Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Jay J. Pardee June 2002 Phoenix, AZ.

1
Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Jay J.
PardeeJune 2002Phoenix, AZ.
FAA
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
2
Agenda
FAA

• Brief update on CAST progress
• Introduction to JIMDAT prioritization activity
• Challenges to implementation.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
3
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Industry
Government
AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA NACA Boeing PW RAA FSF I
ATA AAPA ATAC

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• System Safety
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research
• NASA
• ICAO
• JAA
• TCC
• NATCA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Representing GE and RR
4
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST

• Data analyses

Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

• Safety enhancement development

Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT)

• Master safety plan
• Enhancement effectiveness
• Future areas of study

Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis
Team (JIMDAT)
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
5
FAA
What is CAST About?

• Goal
• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
  accident rate by 80 by 2007.
• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA,
  FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations
  and appropriate regulatory/ government
  authorities to reduce worldwide commercial
  aviation fatal accident rate.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
6
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight
GENERAL AVIATION
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Aeronautical

Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Passenger Interference
Loss of Control
Uncontained

Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Carry-on Baggage
Into Terrain
Approach and Landing

Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Turbulence
Runway Incursions
HUMAN FACTORS
IMPROVED DATA
IN OPERATIONS

ANALYSIS
MAINTENANCE
7
FAA

• CFIT ALAR
• JSAT JSIT activity completed
• Enhancements (primarily operational) implemented
  or implementation underway
• UEF Hi energy rotating part inspections
  implemented
• LOC, Runway Incursion, Turbulence
• JSATs completed
• JSITs nearing completion
• Enhancements defined and proposed to CAST
• Many proposed enhancements may involve
  significant aircraft/equipment upgrades
• 84 possible safety enhancements identified
• 25 completed or in implementation phase

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
8
Completed Safety Enhancements

• 1. CFIT TAWS
• 2. CFIT SOPs
• 3. CFIT PAI-Vertical angles.
• 4. CFIT MSAW
• 5. CFIT Proactive Safety Programs
• (FOQA ASAP)
• 6. CFIT CRM Training
• 7. CFIT Prevention training.
• 8. CFIT ATC CFIT training.

9
Completed Safety Enhancements (contd)

• 9. ALAR (Safety Culture)-CEO and DOS more
  visible
• 10. ALAR (Safety Culture)-Safety info in
  manuals.
• 11. ALAR (Safety Culture)-AFM database for
  inspectors.
• 12. ALAR Maintenance Procedures-Servicing
  landing struts.
• 13. ALAR Maintenance Procedures-Subcontractor
  maintenance guidance.
• 14. ALAR Maintenance Procedures-Policy on MEL
  (Covers Reocurring maintenance events).
• 15. ALAR Maintenance Procedures-DOS internal
  survey.
• 16. UEF (Uncontained Engine Failures).

10
Sharpening Our Focus
FAA

• Predict 38 risk reduction for 25 safety
  enhancements completed or in implementation
  phase.
• All 84 safety enhancements are valuable
• Some safety enhancements are more effective than
  others across the various accident categories
• Implementation reality demands better
  prioritization

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
11
Developed a Prioritization Methodology (JIMDAT)
FAA

• Identified the most effective solutions derived
  from all accident categories.
• Considered effectiveness vs. resources
• Tested solutions against all fatal and hull loss
  accidents, U. S. domestic Part 121 Operations,
  1987-2001.
• Created draft Master strategic Safety plan.
• Identified areas for future study/mitigation.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
12
JIMDAT Process
FAA

• Provides consistent estimates of the accident
  prevention potential of safety enhancements
• Accounts for the benefit of a single intervention
  or a combined group of interventions
• Addresses overlap with other interventions/technol
  ogies
• Preserves analysis criteria and results

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
13
Using JIMDAT for CAST Plan Development
FAA

• Risk reduction is primary measure
• Identified effectiveness and associated resource
  requirements for each enhancement
• Scatter chart(s) used for initial differentiation
  (2007 and 2020)

