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Renewable Energy: Overview

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Title: Renewable Energy: Overview


1
Renewable Energy Overview
Wim C. Turkenburg Copernicus Institute for
Sustainable Development and Innovation Utrecht
University The Netherlands Unicamp, Campinas,
Brazil 19 February 2002
2
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
3
Renewable Energy WEA
  • Chapter 5
  • Energy Resources
  • (Hans-Holger Rogner)
  • Chapter 7
  • Renewable Energy Technologies
  • (Wim C. Turkenburg)
  • Lead authors chapter 7
  • - Jos Beurskens
  • - André Faaij
  • - Peter Fraenkel
  • - Ingvar Fridleifsson
  • - Erik Lysen
  • - Davis Mills
  • - Jose Roberto Moreira
  • - Lars Nilsson
  • - Anton Schaap
  • - Wim Sinke

4
Advantages Renewables
  • Improving access to energy sources
  • Diversifying energy carriers
  • Balancing the use of fossil fuels
  • Reducing dependence on imported fuels
  • Reducing pollution from conventional energy
    systems
  • Suited to small and large scale applications

5
Disadvantages Renewables
  • Technologies often capital intense
  • Energy costs often not (yet) competitive
  • Diffuse energy source spatial requirements
  • Environmental concerns (hydro, wind, biomass)
  • Intermittent character (wind, solar)

6
Present contribution Renewables
  • World primary energy consumption in 1998
  • _________________________________________________
    _____________________________________________
  • Fossil fuels 320 EJ (80)
  • - oil 142 EJ
  • - natural gas 85 EJ
  • - coal 93 EJ
  • _________________________________________________
    _____________________________________________
  • Renewables 56 EJ (14)
  • - large hydro 9 EJ
  • - traditional biomass 38 EJ
  • - new renewables 9 EJ
  • _________________________________________________
    _____________________________________________
  • Nuclear 26 EJ (6)
  • _________________________________________________
    _____________________________________________

7
Technical Potential Renewables
Supply in 1998 Technical potential

Biomass 45 10 EJ 200-500 EJ/y
Wind 0.07 EJ 70-180 EJ/y
Solar 0.06 EJ 1,500-50,000 EJ/y
Hydro 9.3 EJ 50 EJ/y
Geothermal 1.8 EJ 5,000 EJ/y
Marine - n.e.
8
Biomass energy conversion
  • Sources
  • plantations
  • forests residues
  • agricultural residues
  • municipal waste
  • animal manure
  • etcetera

9
Biomass energy conversion
  • Production of heat
  • improved stoves, advanced domestic heating
    systems, CHP.
  • Production of electricity
  • (co-)combustion, CHP, gasification (BIG-CC,
    engines), digestion (gas engines).
  • Production of fuels
  • ethanol, biogas, bio-oil, bio-crude, esters from
    oilseeds, methanol, hydrogen, hydrocarbons.
    Produced by extraction, fermentation, digestion,
    pyrolysis, hydrolysis, gasification and synthesis.

10
Status biomass energy
  • Cost biomass from plantation already favourable
    in some developing countries (1.5-2 /GJ).
  • Electricity production costs of 0.05-0.15 /kWh.
  • New technology (BIG-CC) needed to reduce
    electricity production costs to 0.04 /kWh.
  • Advanced technologies to produce bio-fuels
    (methanol, hydrogen, ethanol) at competitive
    cost (6-10 /GJ).

11
Biomass energy development strategies
  • More experience with, and improvement of, the
    production of energy crops.
  • Creating markets for biomass.
  • Development and demonstration of key conversion
    technologies.
  • Poly-generation of biomass products and energy
    carriers from biomass.
  • Policy measures like internalizing external costs
    and benefits.

12
Modern wind energy


13
Modern wind farms some key figures
  • On land wind farms capacity varying from 1 MW to
    100 MW (Spain even 1000 MW)
  • Typical ex-factory price US 350 to 400 per m²
    rotor swept area
  • Installed power varying from 400 W/m² (low wind
    speed area) to 550 W/m² (high wind speed area)
  • Present most applied turbines 0.6 MW to 1.5 MW
    (or approx. 43 m Ø to 60 m Ø).

