Optimizing Communication of Weather Information and Uncertainty

1
Optimizing Communication of Weather Information
and Uncertainty

• Neil A. Stuart
• WASIS March 2006

2
Brief overview of research plan(From November
WASIS)

• Collect informal survey information from Jeff
  Craven regarding EM and Media preferences
• Coordinate formal survey information with Jeff
  Lazos group
• Work with Kim/Keelin/Joel/Gina for WASIS graphic
  to import into Symposium Introduction
• Steer the discussion during the AMS Symposium
  toward the research topic
• What various weather providers provide
• What information and formats their users prefer

3
Summary of the first step

• Correspondence with Jeff Craven
• No consensus on how to convey uncertainty to
  users
• EM meeting scheduled in early March so no
  feedback
• Jeff provided 2 studies on assessing uncertainty
• Standard deviations in the ensemble MOS
• Best conveyed in some graphical form, maybe bars
  and/or graphs

4
Summary of the second step

• Coordinate formal survey information with Jeff
  Lazos group
• Administrative and staffing issues prevented the
  survey from being completed and put online

5
Summary of step three

• Work with Kim/Keelin/Joel/Gina for WASIS
  graphic to import into Symposium Introduction
• I created an electronic version of the graphic
  for comments around Christmas
• Sent it to across WASIS e-mail list
• Received valuable feedback from WASIS group
• Produced graphic and used it for introduction to
  AMS Symposium
• Graphic is on the next page ?

6
How do all the partners fit into the enterprise?
Scientists Public/Private/Military Forecasters
Academia/Researchers
Sector-specific resources Development
patterns Budget/Political Factors Non-weather
information Socio-economic status Attitudes/Prefe
rences Social Capital Knowledge/Beliefs
Interpretations of Nature Meteorological
Data Temperature Precipitation Pressure Personal
Observations
?
Community Gatekeepers Emergency Managers Local
Government School Districts Ag. Extensions Fire
Department Tourist Industry News Media
Individual Decision What actions to
take Evacuate Y/N Irrigate Y/N Vacation
where/when Indoor/Outdoor function
7
Summary of final step

• Conducted the AMS Symposium on the Public/Private
  Sector Partnership
• Attended Communications Workshop at AMS Annual
  Meeting
• Attended Symposium on the Challenges of Severe
  Convective Storms panel discussion
• The Production and Communication of Severe
  Weather Warnings to the Public

8
Important notes from the Symposium

• Evolution of the NOAA Partnership Policy
• Very important to how the enterprise evolves
• Language in policy affects perceptions of risk
  within the private sector
• Too much risk for private sector when government
  can provide similar service
• Can potentially hinder progress in product
  development and multi-sector partnerships
• Hindering product development means less
  resources for research and user feedback
• Ultimate results
• Little to no progress in tailoring products to
  user needs
• Limited resources to develop products to
  creatively address uncertainty

9
Creative product development and led by the
public/government sector

• Maintenance decision support system
• Partnership between FHA and private sector
• Graphical and text interface based on
  collaborative research
• Continued optimization
• National Climatic Data Center
• Provides data for all sectors
• Data can be used to solve societal impact
  problems

10
Creative product development and collaboration
led by the private sector

• XM Satellite Marine Weather
• Collaboration between University, private sector
  and government
• Mariners with XM Satellite technology have access
  to graphics and text
• National Council on Industrial Meteorology
• Commercial Weather Services Association

11
Support for multi-sector partnerships in Academia

• National Weather Center
• Oklahoma encouraging universities to enhance the
  local and regional economy
• Univ. of Oklahoma supports industry clusters that
  compose the NWC
• Industry clusters work together
• Combine research
• Improve data
• New products and services
• New degree program at the University called
  Professional Meteorologist

12
Support for multi-sector partnerships in Academia

• Some concern about shifts in government
  priorities, affecting available funding
• Lack of money affects research and development of
  products and services
• Changes in government administration will
  continue to shift funding priorities

13
Open discussion

• Information sharing in research and development
  of products
• Need as many organized efforts within our
  profession to survey users on preferred formats
  of products
• NDFD has changed how information is delivered, so
  it is very different process of surveying users
• The sectors cant necessarily share what they
  learn about user preferences
• Non-meteorological factors influencing product
  development and user decision-making
• Psychological and social issues
• Available profit for reinvestment
• Perception of unbalanced risk in some cases
  hindering private sector from creating more
  products and services
• Intellectual property becoming more of a problem,
  especially between academia and the private
  sector

14
Open Discussion (Cont.)

• Communication within sectors perceived as
  improving, no objective evidence
• Some real-time communication occurring between
  forecasters and media via Instant Messaging
• Conveying uncertainty
• Must coordinate across Enterprise
• Will take a lot of time
• Speak users language
• Everyone has different thresholds for taking
  action
• Providing a range of scenarios is one way to
  convey uncertainty
• Next NRC report will address some of the issue
• Katrina changed the perception of the accuracy of
  weather forecasts, and affected the Rita
  evacuation
• If we need the private sector to supply user
  information, maybe the private sector should
  provide more forecasting services
• We must understand how the Enterprise acts on a
  higher level before we address issues such as
  sector roles and services based on user feedback

