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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS

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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M) – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS


1
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS
  • 2012 Single Family Starts 535,000
  • Up 24 from 2011
  • This represents 44 of what would be considered
    normal (1.2170M)
  • Forecast 2013 650,000 SF 22
  • Forecast 2014 845,000 SF 30

2
CORE LOGIC
  • IN 2012
  • Total Homes Sales Increased 6
  • Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11
  • REO Sales Declined 20
  • (3rd consecutive decline)
  • Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4 6.9
  • Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat
    sales) Increased 6.3 (largest since 2006)

3
GLAR MLS 2012
  • Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive
    Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011)
  • Houses Sold on MLS
  • 06 07 08 09
    10 11 12 12 vs.11
  • 15,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442
    10,974 12,724 15.9
  • Median Sales Price
  • 06 07 08 09
    10 11 12 12 vs.11
  • 138.5 139.0 134.9 132.0 138.0
    134.1 140.0 4.3
  • Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in
  • 12 vs. 11

4
  • PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSA
  • National
  • MSA Rank 1-yr Qtr. 5-yr
  • Birmingham, AL 222 -1.3 -0.2
    -8.8
  • Charlotte, NC 201 -0.8
    0.4 -12.9
  • Cincinnati, OH 213 -1.0 -0.5
    -8.3
  • Cleveland, OH 265 -2.2 -
    -13.3
  • Columbus, OH 186 -0.3 -0.3
    -6.9
  • Dayton, OH 212 -1.0 0.1
    -9.9
  • Houston, TX 30 3.4 0.9
    5.5
  • Indianapolis, IN 149 0.3 0.2
    -3.9
  • Knoxville, TN 156 0.1 0.6
    -5.5
  • Memphis, TN 206 -1.0
    -0.1 -12.1
  • Louisville, KY 133 0.6 0.4
    -2.8
  • Oklahoma City 64 2.0
    0.7 2.2

5
TOP 20 MSA LARGEST 5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME
PRICES
  • Las Vegas, NV -54.3
  • Vallejo, CA -45.6
  • Stockton, CA -44.9
  • Daytona Beach, FL -44.3
  • Reno, NV -44.0
  • Orlando, FL -42.8
  • Ocala, FL -42.7
  • Salvias, CA -41.7
  • Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -41.6
  • Riverside San Bernadine, CA -41.3
  • Port St. Lucie, FL -40.9
  • Yuba City, CA -40.7
  • Naples Marco Island, FL -40.1
  • Visalia, CA -39.8
  • Ft. Lauderdale, FL -39.0
  • Palm Bay Melbourne, FL -38.8
  • Fresno, CA -38.5
  • Phoenix, AZ -38.4
  • Bradenton Sarasota, FL -38.0

6
Residential Building Permits 2012
  • 2012 2011 12 vs 11
  • Jefferson 1003 671 49.4
  • Oldham 156 112 39.3
  • Shelby 136 73 86.3
  • Spencer 47 46 2.2
  • Bullitt 292 213 37.1
  • 1634 1115 46.5
  • Clark 349 227 53.7
  • Floyd 169 98 72.4
  • Harrison 96 64 50.0
  • 614 389 57.8
  • 8-County
  • Total 2,248
    1504 49.5
  • Note Nelson 114 122 -6.6
  • Hardin 254 210 21

7
Residential Building Permit 2012 Market Comparison
  • CHANGE
  • MARKET 2012 vs. 2011
  • Louisville KY 42.5
  • Lexington KY 33.1
  • Evansville IN 24.3
  • Asheville NC 21.5
  • Charlotte NC 30.4
  • Fayetteville NC -------
  • Hickory NC 12.3
  • Triad NC 3.2
  • Raleigh NC 31.8
  • Upstate NC 32.1
  • Chattanooga TN 27.7
  • Knoxville TN 23.9
  • Tri-Cities TN -4.5
  • Source The Market Edge

8
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9
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10
Improving Markets Index
259
242
201
125
101
100
99
98
99
103
84
80
80
76
41
30
23
12
11
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12
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13
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14
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15
5294
5137

5015
4790
4348
4225
Permits
3749
3297
16
5294
5137

5015
4790
4348
4225
Permits
3749
3297
17
97.5
59.6
52.6
49.5
48.8
38.6
34.2
29.9
13.2
-1.2
-2.4
-11.7
-18
-22.5
-27.7
J 11 F M A M J J A S O N D J 12 F M A M J J A S O N D J 13 F
Source local government permitting departments
18
NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTS WHAT HOME BUYERS
REALLY WANT
  • The lot size is not a factor for 25 of buyers
  • 47 want three bedrooms
  • 32 want four bedrooms
  • 57 of home buyers prefer a single-story home
  • 31 prefer two stories
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

