Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

1
Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 6
• Sociology SOCI 20182

2
New Information about the Schedule of Censuses in
CIS

• 2009 Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus,
  Azerbaijan
• 2010 Russia, Tajikistan
• 2011 Armenia, Ukraine
• 2012 Turkmenistan
• ? - Uzbekistan, Moldova

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Fertility measures

1. Crude Birth Rate, CBR
2. General Fertility Rate, GFR
3. Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR  or
   Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR
4. Marital Fertility Rate, MFR
5. Total Fertility Rate,  TFR (period and cohort)
6. Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR
7. Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
8. Parity Progression Ratios, PPR

4
Crude Birth Rate, CBR

• Number of births in the studied year divided by
  average size of the population during the year,
  per 1,000 persons
• Easy to calculate but depends not only on
  individual-level childbearing behavior, but also
  on age and sex distribution of population.

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Total Fertility Rate,  TFR

• Period total fertility rate, PTFR
• The average number of children a women would bear
  in her life if she experiences the age-specific
  fertility rates prevailing at the study period.
• Total Fertility Rate, TFR, for a given year is
  calculated by summing the age-specific fertility
  rates for that year over the range of
  reproductive ages.

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Net Reproduction Rate, NRR (period)

• The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would
  bear in her life if she experiences the
  age-specific fertility rates (for daughters)
  prevailing at the study period, AND if her
  daughters experienced the prevailing rates of
  mortality.
• Takes into account both fertility and survival
  but difficult to calculate (detailed data
  required). All problems of period indicator (not
  applicable to real cohorts)

7
Age-specific fertility by residence in Belarus
(2007)
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Existing explanations of fertility drop during
the 1990s

• Economic crisis (uncertainty about the future and
  increasing the costs of child rearing)
• Socio-cultural change (transition towards more
  western practices of family formation and
  childbearing)
• Soviet pronatalist policies in the early 1980s
  (benefits for women giving birth to the 3rd
  child, 3-year paid maternity leave) accelerated
  births which otherwise would happen later

9
Distribution of Russian households by number of
children below age 18 in 2002
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Families with many children in Russia

• Only 6.6 of families in Russia have more than 3
  children
• Proportion of families with 3 and more children
  differs from 53 in Ingushetiya to 1 in
  St-Peterburg
• Families with 3 and more children are the poorest
  compared to families with less children and have
  poor housing conditions
• However self-rated health of children in these
  families does not differ from families with less
  children

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New Survey in Russia

• Two waves of demographic survey Parents and
  children, men and women in family and society as
  a part of international scientific program
  Generations and Gender.
• First wave was conducted in 2004 and had 11,261
  respondents.
• Second wave took place in 2007 and had 11,117
  respondents
• Panel component 7,786 respondents aged 21-82
  years.

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Effect of income on fertility (number of children
per woman)
Higher income Lower income
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Other factors of fertility (between two survey
waves)

• Having a partner (formal marriage status not
  important)
• Previous children probability of the second
  child was almost twice as lower and probability
  of the third and other child almost 7 times as
  lower compared to the first child
• Rural residence (fertility in rural areas 1.4
  times higher than in urban areas)
• Maternal age fertility is obviously higher
  among younger women (lt35 years)
• Effect of education and employment status is not
  strong

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Factors of fertility decline (in ) between 1989
and 1999 in Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz women Russian women
Total changes in TFR -40.9 -41.3
Changes in TFR due to
1. Changes in marriage structure (postponing marriage) -15.2 -26.1
2. Induced abortions -10.0 -8.5
3. Other (contraception, longer lactation, etc.) -15.7 -6.7
Decomposition using method of Bongaarts and
Potter (1983)
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Family in Russia, Reproductive Health and
Marriage Patterns
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Marriage

• Marriage is a legal contract between two
  individuals to form a sexual, productive, and
  reproductive union
• Important characteristics of marriage
• permanence, joint production, coresidence, and
  the social recognition of a sexual and
  childbearing union (Waite, Gallagher)

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Measures of marriage

• Crude marriage rate number of marriages per
  1000 population
• Pros Easy to calculate
• Cons Is affected by population structure
  (proportion of birth cohorts at young adult ages)

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Number of marriages and crude marriage rate in
Russia
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Crude marriage rates (per 1000 population) in
Russia, USA, and Estonia
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Russia Recent trends in marriage

