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Title: We need more


1
We need more more maize
Dr. Dinesh T. Bhosale March 21, 2013
2
Corn to Six-Week Peak on Dwindling Supplies
Source Reuters
(dated 19/03/2013)

March 19 - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rose nearly 1 percent on Tuesday to a six-week peak on dwindling supplies of corn, slow farmer selling and firm cash basis markets.

Active spot May futures broke above technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, reaching a session high of 7.31 per bushel, the highest for a spot contract since Feb. 6. "Corn is reflecting the tight cash situation and strong basis levels. I also think they're putting a little premium in ahead of the USDA report next week," McCambridge said. Tight supplies of U.S. corn are expected to again be confirmed when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases its quarterly stocks report at 1100 a.m. CDT ( 1600 GMT) on Thursday, March 28. USDA also will release its prospective plantings of U.S. crops on that day. In its March supply/demand report, the USDA projected the smallest supply of corn in 17 years at the end of summer in the United States, the world's largest supplier. Wheat resumed its upward march, a day after tumbling 1.5 percent as investors liquidated long positions on concern about bank deposits in Cyprus and how a bailout in the country would affect the euro zone. Wheat's tumble on Monday also reflected profit taking after seven straight sessions of advances. "We pushed the market down to oversold conditions so there is some short-covering and profit-taking," said Shawn McCambridge, analyst for Jefferies Bache. "Also, we're seeing some export tenders show up so it looks like we've gotten down to a point to draw some business in." Soybeans reversed five days of losses and firmed as investors saw the potential for increased U.S. export business amid slow shipments of soy from South America and following news that China, the world's largest soybean buyer, planned to cancel soy orders from Brazil. Soybean futures had tumbled near 5 percent over the past five trading sessions as China moved to the sidelines, a large crop of South American soy became available to buyers and as crop weather prospects improved in the United States. At 1049 a.m. CDT (1549 GMT) , CBOT May wheat was up 7-1/4 cents per bushel at 7.20 per bushel, May corn was up 6 at 7.26 and soybeans for May delivery were up 8-1/2 cents per bushel at 14.18. CHINA'S MOVES SCRUTINIZED EURO ZONE'S TOO Traders said the soybean market was on edge after China's leading soybean trader, the Sunrise Group, said it would cancel almost 2 million tonnes of Brazilian soybean cargoes because shipments have been delayed by severe port congestion in the South American nation, a company official said on Tuesday. "The Chinese cancellations indicates Chinese demand is a little softer than people realized. If they really needed the beans they wouldn't have canceled," said Sterling Smith, futures specialist for Citigroup. Wheat, corn and soybean investors also were nervous a day after prices slid on a strong dollar and risk aversion on fears of financial turmoil in Cyprus and the euro zone. "Grains and beans could work lower unless there is a big breakdown in the dollar, which is doubtful given the Cyprus situation," Smith said. "People will probably keep buying the dollar and selling commodities." The dollar was flat to firm and crude oil was weak as global markets continued to digest the potential longer-term impact of the bailout of Cyprus and that country's plans for a levy on bank deposits to raise cash for recapitalisation of its banking sector. The chairman of euro zone finance ministers said there will be no need to impose a levy on assets in other euro zone countries. U.S. crop watchers were also encouraged by better weather. "There also is more moisture in the Midwest which will improve soil moisture," Citigroup's Smith said. Below-normal temperatures and wetter weather are expected in the U.S. crop belt over at least the next two weeks, which will help boost depleted soil moisture reserves but also slow early spring fieldwork and corn plantings, an agricultural meteorologist said on Tuesday. "It looks like below normal temperatures on into the first of April so there certainly won't be much planting done," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services.
3
From allaboutfeed.net
  • India Decline in maize production
  • According to Second Advance Estimates of
    Production of Foodgrains for 2012-2013 forecast,
    there is a 3.2 decline in the production of
    maize from 21.76 million tonnes to 21.06 million
    tonnes."In a globalised and market determined
    economy, there is always a competing demand on
    raw materials from different user industries,"
    said Union Commerce Industry Minister Anand
    Sharma in a written reply in the Lok Sabha. "At
    present, there is no such proposal to ban or
    restrict the export of maize," he said. "The
    export of agricultural products depends on
    various factors including availability of surplus
    over and above the requirement of buffer stock
    including strategic reserve, if any, concerns of
    food security, diplomatic/humanitarian
    considerations, international demand and supply
    situation, quality standards in the importing
    countries, varieties traded and price
    competitiveness, need to balance between
    remunerative prices to the growers and
    availability of agricultural products to common
    man at affordable prices," said the
    minister.(allaboutfeed.net)

