Iraq War Economy

1
Iraq War Economy Displacement and Living
Conditions Khalid M. Khalid Programme
Associate UNDP Iraq
2
Contents

• Iraq pre 2003 war
• Status shortly after the war
• Displacement and violence post-Samarra bombing
• How things stand today

3
Introduction First 11 Years

• Much of what is happening today has roots the
  Bath regime rule that started 1968
• Violent changes of regime since 1958
• Bath regime coup, 1968 profound and forced
  social and economic changes
• Basic strategy concentrate power in states
  hands
• Nationalization campaign culminating in
  nationalization of oil in 1972

4
Introduction First 11 Years

• Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87 of
  total revenues
• Development projects in Education, welfare,
  industry, and capital projects

5
Introduction First 11 Years

• Revenues financed building strong political
  base
• Oppress opposition or buy them off with
  financial benefits, especially the military
• Huge development projects opened opportunities
  for the business people who had connections
  with the regime

6
Introduction Iraq-Iran War

• Foreign currency reserve over 35 Billion
• Drop in oil revenues with increase in war
  expenditure
• Foreign dept by end of war in 1988 80 Billion
• Abandonment of development projects
• Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture
  workforce
• Privatization selling of 70 large factories and
  most of agricultural land to private sector
• Infrastructure in need of repair

7
Introduction Kuwait War

• More of Iraqs infrastructure was destroyed in
  six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war
  with Iran
• Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic
  base of the country
• Severely harmed civilians
• Devaluated Dinar from ID13 to ID10001
• Increase in emigration of Iraqi brain
• Rapid deterioration in the living standards

8
Part 1 2003 Change of Regime

• Iraq is the worlds best known conflict, but the
  least well known humanitarian crisis
• Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for
  Refugees
• Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004

9
Acute Electricity Shortage

• 58 of the population were deprived of stable
  electricity supply
• Power cuts could last as much as 12 hours
• One third of the population had alternate power
  supply such as home or street generators
• Power generation was reduced from the pre-war
  level of 3,958 MW to 500 MW

10
Water and Sanitation Problems

• 40 of population reported sewage flooding
• 62 of population were dissatisfied with solid
  waste disposal
• 54 of households have piped water, only 29
  have stable supply of safe drinking water
• Rural areas and the southern regions suffered
  the most

11
Economic Hardship

• 55 of families have a low economic status
• 60 of population owned less than 8 durable
  goods
• 57 of population did not have proper employment
• 51 of families could not provide for one or
  more of keeping house warm in winter, cool in
  summer, changing furniture, buying second hand
  clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a week
• 36 of households could not earn 60 a week

12
Decline of Education Standards

• 74 literacy in youth ages 15-24 higher than
  average population, however lower than age
  group 25-34
• 89 enrolment rate for boys versus 74 for girls
• North region which previously was lower than
  other regions have become the best region in
  educational levels

13
Serious Child Malnutrition

• 12 of children between six months and five
  years are underweight
• 8 suffer from acute malnutrition
• 23 suffer from chronic malnutrition
• South regions showed highest levels of
  malnourished children
• 4 in north region lowest regions but still
  high
• Malnutrition linked to educational level of head
  of household more than economic status
• Effectiveness of ration card system
• Male and female children identical levels

14
Illness

• 14 of children under five were sick in two
  weeks preceding survey and is higher (58) in
  children under one year of age
• Contamination of piped water is the cause of the
  many cases of water-borne disease
• 15 chronic illness in men, 7 chronic illness
  in women
• Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of
  war with Iran
• Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and
  30-49
• Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in
  children under 9 than age group 20-29

15
Housing

• Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities
• Some improvised houses found in rural areas in
  Wasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan
• High level of house ownership
• High level of crowding, more in rural areas
• Crowding related to the economic status of the
  family

16
Summary of Living Conditions in 2004

• Serious problems in supply of basic
  infrastructure services (water, electricity)
• Widespread of long-term economic hardships
• Serious child malnutrition
• Stalled education achievements
• Economy in transition with an increase in
  private sector and self-employment
• Differences among regions the south worst off

17
Post-Samarra Iraq

• Core of the political crisis
• Power sharing
• Distribution of National Wealth
• Review of the Constitution
• Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the
  beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence
  in Iraq

18
New Dimensions in Displacement

• Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq
• Displacement of Kurds
• Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war
• Emigration due to discriminatory practices,
  oppression, economic hardship
• Increase in size of displacement, many-folds
  after Samarra bombing

19
IDP Numbers UNHCR

• Difficulty in number of IDPs
• Most IDPs do not live in camps
• Many IDPs do not register
• Difficulty to survey displacement areas
• Insufficient national capacities
• UN IDP figures
• UNHCR 148,000 in the period 2003-2005

