Decision Systems Sciences: Aims and Principle

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Decision Systems SciencesAims and Principle
Incoming Address ISSS 2006 Sonoma, CA July 14,
2006 Kyoichi Jim Kijima Tokyo Institute of
Technology
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Structure of Presentation

• Systems Research in Japan
• Decision Systems Sciences
• Integrated Approach to Decision Making
• First formal, then verbal Research Principle
• A Research Output
• Soft Systems Modeling
• Relevance to Agent-based Systems Sciences
• Introduction to the ISSS2007 in Tokyo

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Systems Research in Japan
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Current Systems Studies in Japan

• As a whole, they have been strong at hard
  approach
• Mathematical General Systems Theory
• My own background
• Social/Organization Systems Theory
• Control/Systems Engineering
• Simulations and modeling
• Soft computing (GA, Neural Network, Simulated
  Annealing, etc.)
• Systems Practice
• Operations Management
• TQC, Kaizen

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Integration Japans Competence in Science and
Engineering

• Integration/harmonyCompetence of Japanese
  Culture
• Utilization of Emergence of Systemic Properties
• Toyota
• Mechanics Electronics lt Mechatronics
• Sony
• PC AV Game lt PC entertainment

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Using Japans Competence for promoting Systems
Research

• Systems Science with emphasis on
  integration/fusion
• Social Science Engineering
• Design of safe and secure society A big national
  project of Japan in the next five years
• Hard Soft, Theoretical Practical
• Purposive and purposeful agents Gaming
  simulation
• Formal (mathematical)-, Verbal-
  Simulation-based integrated and comprehensive
  approach

A Typical Research Area
Decision Systems Sciences Research Program
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Decision Systems Sciences
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Decision Systems Sciences

• Integrated study of Decision making
• Tackle complexity or messes involved in decision
  process in organizations, communities and
  societies and their environments, in a holistic
  and integrated way

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Decision Systems Sciences

• Draws on all of systems sciences
• Systems thinking To promote holism as its
  primary intellectual strategy for handling
  complexity in decision situation.
• Systems modeling To describe and analyze
  relevant aspects of the situation by constructing
  a variety of models, from mathematical to
  conceptual.
• Systems practice To translate theoretical
  notions into the practical domain. (Practical
  applications of systems thinking/ideas)

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First formal, then verbal principle

• Research Principle of Decision Systems Sciences
• First, describe the problematic situation as
  formally as possible.
• Then, apply verbal approach to areas beyond the
  scope where such formal treatments do work.
• The formal approach implies mathematical
  modeling, while the verbal approach includes soft
  systems thinking.

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First formal, then verbal principle

• We admit hard approach has strict limitation on
  capability for dealing with complexity, but
  should use it as much as possible.

Limited boundary of rigorous formulation
Complexity
Formalism
Two break through
Formalism taking soft aspects
Scenario simulation
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First formal, then verbal principle
Complex phenomena
Scenario simulation
Formal Approach
Soft aspects
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A Typical Research Output

• Soft Systems Modeling

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Soft Systems Modeling

• Models emergent properties from interaction among
  autonomous decision makers, by developing
  innovative models describing interactions among
  them.
• Adopts formalism by taking soft aspects for
  obtaining deep, insightful and
  non-intuitive findings
• Irrationality, subjectivity, emotion, belief,
  doubt, misunderstanding, misperception,
  credibility, etc.
• Dramatic Model of Negotiation An example

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Dramatic Model of Negotiation Example

• Negotiation as the pre-play stage (lobbying,
  root-cutting) before the final decision is made
• Negotiation Reciprocal Declarations of Positions
  and Threats
• Theorem
• Two types of dilemma are resolved if and only if
  the negotiation has settled down.

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Dramatic Model of Negotiation

• i declares I will do A so that you should do X.
  Otherwise, I will do B.
• (A, X) is position
• B is threat
• j declares I will do Y so that you should do C.
  Otherwise, I will do Z.
• (C, Y) js position
• Z js threat

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US((W, R), M), Iraq((W,A), C)
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Two types of dilemma of position

• (A, X) faces Dilemma of Cooperation iff
• There is a strategy A available for i such that
  (A, X) is more preferable to (A, X) for i.
• j cannot believe that i will really carry out his
  declared position A in a cooperative way.

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If USs position (W, R) faces dilemma of
cooperation
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Two types of dilemma of position

• (A, X) faces Dilemma of Trust
• There is a strategy X available for j such that
• (A, X) is more preferable to (A, X) for j.
• i cannot trust that js acceptance of is
  position.

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USs position (W, R) faces dilemma of trust
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Negotiation Process

• t 0 ((A,X), B), ((C, Y), Z)
• t 1 ((A,X), B), ((C, Y), Z)
• t 2 ((A,X), B), ((C, Y), Z)
• Reciprocal declaration of positions and threats

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Consensus Making

• We call i achieves consensus at time t
• if the position at that time, say, (A, X) is
  Nash equilibrium
• Because of the properties of Nash equilibrium,
  the definition is very natural.

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Main Theorem of Dramatic Model of Negotiation

• i achieves a consensus at time t if and only if
  at that time the position does not face either of
  dilemmas.

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Confrontation Analysis

• A more practical algorithm for structuring
  confrontation as networks on a map
• Stakeholders
• Interrelationships among them
• Assumptions behind stakeholders claims
• Practices
• Conflicts over a river pollution in Indonesia
• Conflicts between tribes in African countries

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Negotiation in Japanese Style

• WA (harmony) is most appreciated.
• Not position nor threat, but humble proposal
  like
• Could you please do X, though it is not the best
  for you, then I will do A, which is not the best
  for me?
• Which style will lead to an agreement more
  smoothly, threat or WA?
• We need further investigation.

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Relevance to Agent-based Social Systems Sciences

• Umbrella Research Program of
• Decision Systems Sciences

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What is Agent-based Social Systems
Sciences(ABSSS) ?

• A New Frontier in Systems Research in Japan
• An umbrella research program under which Decision
  Systems Sciences is positioned as a main stream.
• Authorized research area at Tokyo Tech as a COE
  (center of excellence) program by the Government.

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What is the COE program?

• Research/educational program at national level
  implemented by the Government
• to improve international competitiveness of
  Japanese universities.
• to develop research centers capable of producing
  top-level researchers of the future.
• Supported by reasonably big budget for five years
  
• The ISSS 2007 will be supported by this program

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Introduction to the ISSS 2007in Tokyo
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Introduction to ISSS 2007 in Tokyo

• The 51th annual conference will be held at Tokyo
  Institute of Technology, Tokyo from 5 August to
  10 August, 2007.
• Taking advantage of the fact that Tokyo is a
  cross-point of western and eastern culture, and
  tradition and modernism.
• We would like to promote in the ISSS
• integration between cultures,
• harmony between theorists and practitioners, and
• fusion among generations

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Conference Theme of ISSS 2007 in Tokyo

• Integrated Systems Sciences Systems Thinking,
  Modeling and Practice
• A wide variety of researches are welcomed.
• Not only those emphasizing methodological
  aspects.
• But also those investigating real social/natural
  phenomena by using systems idea.
• A wide range of distinguished speakers are
  invited.
• From industry, academia, government and NPO/NGO
• Unique presentations
• Polytheistic Cosmology of Japanese Religion
  (Buddhism priest)
• Success factors of Japanese Manufacturing
  Industry (Tentative)

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Tokyo Now

• We are now economically reviving after the lost
  decade so that you are certainly able to enjoy
  your stay in Tokyo.
• Many attractive spots can be reached by less than
  thirty-minute ride on train.