19
60 of buyers want a full or partial
basement 48 want the Master Bedroom on the 2nd
floor 70 prefer the Washer Dryer on the 1st
floor Buyers focus on Quality Appearance
where looking at home components such as
flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets,
etc. while When looking at appliances, the
focus is on Quality Brand
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders

NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
20
  • In the Kitchen
  • A walk-in pantry, table space for eating and a
    double sink are considered essential/desirable
    by 84 of buyers
  • In the Bathroom
  • An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a shower
    stall and tub in Master bath are
    essential/desirable to 80 of buyers
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

21
  • When Rating Windows
  • 67 want energy star rated windows, triple
    pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass
  • Decorative Features
  • 88 Want ceiling fans
  • 60 Want built-in shelving and ceiling crown
    molding
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

22
  • Laundry Room
  • 57 Buyers find it essential and would not buy a
    home without it
  • 36 Find it desirable
  • Garage Storage
  • 32 Rate it essential
  • 54 Desirable
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

23
  • The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features
  • 90 Exterior lighting essential/desirable
  • 83 Patio
  • 80 Front porch
  • Master Bath Location
  • 45 Essential
  • 36 Desirable
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

24
  • 62 Would choose a smaller home with higher
    quality products and amenities than a larger home
    with fewer amenities
  • 73 Agree that the projected utility costs of a
    home would influence their decision today
  • 71 Would prefer to buy a home from a builder
    that provides home energy ratings
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

25
  • Location of choice for new home buyers
  • Central City 8
  • Close-in Suburbs 30
  • Outlying Suburb 38
  • Rural Area 27
  • and small towns
  • Community features to seriously influence the
    buying decision
  • Walking/Jogging Trails 60
  • Park Area - 54
  • Outdoor Swimming Pool 50
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

26
  • 70 of home buyers see value in professional
    designations for building/remodeling contractors
  • More Professional Credible
  • Provide better quality work and craftmanship
  • Provide better service levels
  • More Reliable
  • Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor
  • 1. Reputation for quality construction
  • 2. Reputation for completing projects on
    budget
  • Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
    Association of Home Builders
  • NAHB Economics Housing Policy Group

27
Type of Home Preferred (Percent of Respondents)
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
28
Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers (Percent of
Respondents)
36
58
57
36
28
63
53
37
41
49
51
39
35
54
40
48
32
54
36
49
54
31
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
29
Outdoor Features Rated Essential or
Desirable (Percent of Respondents)
41
49
56
27
26
54
29
49
22
55
21
51
45
17
39
21
31
6
27
6
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
30
Accessibility Features Rated Essential or
Desirable (Percent of Respondents)
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
31
Accessibility Features - History (Percent of
Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012
and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007
)
2004 2007 2012
A full bath on the main level 75 74 81
Non-slip floor surfaces 62 53 63
An entrance without steps 42 38 50
Bathroom aids, such as grab bars or seating in shower 40 35 46
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
32
Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a
Living Room by Division (Percent of Respondents )
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
33
Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers
to Choose a Community (Percent of Respondents )
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
34
Community Features that Influence Purchase
Decision - History (Percent of Respondents )
2004 2007 2012
Walking/jogging trails 51 49 60
Park area 52 43 54
Outdoor swimming pool 36 36 50
Lake 32 33 45
Exercise room 30 27 39
Convenience Store n/a 28 32
Drug Store n/a 28 32
Playgrounds 26 22 31
Public transportation 34 24 29
Clubhouse 21 21 26
Security guard at gate 30 17 25
Card-operated gate, no guard 16 14 19
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
35
Community Features that Influence Purchase
Decision History Cont. (Percent of Respondents )
2004 2007 2012
Tennis courts 10 10 17
Arts and Crafts n/a 7 14
Basketball courts 9 8 13
Business center 17 8 13
Billiard room 9 6 12
Daycare center 9 8 9
Baseball/ softball field 8 6 9
Soccer field 5 4 6
Racquetball courts 4 3 6
Equestrian facilities n/a 3 5
Other 11 13 6
Source What Home Buyers Really Want, National
Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics
Housing Policy Group
36
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2011 COMMUNITY
PREFERENCE SURVEY
37
  • 61 Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than
    37 who choose to live on smaller lots within
    walking distance to schools, stores and
    restaurants
  • 78 Americans consider being within 30-minutes
    of work important in choosing where to live.
  • 88 Say the neighborhood where the house is
    located is a bigger consideration where to live
    than the size of the house.
  • Important Choice Decisions
  • 77 Sidewalks and places to take a walk
  • 75 High quality public schools
  • Source National Realtors Association 2011
    Community Survey

38
Importance of Community Characteristics
Source National Realtors Association 2011
Community Survey
39
Preferred Versus Actual Community Type
8
5
11
19
28
26
12
19
18
14
22
16
Source National Realtors Association 2011
Community Survey
40
Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type
Source National Realtors Association 2011
Community Survey
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