Internally Displaced People in Iraq, September 2007 Internally Displaced People in Iraq, September 2007
Northern Governorates 800,900
Central Governorates 740,500
Southern Governorates 714,600
Total 2,256,000
20
IDP Numbers Ministry of Displaced and Migration

• MoDM IDP figures 999,772 (163,574 families) in
  November 2007
• 36 of IDPs are in Baghdad
• 12-15 of Baghdads population have been
  displaced

21
IDPs in Baghdad
22
IDPs in Baghdad
23
Ethnicity Distribution in Iraq
24
IDPs Living Conditions Shelter

• IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government
  at federal and governorate levels
• IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of
  Kurdistan and Kirkuk
• Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter
• MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and
  12 others in remaining governorates

25
IDPs Living Conditions Food

• IOM shows that 70 of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad,
  Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS
  rations
• Lost of livelihood resulted in greater
  dependence on the ration card
• Few families were issued special ration cards

26
IDPs Living Conditions Health

• IOM study shows that serious health problems
  among IDPs
• Few health facilities available, mostly in bad
  shape
• Percentages of IDPs with medical problems

Salahuddin 15
Kerbala 19
Maysan 29
Anbar 34
Diyala 52
Muthana 59
Babil 61
Kirkuk 73
Wasit 96
27
IDPs Living Conditions Schooling

• Great difficulties in resuming schooling
• Schooling not a priority under displacement
  conditions
• Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentation
• No school near camp
• Children to help with income generation

28
Displacement of Minorities

• Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq
• Personally subjected to violence or places of
  worship attacked
• Discrimination increased after Samarra bombing
• Minorities such as Christians, Sabia, Izidis in
  Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were
  kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change
  religion

29
Displacement Migration

• Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside
  Iraq
• Most have migrated to Syria and Jordan
• Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate
  such large numbers is reaching fatigue
• Entry restrictions to these countries has made
  it difficult for Iraqis to find a save haven

Displaced Iraqis in the Region Syria 1.2 1.4
Million Jordan 500,000 750,000 Egypt Up to
70,000 Iran 57,000 Lebanon 20,000-40,000 Turkey
10,000 Gulf States 200,000
30
Displacement Migration

• Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking
  assylum in industrialized countries
• 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in
  first six months of 2007

31
Displacement Iraqi Refugees around the world
Germany 36,200 UK 22,000 Netherlands 21,800 Swe
den 23,600 Australia 11,100 Denmark 9,900 Norwa
y 8,700 US 19,800 Switzerland 5,000 Canada 4,0
00 Finland 1,600 Italy 1,300 France 1,300 Hung
ary 1,200 Bulgaria 1,200 Austria 1,200 Greece
820 New Zealand 820 Armenia 460 Romania 450 Ir
eland 340
32
Displacement Migration

• Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for
  refugees in Jordan and Syria
• Iraqis could not work legally in Syria
• Growing number of girls and women are forced
  into sex trade to earn money for living
• In Jordan only 30 of Iraqis have work
• Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class
  that live out of savings or remittance
• Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing
  vulnerable due to depletion of resources

33
Civilian Protection

• The sheer violence directed against Iraqi
  civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in
  the world
• Perpetrators of violence are armed groups,
  criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as
  operations by security and military forces
• The majority of casualties are innocent
  civilians

34
War Related Death

• In the aftermath of 2003 invasion
• 18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS,
  Lancet 98,000)
• 12 of deaths were children
• Orphanage measured 6 than Jordan
• The 2006 Lancet report shows
• Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower
  bound 95 confidence interval 426,000 violent
  deaths
• 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first
  half of 2006. Less than tenth of them being
  noticed by public serveillance mechanisms (UN
  total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452)
• 800,000 suffered blast wounds
• Over 7 of adult male population killed in
  violence

35
War Related Death

• (Lancet findings continued)
• Number of civilians killed by coalition
  increased

36
War Related Death

• Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to
  reach a peak of 3,700 in November 2006

37
Bombings

• Multiple fatality bombings 1,613 (35 suicide)

38
Brain Slain

• Many educated people had to leave the country
  prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms,
  political oppression, and economic hardship
• After 2003 university professors and doctors
  were specifically targeted
• Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000
  left the country after 2003, 2000 were killed,
  250 kidnapped

39
Crime Looting and Kidnapping

• Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall
  of Baghdad
• Looting targeted vital public institutions
  including schools, libraries, hospitals,
  electricity installations
• 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to
  5000 years were stolen from the National Museum

40
Crime Looting the National Museum
41
Crime Looting the National Museum
42
Crime Looting and Kidnapping

• Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of
  Oil and Ministry of Interior
• Kidnapping became the most profiting profession
  in the country
• Brookings 40 kidnappings per day
• Ministry of Interior 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03
  Apr 05
• Ransoms start 250,000, negotiated to 30,000

