UK Housing Benefit Reforms: A Spatial Analysis of Local Housing Allowance (LHA) Changes on Leeds

1
UK Housing Benefit Reforms A Spatial Analysis
of Local Housing Allowance (LHA) Changes on Leeds

• Stuart Hodkinson, Mark Birkin and Chris Thompson
• School of Geography (SOG)
• University of Leeds, UK
• July 2012

2
Research Aims and Data

• Aims
• Understand the geographical distribution of
  Housing Benefit cuts across Leeds to identify
  who is affected, by how much and where they
  live
• Explore the possible displacement effects of
  Housing Benefit cuts
• Understand how neighbourhoods may change as a
  result of Housing Benefit cuts, Welfare Reform
  and Housing Policy changes
• Data
• We are using anonymised data provided by Leeds
  City Council of 66,983 housing benefit claimants
  (both social and private) that made up the
  January 2011 caseload in Leeds
• In some slides, we are using LCCs analysis of
  September 2011 caseload - this will be
  highlighted

3
Tenure Profile of HB claimants
April 2008 to January 2011
4
Housing Benefit Rule Changes we have analysed
1-5, and 8

Rule Description For existing claimants
1 LHA rates move to 30th percentile local market From January 2012
2 Abolition of 15 excess From April 2011
3 Abolition of 5-bedroom rate From January 2012
4 Introduction of absolute caps on weekly LHA rates From January 2012
5 Extension of shared room rate to single 25-34 year old From January 2012
6 Up-rating LHA rates by CPI rather than market rents From April 2013
7 Extra bedroom for disabled with non-resident carer From April 2012
8 Increasing non-dependant deductions 4 April 2011
9 Under-occupying working age social tenant cuts From April 2013
5
Impact on LHA ClaimantsDWP data vs. Our data
Rules 1-4 (15, 30th, caps, 5-bed) Rules 1-4 (15, 30th, caps, 5-bed) Inc. 25-34 non-deps
March 2010 GB Leeds - DWP Leeds - SOG
Total affected 937,000 15,610 16,692
Average loss (pw) 12 7 16
Shared rate 73,610 3,180 (3) 2240 (7.31)
1-bed rate 386,560 5,970 (7) 6852 (18.82)
2-bed rate 328,250 4,390 (8) 5132 (13.14)
3-bed rate 112,550 1,490 (7) 1780 (18.62)
4-bed rate 27,900 450 (12) 531 (22.56)
5-bed rate 8,100 130 (21) 151 (55.90)
Total loss p/a 58.5m 5.7m 13.84m
6
Leeds Weekly loss by LHA rate and range
LHA Rate Count Average Max
shared 2240 7.31 50.32
1 6852 18.82 74.06
2 5132 13.14 27.35
3 1780 18.62 35.77
4 531 22.56 46.49
5 151 55.90 163.92
Total claimants
Count 16692
Average 15.95
Max 163.92
lt10 3114
10_lt20 11139
20_lt30 935
30_lt40 234
40_lt50 495
50 775
These tables show the total number of losers by
LHA rate with their average and max losses, and
the range of loss in 10 bands
7

• Key geographical stories by Ward and Lowest Super
  Output Areas (LSOAs)

