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The Energy Integration in Southern Africa

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The Energy Integration in Southern Africa Jean-Pierre Favennec IFP Professor Consultant Johannesburg December 2, 2010 * Summary Energy in the world Energy in ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Energy Integration in Southern Africa


1
The Energy Integration in Southern Africa
  • Jean-Pierre Favennec
  • IFP Professor Consultant
  • Johannesburg December 2, 2010

2
Summary
  • Energy in the world
  • Energy in Africa
  • Energy in Southern Africa

3
Energy in the World
  • Recent changes
  • Reduction of CO2 emissions
  • Limitations of oil production
  • New gas situation
  • Coal
  • Renewables

4
Dated Brent price (/b) January 1996 July
2010
/b
150
140
Weekly averages Annual averages
130
120
110
100
97.6
90
80
72.5
65.1
70
60
61.1
54.5
50
40
28.8
28.4
38.1
20.7
30
19.1
17.7
24.5
24.9
20
10
12.7
0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source Platts
S 40417 July 2010
5
(No Transcript)
6
CO2 emissions
Natural carbone sequestration
Captured carbon
Fuel switch
Wind, Solar, nuclear
Biofuels
Energy efficiency
Source Commission Européenne
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
Energy in Africa
10
World electricity generation 2006
  • World total 18 921 TWh

North America
1658
3531
CIS
5134
1786
Europe
682
2904
World electricity production by source (TWh) World electricity production by source (TWh)
Coal 7756
Natural Gas 3807
Nuclear 2792
Hydro 3035
Oil 1096
Renewable 435
Asia OECD
Middle East
588
China
959
Africa
1679
South and central America
Asia non OECD
Source AIE
EL 1011 April 2009
11
Energy consumption in Africa
Mtoe
Electricity (primary)
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
Source BP Statistical Review
AF004 October 2009
12
The energy divides
  • Divide between Africa and the rest of the world
    (15 of world population for 3 of world energy
    consumption)
  • Divide between North Africa-South Africa and the
    rest of Africa
  • Divide between urban and rural areas Urban areas
    look like energy spots

North and South Africa two specific areas
41
12
37
Region energy consumption proportion Energy
barriers
13
Hydroelectricity in Africa
Potential
14
Energy Integration in Southern Africa
  • Existing situation
  • Needs in electricity
  • The Integrated Resource Plan
  • What about renewables?
  • Integration benefits and existing pools

15
Southern Africas power Industry and
Interconnections
  • An existing electrical integration mostly between
    Mozambique and South Africa

H
H
H
W
T
T
T
T
T
T
Remarque 1 circle 3 power plants at least
except nuclear power plant for which 1 circle 1
power plant
N
T
Source African Energy
16
Southern African Power Pool
  • South Africa represents 81 of SAPP in 2010 and
    will remain at 77 of SAPP in 2025

17
The Integrated Resource Plan Context and
Description
  • Obligation after National Energy Act of 2008
  • Long term electricity capacity plan to develop a
    sustainable electricity investment strategy for
    generation capacity and transmission
    infrastructure for South Africa over the next 25
    years.
  • Demand-side management (DSM)
  • Pricing
  • Capacity provided by all generators (Eskom and
    independant power producers)
  • Environment

18
The Integrated Resource Plan Hypothesis
  • GDP growth on average 4,6 per year over the
    next 20 years
  • It requires from 30 439 MW to 52 724 MW of new
    capacity depending on scenarios for 454 357GWh
    produced in 2030.
  • It assumes at least 3420 MW of demand side
    management programmes

19
5 models studied to establish the balanced
revised scenario
  • A base case which minimise directs costs
  • 3 emissions limits based scenarios
  • EM 1.0 imposes an annual emission limit of 275
    MT
  • EM 2.0 imposes an emission limit of 275 MT of
    carbon dioxide by 2025 but allows emissions to go
    to higher levels prior to 2025
  • EM 3.0 imposes a tighter emission limit of
    220MT of carbon dioxide from 2020
  • A Carbon Tax based scenario (CT 0.0) imposes
    carbon taxes escalated to 2010 Rands an contained
    in the LTMS documents
  • 2 others model were studied a regional
    developement model and an enhanced DSM model

Sources DOE
20
The Integrated Resource Plan
3 scenarios Low Cost Scenario Balanced Scenario Low Carbon Scenario
Funding (BUS) 78 85 (10) 125 (60)
Carbon emissions (MT) 380 275 (-30) 220 (-40)
Generation mix by 2030
Capacity development (MW)
21
The Integrated Resource Plan Challenges
  • A huge amount of renewables capacity
  • Wind 4 500 MW in the Balanced scenario up to
    2019
  • Solar 400 MW
  • Wind Solar 7 200 MW between 2019 and 2030
  • Questions raised
  • Is it possible to build such capacities
    resources, technical problems
  • Problem of cost and economic rentability?
  • Ability for quick construction and maintenance?
  • Problem of grid stability?

22
The Integrated Resource Plan Challenges (2)
  • Decentralised electricity not adressed
  • Importance of transmission lines

23
Integration benefits
  • Benefits foster the development of the
    economy.
  • Keys actions
  • Develop infrastructures
  • Most important partners
  • Mozambique. There is already an important hydro
    production (Caora Bassa) and new capacities will
    be built. Mozambique is also supplying natural
    gas to RSA (Sasol)
  • Zambia (hydro potential)
  • Zimbabwe
  •  Limited cooperation
  • RDC. RSA is interested in electricity of Inga.
    But the Chinese presence (exchange of raw
    materials against investments) makes difficult
    this cooperation.
  • Angola
  • Key issue transmission

24
Euratom (1957)
  • Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community)
  • Success
  • Legal framework, safety standard uniformisation
  • Progressive enlargement of the cooperation
  • Broad development on innovative technology
  • Decrease in energy dependance
  • Efficient information centralisation about
    nuclear stocks and flows, and investment
  • Fight against nuclear proliferation
  • Lacks
  • Some legislative contents (about normalisation
    for example)
  • Decision process

25
ECSC (1951)
  • European Coal and Steel Community
  • Success
  • Long term vision and comon process
  • Peace, stability, prosperity, solidarity
  • Efficient response during crisis
  • Autonomous legal framework
  • Uniform social protection and labour law
  • Lacks
  • Emergence of great enterprises
  • Difficulty for struggling on price non-accordance
    and for assuring transparancy
  • No equalization in salary

26
Benefits of integration
  • In West Africa cost of kwh supposed to be reduced
    by 50 if good interconnections between the
    different countries of WAPP (West African Power
    Pool)

27
Thank you for your attention!
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