• In 2001-2005 marriage rates increased (in 2005
  crude marriage rate 7.5 per 1000 - returned to
  its levels of early 1990s)
• The number of first marriages grew faster than
  the number of marriages of other orders (by 29.5
  for men and 30.2 for women during 1998-2005)
• However the proportion of second and higher order
  marriages now (24-28 of all marriages) is 10
  higher than 20 years ago

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Marriage and divorce rates in Russia after 1979
22
Regional distribution of marriage rates per 1000
population in Russia, 1999
23
Age-specific marriage rates in Russia
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Total first marriage rate (TFMR)

• Total first marriage rate the probability of
  first marriage for a person if he/she passed
  through ages 1549 conforming to the age-specific
  first marriage rates of a given year refers to a
  synthetic cohort. It is calculated as the sum of
  the age-specific first marriage rates observed in
  a given year.
• The indicator can exceed 1 in the years of rapid
  increase in the number of marriages, although it
  is excluded that a person can contract more than
  one first marriage.
• Indicates popularity of marriage

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Total first marriage rate, Russia
26
Age-specific first-marriage rates per 1000 in
Russia
27
Mean age at first marriage in Russia, USA and
Estonia
28
Total divorce rate divorces per 1000 marriages,
Russia
29
Regional distribution of divorce rates per 1000
population in Russia, 1999
30
Degradation of divorce statistics after 1999

• Legislation of 1999 after the court decision
  former husband and wife were allowed to take
  their divorce certificates in any local branch of
  ZAGS rather than in the ZAGS where their marriage
  was registered
• Result double counting of divorces
• Attempted to correct in 2003
• Increasing number of divorced with unknown age

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Marriage and divorce rates in Russia after 1979
32
Age-specific divorce rates (per married
population) in Kyrgyzstan

• Solid line 1999
• Dotted line 1989
• Blue- men
• Red - women

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Kyrgyzstan Marriage did not become more stable

• In the 1990s the decline in divorces was slower
  than decline in marriages
• Marriage rate decline by 45 and divorce rate
  declined by 34
• So the ratio of total divorce rate to total
  marriage rate increased from 0.22 to 0.27. That
  is, for 100 marriages there were 27 divorces in
  1999 compared to 22 divorces in 1989 (calculated
  for synthetic cohort)

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Family in Russia before the bolshevik revolution

• Patriarchal family, many children
• Marriages are registered by church

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Marriages in Russia, legislation

• Bolsheviks introduced civil marriages as the only
  recognized union
• The Code of 16 September, 1918
• Fixed age of women at 16 years and men at 18
  years
• Equality of spouses
• Equal rights of children born in marriage and
  outside of marriage

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Family in the USSR

• Soviet court

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The Code of USSR Republics adopted in 1926

• Facilitated divorces (only one spouse could
  request divorce, the other spouse being informed
  by mail divorce by postcard)
• Recognized de facto marriages (not officially
  registered)
• It was the most liberal marriage legislation in
  Russian history

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Woman in the Soviet Union

• Had equal rights with men
• Including the right for labor
• Soviet poster encourages women to fight outdated
  rules and customs of the past

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Women in the Soviet Union

• Had equal rights with men in all regards

Could elect and be elected
40
Women Who Report Having Suffered Physical Abuse
by a Spouse or Partner (survey in 1993-2001)
Note Data for Russia cover three urban areas
only. All data represent lifetime experiences of
abuse.
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Tightening of legislation after 1936

• The Decree of 27 June 1936 made divorce costly
  (first resulted in 65 fall of the number of
  divorces)
• The Decree of 1941 On taxes on unmarried, single
  and childless citizens of the USSR
• The Decree of 1944 cancelled the recognition of
  de facto unions (triggered off the wave of
  marriages)

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Liberalization of legislation after death of
Stalin

• 1954 marriages with foreign citizens allowed
• 1955 abortion was once again permitted
• 1957 the tax on the single was annulled
• 1966 the divorce procedure was simplified (in
  1966-1967 the number of divorces almost doubled)

43
Proportion of remarriages per 100 marriages (all
orders), Russia
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Marriage in traditional societies

• Sexual, matrimonial and reproductive behaviors
  are tightly bound

Marriage in modern societies

• Sexual, matrimonial and reproductive behaviors
  are not strongly related
• Russia and other FSU countries are at the
  beginning of transition to the modern type of
  family

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New trends in union formation and fertility in
Russia