14
Market development
15
Market developmentsome key figures
  • Total installed power 23,300 MW (end 2001,
    world).
  • 82 of power in only 5 countries (D, DK, E, USA,
    India)
  • Growth during last 5 years gt 30 /year.
  • Progress factor 80 .
  • Energy pay back time 0.25 - 0.5 years.
  • Technical life time 20 years.

16
Future development wind
  • Wind turbines become larger.
  • Wind turbines will have fewer components.
  • Special offshore designs.
  • 10 percent grid penetration maybe around 2020.
  • Installed capacity in 2030 could be 1,000 2,000
    GW.
  • Potential development energy production costs
    0.05 gt 0.03 /kWh ( 0.01 /kWh for storage).

17
Solar PV stand-alone systems
  • consumer products
  • telecom
  • leisure
  • water pumping
  • lighting signalling
  • rural electrification
  • etc.

Solar Home System (Bolivia)
PV-pumped cattle drinking trough (NL)
18
Grid-connected PV systems
  • building- infrastructure-integrated PV
  • roofs
  • facades
  • sound barriers
  • etc.
  • ground-based power plants

City of the Sun 50,000 m2 PV (NL)
PV sound barrier (NL)
PV gold (Japan)
19
PV market growthshipments per year (MW)
20
Status Solar PV
  • Conversion efficiencies of PV modules ranging
    from 6-9 (a-Si) to 13-15 (x-Si).
  • Many PV technologies under development.
  • Increase PV shipments (50 MW in 1991 150 MW in
    1998 280 MW in 2000).
  • Continuous reduction investment costs (learning
    rate 20).
  • gt 500.000 Solar Home Systems installed in last 10
    years.

21
Potential development Solar PV
  • Investment costs grid-connected PV-systems may
    come down from 5-10 /W gt 1 /W.
  • Energy payback time may come down from
    3-9 years gt 1-2 years (or less).
  • Electricity production costs may come down from
    0.3-2.5 /kWh gt 0.05-0.25 /kWh.
  • PV can play a major role in rural electrification.

22
Future of PV some conclusions
  • PV technically sufficiently mature for
    large-scale use.
  • large room for improvement in cost (x 1/5) and
    performance (x 2).
  • major contribution (EJ, CO2) from PV requires
    long-term approach, but
  • great commercial, economic, and development
    opportunities.

23
Solar Thermal Electricity
  • Production of high temperature heat, using
    concentrating systems, to generate electricity
  • Applicable in sunnier regions
  • All technologies rely on four basic elements
  • - collector / concentrator
  • - receiver
  • - transport / storage
  • - power conversion

24
Solar Thermal Electricity
  • Single Axis Tracking Through system
  • commercial available since 1980s
  • current energy costs 0.12-0.18 /kWh
  • potential energy costs 0.06 /kWh

25
Solar Thermal Electricity
  • Two Axis Tracking Solar Tower
  • started 1980s, several built
  • Illustration Solar One 10 MW plant (Barstow,
    California, 1982-1988)
  • Solar Two recently demonstrated molten salt heat
    storage, delivering power to the grid on a
    regular basis

26
Solar Thermal Electricity
  • Two Axis Tracking dish / heat engine power plant
  • several prototypes operated successfully in last
    10 years.
  • size prototypes 400 m2 10 kWe.
  • 2-3 MWe dish plant under development, attached
    to existing power plant.

27
STE some conclusions
  • Installed STE capacity about 400 MWe (1 TWh/y)
    may grow to 2000 MWe in 2010.
  • Solar fields can be integrated into fossil fuel
    power plants at relatively low cost.
  • STE conversion efficiency may increase from
    13-16 in near term to 16-20 in long term.
  • Electricity production costs may come down from
    0.12-0.18 /kWh today to 0.04-0.10 /kWh in long
    term.