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
14
Output Evaluation Spreadsheet Example
15
Example Scatter Chart
FAA
2007 Implementation Resources
25
20
Dollars In Millions
15
10
Combined Score
5
Combined SOPs
0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Score
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
16
Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
80
10000
Proposed PLAN
9000
70
Risk Reduction
Total Cost in (Millions)
8000
60
7000
50
6000
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
40
5000
Resource Cost ( Millions)
2007
2020
4000
30
3000
20
2000
10
1000
0
0
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020
Implementation Level)
Completed and Committed
Completed
Completed Plan (2020 Implementation Level)
Completed Plan (2007 Implementation Level)
17
FAA
PLAN
Portion of Total Risk From Hull Loss/ Fatal
/Security Accidents Mitigated
(2020 Implementation Values)
100
90
Risk Eliminated
80
Remaining Risk
70
60
Portion of Risk
50
40
30
20
10
0
CFIT
Total
LOC FLT
Security
LOC GND
Evacuation
Turbulence
Fire/Explosion
Midair Collision
Runway Collision
crew Incapacitation
Uncontained Engine Burst
Castestrophic Sys/Comp Failure
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
18
Completed Draft Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
FAA

• Contains 30 safety solutions optimized to include
  those actions with the best effectiveness vs.
  resource relationships.
• Potential accident risk reduction of 65 (2007)
• Combines short-term liveware based solutions
  initially with transition to design change
  solutions long-term.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
19
Draft Plan Elements
FAA
31. LOC Training - Advanced Maneuvers
-Implement ground and flight training
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training
28. LOC Policies and Procedures -
Policies - Process to inform
personnel/flight crew
27. LOC Policies and Procedures - Risk
Assessments and Management
29. LOC Policies and Procedures -
Policies -Flight crew proficiency program
24. ALAR Aircraft Design- Continuing
Airworthiness
44. RI Visual Aids Enhancement and
Automation Technology- Airports -Runway
occupancy signal
25. ALAR Aircraft Design- Critical System
Maintenance
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
20
Draft Plan Elements
FAA
8. CFIT PAI-XLS (ILS, MLS, GLS)
7. CFIT PAI-RNAV RNP Instrument
approach procedures
53. RI Situational Awareness Technology
for ATC - Enhanced airport
surveillance equipment
60. RI Pilot Training - Situational
awareness, SOPs, CRM
46. RI Air Traffic Control Training
-Enhanced tower controller training
30. LOC Training - Human Factors and
Automation
55. RI ATC Procedures SOPs for controller
situational awareness
49. RI SOPs for ground operations
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
21
Draft Plan Elements
FAA
47. RI -Tower Controller CRM Training
(ATTE)
59. RI ATC Procedures - Readback
requirement
6. CFIT PAI-RNAV 3-D instrument approach
4. CFIT PAI-VGSI at runway ends
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades
- New Type Designs
26. LOC Policies and Procedures -SOP
50. RI SOPs for ground operations for GA
32. LOC Autoflight Design - New designs
85. Vertical Situation Display
34. LOC Displays and Alerting Systems
-New designs
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
22
Draft Plan Elements
FAA
39. LOC Basic Airplane Design -Icing
40. LOC Envelope Protection - New
Airplanes
51. RI SOPs for tow tug operators
52. RI SOPs for vehicle operators
19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
23
Using JIMDAT Process for New Initiative Evaluation
FAA

• Issue presented
• Suggestion from outside industry.
• Regulatory initiatives.
• Accident lessons learned.
• Incident data.
• Other.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
24
International Activities
FAA

• ICAO
• GASP (Global Aviation Safety Plan)
• Europe
• JSSI Joint Safety Strategy Initiative
• Central and south America
• PAAST Pan American Aviation Safety Team

• East Africa
• African Airlines Safety Council, AFRASCO
• West Africa
• Flight Safety Foundation
• Asia/Pacific
• Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
25
Challenges to Implementation

• Communication (Internally Externally).
• Challenging economic times.
• Limited resources.

26
Strategies to overcome obstacles

• Focused communication to share results.
• Various worldwide forums
• Provide business case models to accompany safety
  enhancement packages.
• Combine synergistically with other safety
  initiatives
• Explore other methods to reduce barriers to
  implementing safety enhancements

27
Our Challenge Stay Focused
FAA

• Work together internationally.
• Coordinate strategy.
• Target our resources.
• Focus on prevention.
• Communicate industry and government safety
  processes and initiatives.
• Share results.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference
28
Next steps
FAA

• Weather related studies to begin in 2002.
• Continue refinement of JIMDAT Methodology.
• Continue refinement of a strategic safety plan
  that
• maximizes safety considering available resources
• recognizes other activities that draw upon our
  limited safety resources
• is coordinated with operational efficiency
  improvement activities
• Supporting Business models
• Continue development of risk based proactive
  enhancement identification.
• Continue to improve our collaboration with other
  international safety programs.

19th Annual FAA/JAA International Conference