8
Geography of LHA claimant count
Jan 2011
9
Total number of HB claimants losing
10
How much local areas lose () per week (LSOA)
11
Average weekly loss () per claimant by LSOA
12
Total numbers of 25-34 Single affected by LSOA
NB Based on LCC analysis of September LHA
caseload
13
Impact on Wards
Ward Name Ward code Average Total Count Average loss / Ward population
Harehills 00DAFM 16.70 29131.14 1744 2.90
City and Holbeck 00DAFH 16.89 27260.65 1614 3.42
Beeston 00DAFD 15.40 15506.97 1007 1.67
University 00DAGF 14.79 14580.27 986 1.89
Halton 00DAFL 15.99 15751.48 985 2.23
Armley 00DAFB 15.81 13657.06 864 1.26
Burmantofts 00DAFF 15.36 14041.56 914 1.70
Chapel Allerton 00DAFG 15.31 10212.43 667 1.28
Roundhay 00DAGD 14.89 9379.32 630 1.07
Kirkstall 00DAFR 14.40 9980.12 693 0.81
Richmond Hill 00DAGB 14.20 8248.83 581 0.96
Bramley 00DAFE 13.19 7968.93 604 0.83
Morley South 00DAFW 13.99 7539.08 539 0.77
Middleton 00DAFS 14.04 6865.56 489 0.66
Pudsey North 00DAFZ 15.50 5578.67 360 0.59
Morley North 00DAFU 15.29 5610.72 367 0.65
Moortown 00DAFT 14.66 6612.31 451 0.73
Wortley 00DAGK 14.04 5728.80 408 0.59
Horsforth 00DAFP 13.34 5107.51 383 0.55
Seacroft 00DAGE 13.58 5648.96 416 0.81
Hunslet 00DAFQ 14.02 4457.63 318 0.50
Pudsey South 00DAGA 12.71 4372.46 344 0.41
Barwick and Kippax 00DAFC 13.61 4028.36 296 0.54
Headingley 00DAFN 12.94 3881.13 300 0.38
Whinmoor 00DAGJ 12.96 3874.28 299 0.41
North 00DAFX 12.34 3897.88 316 0.45
Otley and Wharfedale 00DAFY 12.04 3983.83 331 0.43
Aireborough 00DAFA 12.17 3868.51 318 0.40
Wetherby 00DAGH 13.32 4170.03 313 0.43
Cookridge 00DAFJ 13.15 3299.58 251 0.46
Rothwell 00DAGC 12.45 2751.02 221 0.30
Garforth and Swillington 00DAFK 13.67 2897.73 212 0.33
Weetwood 00DAGG 12.63 2753.38 218 0.26
Average loss per Ward resident based on 2001
census data
14
Impact on most deprived LSOA areasIMD 2007
IMD Percentile for Leeds Average Total Claimants losing Loss as of rent
0.1 13.22 4268.67 323 4.75
0.2 13.90 8967.76 645 4.98
0.3 14.08 13225.19 939 5.11
0.4 13.46 16121.86 1198 5.02
0.5 14.23 17047.22 1198 5.55
0.6 14.08 19206.81 1364 5.76
0.7 15.26 26219.00 1718 6.63
0.8 14.29 28951.37 2026 6.34
0.9 14.75 30494.35 2068 7.50
1 15.53 108183.26 6964 9.21
deprived
15
Top 10 losing LSOAs with reference to Index of
Multiple Deprivation (2007)
Worst hit areas by Total Weekly Loss of HB income by area Worst hit areas by Total Weekly Loss of HB income by area Worst hit areas by Total Weekly Loss of HB income by area Worst hit areas by Total Weekly Loss of HB income by area
LSOA Name loss IMD percentile
E01011344 Burmantofts 2698.67 1
E01011316 Beeston 2477.07 1
E01011375 City and Holbeck 2431.75 1
E01011673 University 2388.78 1
E01011368 City and Holbeck 2340.27 1
E01011433 Harehills 2090.28 1
E01011434 Harehills 2072.81 1
E01011347 Burmantofts 1945.95 1
E01011432 Harehills 1882.63 1
E01011625 Richmond Hill 1808.70 0.9
Worst hit areas - total number of HB losers Worst hit areas - total number of HB losers Worst hit areas - total number of HB losers Worst hit areas - total number of HB losers
LSOA Name Total IMD percentile
E01011344 Burmantofts 277 1
E01011316 Beeston 260 1
E01011375 City and Holbeck 228 1
E01011433 Harehills 228 1
E01011434 Harehills 223 1
E01011673 UniversityL 221 1
E01011368 City and Holbeck 212 1
E01011347 Burmantofts 208 1
E01011312 Beeston 194 1
E01011432 Harehills 193 1
Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of HB income Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of HB income Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of HB income Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of HB income
LSOA Name Average loss IMD percentile
E01011412 Halton 29.93 0.3
E01011455 Horsforth 25.20 0.1
E01011676 University 24.41 0.6
E01011703 Wetherby 24.19 0.1
E01011461 Horsforth 22.73 0.1
E01011453 Horsforth 22.11 0.2
E01011674 UniversityL 21.57 0.5
E01011672 UniversityL 20.96 0.8
E01011482 Kirkstall 20.72 0.7
E01011716 Whinmoor 20.49 0.3
Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of of rent Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of of rent Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of of rent Worst hit areas by average weekly loss of of rent
LSOA Name of rent IMD percentile
E01011455 Horsforth 24.02 0.1
E01011716 Whinmoor 14.85 0.3
E01011573 Otley and Wharfedale 14.24 0.4
E01011672 UniversityL 13.85 0.8
E01011316 Beeston 13.50 1
E01011468 Hunslet 13.02 1
E01011372 City and Holbeck 12.91 1
E01011373 City and Holbeck 12.82 1
E01011509 Moortown 12.70 0.3
E01011733 Wortley 12.69 0.7
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• Key demographic stories

