Yesterday

1
Yesterdays Tomorrows The Challenge of
Predicting Technology Futures

• Richard Wiggins
• Senior Information Technologist
• Michigan State University

2
Words of Wisdom

• Power corrupts
• and
• PowerPoint corrupts absolutely
• -- Vint Cerf, inventor of the Internet Protocol

3
Agenda

• Past Futures
• The Challenges in Understanding Tech Futures
• The Detroit Free Press Predicts the 21st Century
  in 1992

4
The Problems with Prediction
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Prediction Is Hard!

• Hard to predict
• The flow of history
• The outcome of a war
• The weather
• How technology will
• Evolve
• Impact society
• Churchill its easier to predict what has
  already occurred.

6
Even Insiders Have Trouble Predicting

• Prime ministers and presidents
• CEOs
• Investors
• Historians (!)
• Visionaries
• Expert Authors
• Even the inventors of technology have relatively
  poor record understanding its ultimate uses

7
Past Predictions

• "Rail travel at high speed is not possible
  because passengers, unable to breathe, would die
  of asphyxia."

-- Dr. Dionysus Lardner (1793-1859), Professor
of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy at
University College, London
8
Past Predictions

• "All attempts at artificial aviation are not only
  dangerous to human life, but foredoomed to
  failure from the engineering standpoint."

-- Engineering Editor, The Times, 1906
9
Past Predictions

• "That the automobile has practically reached the
  limit of its development is suggested by the fact
  that during the past year no improvements of a
  radical nature have been introduced. "

-- Scientific American, Jan 2, 1909
10
Past Predictions Inventors Thoughts

• Alexander Graham Bell believed the masses would
  use the telephone to listen to concerts.
• Marconi initially believed that wireless was for
  person-to-person communication.
• Essentially wireless telegraphy
• Edison believed the wax cylinder would be used to
  record business meetings for more accurate
  note-taking.

11
Past Predictions

• "I think there is a world market for maybe five
  computers."

-- Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM, 1949
"There is no reason for any individual to have a
computer in his home."
-- Ken Olson, President, Digital Equipment
Corporation, 1977
12
Past Predictions

• "The electric light is very probably a great
  invention, and...let us take it for granted that
  its future development will be vast. But this,
  unhappily, cannot be urged as a reason why the
  pioneer companies should be prosperous."

-- The Economist, 1882
13
Past Predictions

• "I do not believe television will come to stay
  until the picture shown is sufficiently larger,
  cleaner and more detailed to permit a family of
  five to see what is going on, without exerting
  any great amount of effort on their part."

-- L. Waters Milbourne, WCAO Baltimore, US, 1944
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Past Predictions

• "Its going to take several years to sign up large
  numbers of Internet customers"

-- Glenn Britt, President, Time Warner Cable
Ventures, 1996
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Past Predictions

• "The consumer doesnt care if optic fibre, copper
  or a highly trained duck brings them broadband"

-- BT Spokesman, May 1997
16
In 1993, Who Would Have Predicted ?

• Pop-up ads?
• Napster?
• The Internet bubble?
• DMCA, the Patriot Act?

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Who Would Have Predicted?

• This device?

18
Who Would Have Predicted?

• This dude as a movie mogul?
• (Do you even know who this guy is?)

19
Who Would Have Predicted?

• These folks become the greatest philanthropists
  on Earth?

20
The Challenges in Understanding Technology
Futures
21
The Technology Hype Cycle
Height of Media Frenzy
Deployment and Reality
Product Announce- ment
Trough of Dashed Expectations
Courtesy of, and paraphrasing, Gartner Group
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The Technology Hype Cycle
Portals
Push
Wireless
Broadband
Java
E-Commerce
IntelligentAgents
M-Commerce
Bluetooth
The Next New Thing
IP Telephony
NetworkComputers
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London Sunday Times, November 19, 1995

• Bill Joy Javatization could end Microsoft
  (!!!)
• Java could spell an end to Intels rule as king
  of the chip world.
• 2007 any thoughts as to what could end
  Microsoft?

24
Example Portals

• Yahoo set the stage
• Spectacular failures!
• Disneys Go.com
• Always a portal without a purpose!
• Blend ABC News brand image with Mickey Mouse?
• We knew people wanted to find the good stuff
• And we assumed portals was how they would
• They used to say content is king
• Today it seems search is king

25
The Complicity of the Press

• Always looking for the next new thing
• John Markoff writes about it in the NY Times (et
  al)
• Dozens of other reporters start covering the
  story
• They love the story if
• It will destroy Microsoft
• This changes everything

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Complicity of the Press

• Wired Magazine, November 2001
• Microsofts Secret Weapon
• Manufacturing Is History (?!?!?!)
• What the article really says
• Microsoft is outsourcing Xbox production to an
  efficient supplier with factories in 3rd world
  nations
• Press always wants to make a grand, sweeping
  pronouncement

27
The Business Plan as a Form of Prediction

• The dot-com bubble took ideas
• That should have been test marketed
• And evaluated in focus groups
• and spent billions of dollars testing
  nationally/globally
• Greenspan was right irrational exuberance!

28
Failure to Examine the Microscopic

• Understand utility of a new technology in minute
  detail
• Exactly what benefit accrues to the user?
• How complicated is it?
• How much work to buy into technology?
• How many keystrokes to paydirt?
• How is it superior to familiar alternatives?

29
Trying to Understand the Wrong Issues

• In 1993, we faced technology questions
• Should Mosaic cache inline images?
• As the revolution unfolded, technology took a
  back seat
• Mores, customs, social values
• Laws and politics
• Competition and monopoly
• and global differences in these areas
• You cannot apply technological analysis to
  understand these issues
• or to predict outcomes

30
Sleeper Predictions

• Often predictions are ahead of their time
• Predictions about home computing
• New York Times, 1984
• Investors shun in-home stock trading
• John F Settel, vice president at
  Prudential-Bache Its just as easy to make one
  phone call to a broker
• Right idea, wrong time
• Then dial-up to proprietary network on 500
  Hayes modem
• Today Fire up your Web browser and go
• Many 1984 predictions on home computers are
  todays realities

31
1992 The Detroit Free Press Predicts the 21st
Century

• Can you guess which year they predicted which
  tech future?

32
Free Press 21st Century

• 911 Operators know your blood type, your medical
  history, your age, and how many locks are on your
  door."

-- By 2002
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Free Press 21st Century

• Television hangs on the wall. Its 4 feet
  across, renders perfect color and detail in 3D.
  It responds to voice commands.

-- By 2017
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Free Press 21st Century

• Airplanes with double-deck seating carry 600-700
  people over oceans. Aircraft will be faster and
  use more polar routes to reach Tokyo from Detroit
  in two hours."

-- By 2020
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Free Press 21st Century

• Video phones are inexpensive. and widely used

-- By 2002
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Free Press 21st Century

• Advertising is practically dead. Consumers
  subscribe to product information services,
  independent, unbiased third parties that rate and
  test goods and services.

-- By 2017
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Free Press 21st Century

• Personal computers look almost like clipboards
  and are carried like schoolbooks.

-- By 2002
38
Free Press 21st Century

• 1992 view of 21st century does not mention the
  word
• Internet!

39
Our View of the Future

• What words
• What concepts
• What futures
• Are we missing?