43
Prisons

• Ministry of Human Rights 20,000 prisoners held
  with MNF, 21,000 in government prisons
• Brookings 25,100 with MNF, 37,000 with
  government
• Prison problems overcrowding, lack of judicial
  oversight
• Many held for long periods. Reports of abuse
• Recent improvements, with promise to allow
  inspection

44
Through the eyes of Iraqis

• Many surveys and assessments conducted since
  2004
• Widely varying results makes it hard to have an
  indication about trends
• Difficulty with conducting surveys
• Limitations in national capacities
• Precarious security situation

45
Through the eyes of Iraqis

• Polls to measure perceptions about situation in
  Iraq
• Central Organization for Statisitics and
  Information Technology (COSIT) poll
• D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA Today
• Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007

46
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Overall, how would you say things are going
in your life these days? Would you say things
are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very
bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very Good 8 22 13
Quite Good 31 49 57
Quite Bad 32 18 14
Very Bad 28 11 15
Refused/dont know - 1 1
47
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q What is your expectation for how things
overall in your life will be in a year from now?
Will things be much better, somewhat better,
about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse?
2007 2005 2004

Much Better 12 35 37
Somewhat Better 23 29 34
About the Same 32 14 9
Somewhat Worse 25 7 3
48
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q What is the single biggest problem facing
your life these days?
2007 2005 2004

Net Security issues 48 18 25
Net Political/military issues 13 n.a. 2
Net Economic issues 17 15 21
Net social issues 22 16 18
Net Personal issues 1 7 4
Other - 4 2
No problem - 31 18
No opinion - 9 8
49
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Do you think your children will have a
better life than you, worse, or about the same?

Better 42
Worse 37
About the Same 21
Refused/dont know -
50
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate security situation as very
good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 17 31 20
Quite good 30 30 29
Quite bad 21 17 21
Very bad 32 21 29
Refused/dont know - 1 1
51
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate availability of jobs as very
good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 3 11 7
Quite good 17 27 19
Quite bad 44 23 23
Very bad 35 34 46
Refused/dont know - 5 6
52
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate supply of electricity as
very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 2 11 8
Quite good 11 35 27
Quite bad 37 30 28
Very bad 51 24 37
Refused/dont know - 1 1
53
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate availability of clean water
as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 9 19 20
Quite good 22 39 31
Quite bad 35 27 22
Very bad 34 15 26
Refused/dont know - - 1
54
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate availability medical care as
very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 8 27 17
Quite good 23 35 34
Quite bad 35 23 24
Very bad 34 13 22
Refused/dont know - 2 3
55
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate local schools as very good,
quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 12 43 37
Quite good 31 31 35
Quite bad 35 17 15
Very bad 21 7 11
Refused/dont know - 1 3
56
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate availability of basic
household items as very good, quite good, quite
bad, or very bad?
2007 2005 2004

Very good 8 22 18
Quite good 30 38 38
Quite bad 39 23 24
Very bad 23 15 17
Refused/dont know - 2 2
57
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate availability fuel for
cooking or driving as very good, quite good,
quite bad, or very bad?

Very good 1
Quite good 11
Quite bad 40
Very bad 48
Refused/dont know -
58
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q I would like to ask you about todays
conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you
live. Would you rate ability to move safely as
very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

Very good 8
Quite good 16
Quite bad 40
Very bad 35
Refused/dont know -
59
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q For each item I read, please tell me if it has
or has not occurred nearby here?
Have occurred nearby here Have not occurred nearby here Refuse/ dont know

Car bombs, suicide attacks 32 68 -
Snipers, crossfire 30 70 -
Fighting among sectarian factions 25 75 -
Kidnappings for ransom 40 60 -
Fighting between Iraqi government and anti-government forces 34 66 -
Unnecessary violence against citizens by US or coalition forces 44 55 -
Unnecessary violence against citizens by the Iraqi police 24 76 -
Unnecessary violence against citizens by the Iraqi Army 24 76 -
Unnecessary violence against citizens by local militia forces 31 69 -
60
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Have you or an immediate family memberby
which I mean someone living in this household
been physically harmed by the violence that is
occurring in the country at this time?

Yes 17
No 83
Refused/dont know -
61
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q How concerned are you that you or someone
living in this household might in the future
become a victim of the violence that is occurring
in the country? Is that something that worries
you a great deal, somewhat, not so much, or
hardly at all?