17
Range of weekly average HB loss by Age /
Gender
Includes impact of LHA reforms 1-3,5 and
non-dependant deductions to all HB claimants but
exclude under-occupancy rule Gender of claimant
(thus not a full equality impact)
18
Weekly HB loss households with dependent
children
Dependent children Total households Average loss () Max loss () lt10 10_lt20 20_lt30 30_lt40 40_lt50 50
0 10858 14.41 74.06 4223 5244 130 89 446 726
1 3880 13.12 161.92 212 3573 81 12 2
2 2147 14.30 151.92 136 1742 247 14 5 3
3 984 18.98 161.92 62 519 361 25 7 10
4 372 20.82 161.92 30 171 110 44 14 3
5 130 31.81 163.92 6 56 5 38 16 9
6 51 41.64 161.92 3 19 0 12 7 10
7 9 67.83 151.92 1 3 1 0 0 4
8 7 115.38 161.92 0 2 0 0 0 5
9 4 125.19 161.92 0 1 0 0 0 3
10 1 15.00 15.00  0 1 0   0 0   
Includes impact of LHA reforms 1-3,5 and
non-dependant deductions to all HB claimants but
exclude under-occupancy rule
19
Weekly HB loss single vs two parent households
Dependent children Single Parent Average Loss () Dual Parent Average Loss ()
1 3047 13.08 833 13.27
2 1515 14.39 632 14.09
3 640 19.19 344 18.58
4 228 21.26 144 20.13
5 69 35.93 61 27.16
6 19 37.58 32 44.04
7 4 104.32 5 38.64
8 3 112.95 4 117.21
9  0   4 125.19
10  0   1 15.00
Includes impact of LHA reforms 1-3,5 and
non-dependant deductions to all HB claimants but
exclude under-occupancy rule
20
Weekly HB loss Households with Disabled People
  No one Disabled Disabled person in household No Child Disability Disabled Child Premium
Count 16528 1915 18289 154
Average 14.95 13.33 14.76 17.61
Max 163.92 151.92 163.92 151.92
lt10 4057 616 4657 16
10_20 10254 1077 11237 94
20_30 847 88 902 33
30_40 203 31 225 9
40_50 444 51 495 0
50 723 52 773 2
Includes impact of LHA reforms 1-3,5 and
non-dependant deductions to all HB claimants but
exclude under-occupancy rule This does not
include any HB gains from the LHA rate change for
disabled claimants to support carer
21
LHA levels to be up-rated by Consumer Price
Index, not rent data

• Over the period 1991-2009 rent increases
  outstripped CPI in every single year with the
  sole exception of 2009. If this trend continues,
  the change will mean that the purchasing power of
  the LHA will gradually be eroded. The effect will
  be to shrink the 30 of the market that is at
  least theoretically available to tenants claiming
  the benefit. In the long term there will come a
  point at which the cheapest property which is
  available in a given market area is more
  expensive than the full LHA rate In high cost
  regions (i.e. the greater South of England)
  accommodation affordable to benefit claimants
  will become increasingly confined to isolated low
  cost islands which may become a magnet for
  benefit claimants in the surrounding areas
• Chartered Institute for Housing (201110-11)

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CIH / Shelter analysis of CPI rate impact on
England Wales
by 2023, more than a third (34) of Englands
local authorities (excluding London) to be very
unaffordable, rising to 60 by 2030
by 2019, Leeds, Leicester and Cornwall to be
first local authority areas outside London to
become very unaffordable