4
Hindu Business Line
  • Chicken may rule firm as demand outstrips supply
  • Rising prices of maize are likely to be a source
    of concern for the Reserve Bank of India over the
    next two years, with the demand-supply gap for
    the key feed ingredient expected to exacerbate in
    this period. Food inflation in India has been
    driven by a sharp rise in the cost of poultry
    meat, which in turn has been spurred by the
    spiral ascent of maize (corn) prices globally.
    Chicken prices shot up by 21 per cent in January
    2013 in comparison to the corresponding month of
    the previous year. It was the primary driver of
    food inflation during the month. Prices of
    poultry were nearly 14 per cent higher on an
    average in 2011-12 than the previous year.
    Simultaneously, eggs and milk prices have also
    been rising steadily as a consequence of costlier
    feed. According to International Grains Council
    (IGC) forecasts, production of maize is expected
    to fall short of consumption by 15 million tonnes
    (mt) in 2013-14, resulting in upward pressure on
    prices in India and overseas. The gap is expected
    to narrow to 3 mt in 2014-15 as cultivation of
    the crop is stepped up and in 2015-16, the
    situation will vastly improve as production
    outstrips demand by 3 mt, which will expand to 7
    mt in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Over the past five
    years, production of maize has only risen by 0.9
    per cent, even as consumption grew by 1.7 per
    cent. In 2013-14, however, production will shoot
    up by 10.3 per cent and consumption by 6.2 per
    cent. Over the 2014-15 to 2017-18 period, demand
    is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent and
    consumption by 5.5 per cent. Spot prices of maize
    have fallen from their peak of Rs 15,770 a tonne
    on the MCX in August 2012. But the worst appears
    to be over and the long-term trend for the
    agri-commodity is upward. Corn is presently
    trading at Rs 13,125 a tonne on the MCX. The
    immediate support is at Rs 12,950/ tonne and the
    support after this level is at Rs 11,750/ tonne.
    The key resistance will be at Rs 1,410 a tonne.
    Maize is the third-largest agricultural crop in
    India, accounting for over 50 per cent of total
    kharif coarse cereal production. Production of
    maize has grown at a compound annual growth rate
    (CAGR) of 4.9 per cent over the past decade and
    amounted to 21.5 mt in 2011-12. In contrast,
    consumption of maize has grown at a CAGR of 3.28
    per cent and stood at 18-18.5 mt last fiscal.
    Around 50 per cent of total consumption is used
    for feed, primarily poultry feed, while around
    5-10 per cent is used by the starch industry.The
    weather will play an important role in
    determining the extent of maize production in
    2013-14. Temperature, rainfall and moisture are
    factors that determine the condition of the crop.
    But the minimum support prices announced by the
    Government for maize will play an equally
    important role in motivating greater cultivation
    of the commodity.At any rate, the availability of
    substitute products at a cheaper rate could
    weaken demand, particularly if the price of corn
    becomes too high to stomach. For example, jowar
    and bajra may be substituted by poultry feed
    manufacturers instead of maize. But seasonal
    fluctuation should be expected, as prices tend to
    be lower as harvesting progresses and produce
    starts coming into the market, but rises at the
    time of sowing and before harvesting due to the
    tight supply situation.

