciers are affecting already
    compromised water availability for consumption or
    hydropower generation TS4.2 13.2.4.
  • Between 1990-2000 a 82 reduction in glaciers,
    showing a linear withdrawal of the ice of 10-15 m
    yearly. Under the current climate trends,
    glaciers of the country will disappear completely
    within the next 100 years Table 13.3
  • In the future, sea level rise, weather and
    climatic variability and extremes modified by
    global warming are very likely to have impacts on
    mangroves 13.4.4.
  • SLR of 1.0 m would permanent flood 4,900 km2 of
    low lying coast. About 1.4 million people would
    be affected, 7,208,299 ha of crops and pasture
    will be lost Table 13.7.

3
Predictability of weather and climate
Trenberth
4
Climate Models as a tool for future projections
CAM T341- Jim Hack
5
(No Transcript)
6
What is behind a climate model
  • 3-dimension mathematical Grid
  • Based on physical laws
  • Represented by equations
  • Horizontal Resolution 150-500 km

www.bom.gov.au
7
Future of GCM Earth System Models
Ice Sheet
IPCC, 2001
8
Auflösung GCM Earth System Model
GlobalGeneral Circulation
IPCC AR3 1998
Continentallarge-scaleflow
IPCC AR4 2004 4TF
Regional
local
IPCC AR5 2010 500TF
L. Buja, NCAR, 2007
9
GCMs for impact assessments
10
Dynamical Downscaling - RCM
www.climateprediction.net
Regional Climate Model
  • 10-50 km horizontal resolution
  • time-slice experiments
  • CTRL (e.g. 1961-1990)
  • SCEN (e.g. 2071-2100)
  • Initial and lateral conditions provided by GCM
    (scenario) or Reanalyses (current climate)

11
Statistical Downscaling
UC, Santander, Spain
12
IPCC GCM results
13
IPCC GCM results
Temperature at 2030 Averages and Extremes
14
IPCC GCM results
Precipitation 2030 Averages and Extremes
15
IPCC GCM web tool
16
Group 6 CC and Climate Models in Colombia
  • Which large scale atmospheric circulation pattern
    influence Colombias climate, and how?
  • IPCC GCM analysis (web tool) What past climate
    trends and future projections for Colombia can be
    detected?
  • Based on the IPCC GCM analysis How relate your
    findings to the impacts found by IPCC for
    Colombia (first slide)?
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