• Increasing age at first marriage
• Growing proportion of cohabitation at younger
  ages
• Rapid decline of fertility at very young ages
• Postponement of first births in real birth
  cohorts
• Decline of abortions and simultaneous decline of
  births before age 25
• Increasing contribution of older mothers into
  total fertility
• Decreasing number of marriages stimulated by
  pre-marital conceptions

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Current trends in marriage

• Young men do not rush to marry even in the case
  of unexpected pregnancy of female partner
• Young women tend to marry men with resources
• As a result, increase in the mean age at marriage
  particularly for men (by 2.5 years for men and
  1.9 years for women from 1993 to 2005)
• Decrease in the number of births at very young
  ages
• Increase in the mean difference between husband
  and wife ages (from 2 years to 2.8 years)

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Increasing proportion of cohabitation

• Proportion of unregistered unions increased from
  11.4 in 1994 to 32.6 in 2002 for age group
  18-19 years
• In the age group 20-24 years this proportion
  increased from 6.7 in 1994 to 19 in 2002
• Similar trends for older age groups
• Demographers called it silent revolution in
  marriage

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Rapid decline of fertility at very young
agesAge-specific fertility at different ages
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Increasing age at first marriage (women)
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Reproductive health
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Abortions in Russia

• 1988  - 4.6 million 1990 - 3.92 million 1995 -
  2.57 million 2000 - 1.96 million 2002 - 1.78
  million
• Source Russian Ministry of Health

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Soviet poster circa 1925 against criminal
abortions
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Abortion rates in Russia and USA
54
(No Transcript)
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Abortion rates in Europe
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Changing pattern of abortion

• By the late 1980s, the number of women using
  modern contraceptive methods to prevent births
  exceeded the number who used abortion to do so.
• Russian contraceptive access has increased in
  part through efforts by the Russian government
  and the United States Agency for International
  Development (USAID)

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Abortion and modern contraceptives use (IUD,
pills) in Russia
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Trends in Abortion Rates in BelarusNumber of
abortions per 1000 women aged 15-49
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Trends in Abortion Rates in BelarusNumber of
abortions per 100 births
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Reproductive Health Trends in Eastern Europe and
Eurasia

• Report of Population Reference Bureau (2003)
• by Lori Ashford

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Based on population surveys

• Two U.S.-based agencies, the Centers for Disease
  Control and Prevention (CDC) and ORC Macro,
  helped national institutions conduct surveys in
  Eastern Europe and Eurasia from 1993 to 2001.
• The two types of surveys, Reproductive Health
  Surveys (RHS) and Demographic and Health Surveys
  (DHS), interviewed women from a representative
  sample of households in each country to gather
  extensive information on fertility, family
  planning, maternal and infant health, and other
  reproductive health topics.
• Major support came from the U.S. Agency for
  International Development, with funding in some
  countries from the United Nations Population Fund
  and UNICEF.

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Fertility decline in selected FSU countries
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Abortions

• In most countries, abortions are most common
  among women ages 20 to 34.
• Most women who reported having an abortion said
  that they did not want and could not afford
  another child. The vast majority of abortions
  follow unintended pregnancies, which mainly occur
  among women who do not use contraception or who
  use traditional methods that have relatively high
  failure rates.
• Between 71 percent and 90 percent of unintended
  pregnancies end in abortion, indicating that
  women are strongly motivated to avoid an
  unplanned birth.

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Trends in abortion rates in selected countries
In many Central Asian countries decline in
abortion rates was caused by emigration of
Russians who have higher abortion rates compared
to local ethnic groups
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Reproductive health indicators in 1996-2001, FSU
Lifetime number of abortions per woman Mothers receiving prenatal care (1st trimester) Births Outside Medical Facilities ()
Russia 2.3 83 1.8
Ukraine 1.6 66 0.9
Armenia 2.6 54 8.5
Azerbaijan 3.2 45 26.3
Georgia 3.7 63 7.8
Kazakhstan 1.4 60 1.6
Kyrgyzstan 1.5 72 3.8
Turkmenistan 0.8 72 4.2
Uzbekistan 0.6 73 5.9
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Potential Need for Modern Contraceptive Methods
Includes married, fecund women who say they
would prefer to avoid a pregnancy but who either
are not using any contraception or are using a
traditional method such as withdrawal or periodic
abstinence.
67
Traditional contraception methods and abortions