5
Hindu Business Line
  • Indias demand for milk likely to touch 210 mt by
    2020-21 Amrita Patel
  • National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) Chairman
    Amrita Patel on Thursday said with increased
    income levels, the demand for milk is expected to
    go up to 200 -210 million tonnes by 2020-21, and
    called for collective efforts and increased
    productivity.While delivering the keynote address
    at the 41st Dairy Industry Conference, with the
    theme Global Dairy Industry and Food Security
    in Mumbai, she said the first obligation of the
    dairy industry is to continue to build and expand
    the domestic market and find creative ways with
    the Central and State Governments to ensure that
    an increasing proportion of children drink milk,
    according to an NDDB release here. Dr Patel
    pointed out that milk production has been growing
    at over four per cent annually compared to the
    growth in world milk production which is 2.75 per
    cent. Per capita availability of milk has also
    increased to 290 gm a day, which is comparable
    with the world per capita availability of 289
    gm/day. Stressing upon a scientific approach, she
    said a comprehensive Web-based National
    Information Network covering all aspects of
    productivity enhancement, i.e., breeding, feeding
    and healthcare, has been developed at NDDB and is
    available to any organisation, producer, service
    provider and policy maker that wishes to link up.
    The NDDB is also setting up a national HRD
    facility to offer need-based technical,
    managerial and leadership training programmes,
    deliver distance education and facilitate
    training of trainers. The dairy industry must
    ensure that prices remained affordable and
    competitive, she added.

6
Projected Changes In Livestock Population
(Million)
Category 2007 2020
CB cattle 33.06 65.30
Indigenous cattle 166.02 161.37
Buffalo 105.33 115.60
Sheep 71.56 74.78
Goat 140.53 142.23
Pigs 11.13 11.91
Poultry 648.83 1062.69
Fish 7.13 12.38
million tons
Crossbreds double, poultry 1.6 times, fish 1.7
times
Source NIANP, 2012
7
Status of Feed Availability ( Deficit / Surplus)
Under Different Scenario - 2011
Scenario I 100 each to productive non
productive animals Scenario II 90 to
productive animals 80 to non productive
animals Scenario III 90 to productive animals
60 to non productive animals
8
Estimated Requirement Availability of Feed
Resources By 2020
Category Requirements (million tons) Availability (million tons) Deficit
Dry fodder 530 404 24
Green fodder 880 590 33
Concentrate 96 61 37
NIANP Estimates
9
Potential Oilcake Availability In India For The
Period 2011
Oilseed Production (Million tons) Extraction rate of cake () Potential Oil Cake (MT)
Ground Nut 6.95 60 2.92
Rape Mustard 6.96 67 4.66
Soybean 12.2 73 8.91
Sesame 0.73 60 0.44
Sunflower 0.54 70 0.38
Lineseed 0.14 67 0.09
Niger 0.09 72 0.06
Safflower 0.09 70 0.06
Cotton 35.2 84 3.32
Total 20.85
  • kernels to nuts ratio- 70
  • million bales of 170 kg each consisting of 2/3
    seeds and 1/3 cotton
  • Assuming 60-70 of the potential availability (
    leaving aside the direct consumption, use as
    seeds, differences in extraction efficiency
    etc) the actual availability works out to be
    around 12-14 million tons.

