Volume forecasting from concept tests

1
Volume forecasting from concept tests

• Volume forecasting predicts take-up of new
  products/services
• Forecasts are based on likelihood of purchase and
  value for money responses to concepts/products,
  coupled with information concerning distribution
  and awareness
• The technique is centred around the classic
  trial/repeat model, with extra stages built in to
  allow comprehensive assessment of sensitivity to
  variation in key input parameters
• The trial/repeat model is implemented in the form
  of a 2-state Markov Chain
• The sensitivity analysis is conducted via a Monte
  Carlo simulation, coupled with resampling to
  enable accurate determination of statistical
  confidence intervals for the forecasts

2
Volume forecasting from concept tests (cont.)

• Output example, showing minimum, maximum and most
  likely range estimates

80 confidenceinterval
Note Volumes for different options cannot be
added to yield a total volume of sales