A Great Deal 64
Somewhat 22
Not So Much 9
Hardly At All 5
Refused/dont know -
62
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q In the last few days, have you experienced
any of the following because of the situation in
our country at the present time? If Yes Have you
experienced it a great deal or somewhat?
Yes, a great deal Yes, somewhat No Refused/ dont know

Trouble sleeping 36 40 25 -
Difficulty concentrating on your work or usual activities 31 41 28 -
Feelings of anger 36 46 18 -
Feelings of depression 37 40 23 -
63
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q In order to avoid trouble, how often, if ever,
have you done any of the following over the past
year? Is it very often, quite often, not so
often or never?
Very often Quite often Not so often Never Refuse/ dont know

Avoiding going out of your home 18 33 27 22 -
Not sending your children to school 14 26 28 32 -
Avoiding passing/driving by police stations and other public buildings 20 35 25 20 -
Avoiding markets and other crowded areas 21 33 29 17 -
Avoiding checkpoints 29 36 14 20 -
Avoiding US and other coalition forces 46 35 10 9 -
Avoiding travel 21 33 29 18 -
Being careful about what you say about yourself to others 30 37 18 14 -
Avoiding going to work or to apply for work 17 26 29 28 -
64
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Who do you blame the most for the violence
that is occurring in the country?

The United States/coalition forces 31
President Bush 9
The Iraqi government 8
The Iraqi army 1
Iraqi police 1
Sunni militias/leaders 5
Shiite militias/leaders 6
Sectarian disputes 8
Al Qaeda/foreign jihadists 18
Common criminals 6
Iran 7
Other -
Refused/dont know -
65
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Which of these would be your preference to
have in command of security in this area the
Iraqi police, the Iraqi army, coalition forces,
local militia, or other extra-legal armed forces?

The Iraqi police 46
The Iraqi army 32
Coalition forces 9
Local militia 7
Other extra-legal armed forces 1
None 5
Refused/dont know -
66
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q There are areas of Iraq where in the past
Sunnis and Shiites lived together in the same
mahallah. In some of these areas people are now
separatingSunnis moving to live among Sunnis
only, Shiites moving to live among Shiites only.
Has this separating of people been happening in
this mahallah, or not? Would you say

Yes, it has happened 14
No, this mahallah (neighborhood) has been mixed and remains so 38
No, this mahallah (neighborhood) has never been mixed 47
Refused/dont know -
67
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Has this movement of people been mainly
forcible, or mainly voluntary?

Mainly Forcible 81
Mainly voluntary 19
Refused/dont know -
68
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Do you think the separation of people on
sectarian lines is a good thing or a bad thing
for Iraq?

Good thing 6
Bad thing 94
Refused/dont know -
69
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Thinking about your security, if you could
do so, would you move to a different area of the
country, or are you satisfied living in this
location?

Move to different area 19
I am satisfied living in this location 81
Refused/dont know -
70
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Again with your security in mind, if you
could do so, would you move to a different
country entirely, or are you satisfied living in
Iraq?

Move to another country 30
I am satisfied living in this location 70
Refused/dont know -
71
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Do you personally think Iraq is or is not
involved in a civil war at this time?

Yes 42
No 56
Refused/dont know 2
72
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Which of the following structures do you
believe Iraq should have in the future?
2007 2005 2004

One unified Iraq with a central government in Baghdad, 58 70 79
A group of regional states with their own regional governments and a federal government in Baghdad 28 18 14
A country divided into separate independent states 14 9 4
Refused/dont know - 3 3
73
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q There can be differences between the way
government is set up in a country, called the
political system. From the three options I am
going to read to you, which ONE do you think
would be the best for Iraq now?
2007 2005 2004

Strong leader a government headed by one man for life 34 26 28
Islamic state where politicians rule according to religious principles 22 14 21
Democracy a government with a chance for the leader to be replaced from time to time 43 57 49
Refused/dont know - 3 4
74
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Who do you think currently controls things
in our country is it the Iraqi government, the
United States, somebody else, or no one?
2007 2005

Iraqi Government 34 44
United States 59 24
Somebody else 4 17
No one controls things 3 6
Refused/dont know - 9
75
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Since the war, how do you feel about the way
in which the United States and other Coalition
forces have carried out their responsibilities in
Iraq? Have they done a very good job, quite a
good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job?
2007 2005

A Very Good Job 6 10
Quite a Good Job 18 27
Quite a Bad Job 30 19
A Very Bad Job 46 40
Refused/dont know - 5
76
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Do you strongly support, somewhat support,
somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence
of Coalition forces in Iraq?
2007 2005 2004

Strongly Support 6 13 13
Somewhat Support 16 19 26
Somewhat Oppose 32 21 20
Strongly Oppose 46 44 31
Refused/dont know - 3 10
77
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Nouri Kamel Al-Maliki is handling his job as
prime minister?

Approve 43
Disapprove 57
Refused/dont know -
78
Through the eyes of Iraqis
Thank you