10
2020
2012
Breeders
Broilers
Eggs
How large will the poultry industry be in 2020?
Source Internal analysis
11
Layer Feed Market
Sizing the market for poultry feed
Source BAHS 2010 (Ministry of Agriculture)
Internal estimates
12
Broiler Feed Market
Sizing the market for Poultry feed
Source BAHS 2010 (Ministry of Agriculture)
Internal estimates
13
2020
2012
How large will the aquaculture industry be in
2020?
Source Internal analysis
14
Fish Feed Market
Sizing the market for aqua feed
Source Internal estimates
15
Shrimp Feed Market
Sizing the market for aqua feed
Source Internal Estimates
16
Aquaculture upside growth potential is massive
State Potential area ( ha) Potential area ( ) Area developed (ha) Area developed ()
West Bengal 4,05,000 34.0 50,405 12.5
Orissa 31,600 2.7 12,877 40.8
Andhra Pradesh 1,50,000 12.6 76,687 51.1
Pondicherry 800 0.1 130 16.3
Tamil Nadu 56,000 4.7 5,286 9.4
Kerala 65,000 5.5 14,106 21.7
Karnataka 8,000 0.7 1,910 23.9
Goa 18,500 1.6 310 1.7
Maharashtra 80,000 6.7 1,281 1.6
Gujarat 3,76,000 31.6 2,271 0.6
Total 11,90,900 1,65,263 13.9
Source Internal data
17
Factors Affecting Usefulness Of Feed Ingredients
18
  • To a nutritionist maize is one of the golden
    ingredients which solves a lot of problems. It is
    a good source of energy and there is no other
    ingredient which can compete with maize in terms
    of its energy value. It is basically a source of
    energy and gives around 3250 kcal/kg ME. The main
    advantage of maize is that it contains less crude
    fiber and the number of incriminating factors are
    also very less in it. However, it is poor source
    of limiting amino acids.
  •  

19
  • In fact, if maize is available at good prices, it
    can be included at very high levels. Generally,
    in broiler diets the inclusion level of maize may
    vary between 55-70 from the starter to the
    finisher stages. As such there is no such upper
    limit for inclusion of maize because there is
    practically no toxic or antinutritional factors
    present there. Today we are looking for some
    alternative ingredients only because the price of
    maize has gone up. Had it been available at RS 11
    a kg then the formulation job would have been
    much easier.

20
  • Very difficult to get maize replaced as we do not
    have any ingredient which is comparable to maize
    in terms of nutritive values. The only comparison
    can be made with broken rice. However, in
    pelleted feeds, broken rice above 20-25 may pose
    problem in getting good quality pellets. Wheat
    may be another option but again you can not get
    as much energy from wheat as you can get from
    maize. However, when maize is not available or
    highly priced then alternatives may be bajra or
    jower. In mash feed broken rice will also work.
    Generally, for millets the 20-25 inclusion does
    not have any negative impact. Total replacement
    of maize is also possible with these ingredients
    although that will be a high risk affair.

21
Maize Requirements
  • Broiler Feeds 6.5 MMT
  • Layer Feeds 3.5 MMT
  • Cattle Feeds 1 MMT
  • Others 1 MMT
  • Total 12 MMT

22
Raw Material Quality The Major Issue
23
Raw Material Quality The Major Issue
24
How To Deal With The Quality Issues?
25
Yellow Maize Specifications
  • Moisture min 12 to max 14.0
  • Foreign matter max 2
  • Weevilled Seeds max 2
  • Damaged otherwise max 5
  • Discoloured/immature kernels max 5
  • Broken seeds max 2
  • Aflatoxin 30 ppb to 50 ppb
  • Free from live weevils
  •  

26
Private Sector
But That Would Require RD, Which Almost No
Indian Company Is Doing
Source European Commission, CII
27
Rs crore (Current Prices) Sector GDP FY2009-10 ICAR Budget FY2011-12
Livestock 170,237 533
Total Agriculture 767,119 4611
Livestock as of Total 22.2 11.6
By the way, most of this is for dairy!
ICAR budgets also ignore animal science
Source CSO, ICAR
28
Nutreco Tyson Foods
RD Expenses EUR 19.8 million USD 38.0 million
Total Sales EUR 4.9 billion USD 28.4 billion
RD as of Sales 0.40 0.13
Could we all agree to invest 0.25?
we need to adopt global animal science RD
funding benchmarks
Source Annual Reports
29
Office Bearers (2012 2014)
  • Dr. Dinesh T. Bhosale (Chairman)
  • Mr. Rahul Kumar (Deputy Chairman)
  • Dr. Sandeep Karkhanis (Deputy Chairman)
  • Mr. Amit Saraogi (Deputy Chairman)
  • Dr. P. G. Phalke (Hon Secretary)

30
Thank You !
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