28
Low Temperature Solar Energy
  • Worlds commercial low-temperature heat
    consumption 50 EJ/y for space heating and 10
    EJ/y for hot water production.
  • Low and medium temperature process heat
    consumption (up to 200 C) 40 EJ/y.
  • Demand can be met partially with solar energy.
  • Mismatch between demand and supply requires heat
    storage.

29
Low Temperature Solar Energy
  • Solar Domestic Hot Water system (SDHW)
  • Collector area per system 2-6 m2.
  • Energy cost 0.03-0.25 /kWh.
  • Solar fraction 50-100.
  • Collector area installed is about 30,000,000
    m2, equivalent to 18,000 MW, generating 50 PJ
    heat per year.

30
Low Temperature Solar Energy
  • Large water heating system
  • Around one-tenth of total installed area.
  • Wide spread use in swimming pools, hotels,
    hospitals,
  • Cost per kWh somewhat less than for SDHW systems

31
Low Temp. Solar Energy Technologies
  • Other options
  • Solar space heating (solar combi-systems).
  • District heating (central collector area).
  • Heat Pumps (tens of millions installed).
  • Solar cooling (poor economics today).
  • Solar cooking (over 450,000 box-cookers in
    India).
  • Solar crop drying (over 100,000 m2 installed).
  • Passive solar energy use (new building design).

32
Hydro-electricity
Salto Caxias hydro plant. More than 30 of total
investment budget allocated to 26
socio-environmental projects
33
Electricity from hydropower
PRIMARY SOURCES OF ENERGY FOR WORLD ELECTRICITY
GENERATION
  • Large-scale systems
  • 640 GW installed
  • 2,510 TWh/year
  • ______________________________________________Smal
    l-scale systems
  • 23 GW installed
  • 90 TWh/year
  • Figures 1997

Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Oil based
34
Hydropower some conclusions
  • Production may increase to 6000 TWh in 2050.
  • Technologies available to reduce social and
    ecological impacts.
  • Hydropower plants are capital intensive.
  • Large scale systems mature technology, unlikely
    to advance.
  • Electricity production costs 0.02-0.10 /kWh.
  • Additional advantages operating reserve,
    spinning reserve, voltage control, cold start
    capability.

35
Geothermal Energy
  • Used for bathing and washing for thousands of
    years.
  • Used commercially for some 70 years
  • High temperature fields in more than 80
    countries.
  • Low temperature resources found in most countries.

36
Geothermal electricity production
  • Some conclusions
  • 45 TWh produced in 1998
  • Electricity production cost 0.04 /kWh
  • Efficiency power plant 5-20
  • Accessible potential 12,000 TWh/year
  • Annual growth installed capacity 4
  • Installed capacity in 1998 8,240 MW
  • USA 2,850 MW
  • Philippines 1,848 MW
  • Italy 769 MW
  • Mexico 743 MW
  • Indonesia 590 MW
  • Japan 530 MW
  • New Zealand 345 MW
  • Iceland 140 MW

37
Direct use of geothermal heatsome conclusions
  • Utilization in 1998 40 TWh
  • Production cost 0.005-0.05 /kWh
  • Conversion efficiency 50-70
  • Accessible resource base 600.000 EJ
  • Annual growth installed capacity 6
  • New challenge geothermal heat pumps

38
Marine energy technologies
  • Tidal barrage energy
  • Wave energy
  • Tidal / marine currents
  • Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)
  • Other options

39
Potential contribution renewables
40
Potential contribution renewables
Shell scenario
41
Potential contribution renewables
  • Potential contribution in second half of the
    21th century
  • 20 - 50 of total energy consumption.
  • Transition to renewables-based energy systems
    relies on
  • - Successful development of renewable energy
    technologies that become increasingly
    competitive.
  • Removal of barriers to the deployment of
    renewables.
  • New policy instruments to speed-up the diffusion.
  • - Political will to internalise environmental
    (external) costs that permanently increase fossil
    fuel prices.

42
Policy options cost-buy-down and dissemination
  • Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
  • Concessions
  • Green electricity market
  • Carbon dioxide tax
  • Subsidies with sunset clauses
  • Retail financing
  • Clean Development Mechanism

43
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS
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