15
Communications Workshop

• Panel composed of Max Mayfield, CNN and TWC
  experts
• Presentations by panelists
• People take action based on recommendations from
  local officials, not actual warnings
• People dont evacuate because they dont want
  their belongings taken
• Local and national media take days of careful and
  constantly updated planning to cover the impact
  of weather disasters
• Coverage during event is necessary as it is part
  of the complete story, even though it may
  effect viewer perceptions of danger
• Coverage has to be part show business because of
  ratings
• Evacuation experiences shape future response to
  forecasts and warnings, Floyd and Rita may create
  future problems
• The Weather Channel mission statement
  specifically states not being an alarmist or
  sensationalist
• Rapidly increasing usage of cell phone and
  internet resources

16
Open Session

• False alarms have affected peoples perceptions
  of danger, hype is not just weather, but includes
  terrorism, health threats etc.
• No official study suggests live reports of severe
  weather affect public perception of weather
  hazards
• Max Mayfield does not like some of the dangerous
  behavior he has seen by the media, and it sends a
  bad message
• Addressing the most vulnerable populations
• CNN and TWC suggested that it is largely up to
  local media to reach the most vulnerable
  populations and find ways to motivate them to
  take action
• Most vulnerable populations include elderly,
  people with pets, special needs, and the poor,
  and men more than women
• Must educate people off season, but then most
  people are not necessarily interested to learn
  off season
• No clear ideas of how to reach the most
  vulnerable populations, the ones who either cant
  or refuse to take actions

17
Open Session (Cont.)

• Communicating uncertainty
• Still a problem communicating uncertainty
• Cone of uncertainty displays will transition to
  probability of tropical storm and hurricane force
  winds
• Dont know if it will be accepted
• Stricter building codes would reduce insurance
  costs
• Media wants more research into what information
  is most useful to users, but little money to do
  research
• Consistency of message
• Usually a good relationship between the media and
  the NWS but message to users not always
  consistent
• Media feels that they need to give those affected
  by disasters a voice, and let the viewers
  interpret

18
Severe Local Storms Symposium-Communication of
Warnings

• Need the next revolutionary step in radar
  technology to increase severe weather warning
  lead times
• Must consider demographics when communicating to
  users
• Private sector perceptions of user preferences
  can be unfounded
• Can affect policy discussions
• Can affect perceptions by decision-makers
• Unfounded claims on use of NOAA Weather radio and
  necessity of EAS for media notification

19
Severe Local Storms Symposium-Communication of
Warnings

• Inconsistency in message from government sector
• Tornado Warnings for hurricane eyewalls
  questioned
• Conflicts in NHC forecasts and local NWS Office
  forecasts
• Inconsistent calls to action in statements and
  warnings
• Local officials are not affected by false alarms
  since they prepare for worst case

20
Severe Local Storms Symposium-Communication of
Warnings (Cont.)

• Private sector warning services
• Specific warnings for businesses and other
  specialized users
• Liability for disagreeing with NWS warning is not
  an issue based on many years of success
• Psychology
• Must highlight severe weather threats as far in
  advance as possible
• Must get people to think about the possibility of
  hazardous weather days in advance
• Weather sources should advise of weather threats
  well downstream of active warnings
• Lower end users assume that it is someone elses
  job to protect them
• Media stories of no warning can shape public
  perception of warnings, especially if minority
  view
• Must put money and resources to study user needs

21
Severe Local Storms Symposium-Communication of
Warnings (Cont.)

• No clear solution on how to get warnings to
  people at night
• Sirens are an option
• Cell phone alarms
• Promotion of NOAA Weather Radio Alarms
• Should we as a meteorological community promote
  NOAA Weather Radio as an essential piece of
  equipment like a smoke alarm?
• Some companies are developing new communications
  tools
• GIS
• Satellite radio technology

22
Editorial

• Has project scope changed since November WASIS?
• Original intent
• Investigate/document progress/research in
  communicating weather information
• A focus on communicating/conveying uncertainty
• New focus
• Document current state of communication
• Suggest/recommend future efforts
• Problems and Frustrations
• Disappointed in lack of progress and creativity
• Based on perceived attitudes, few if any willing
  to put effort/resources into meaningful/creative
  research
• Satisfied with status quo, assuming other people
  are studying and addressing the problem
• Multi sector reluctance to share past/current
  research on user needs
• Fundamental mistrust across sectors continues and
  must be resolved

23
Editorial (Cont.)

• Project benefits from November WASIS
• Interaction with colleagues helped focus the
  topic
• Diverse backgrounds of colleagues provided
  important perspectives throughout the week
• Formal presentations on communications influenced
  direction of study

24
Current plan to complete project

• Document current state of communication
• Notes from AMS sessions
• Reference conclusions from first and second
  forums on future role of human
• Editorialize positive and negative aspects of
  current state of communication?
• Suggest methods of improving future communication
• More editorializing?
• Must be careful to reference as much as possible
• Publish in a Journal
• Thank you for your time and attention!
• Questions/Suggestions?