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SS474: TERRORISM

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SS474: TERRORISM & COUNTERTERRORISM Lesson 3: Understanding Contemporary Terrorism Admin: 1) Assignment #1 due 8 Sept (next week) 2) Wednesday, 30 August: Guest Lecture – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: SS474: TERRORISM


1
SS474 TERRORISM COUNTERTERRORISMLesson 3
Understanding Contemporary Terrorism
  • Admin
  • 1) Assignment 1 due 8 Sept (next week)
  • 2) Wednesday, 30 August Guest Lecture BG(r)
    Russell Howard (E hour, Thayer 348)

2
History Review
  • What patterns and trends of historical terrorism
    inform our understanding of future threats?
  • C2
  • Strategic goals, objectives
  • Weapons, tactics
  • Targeting
  • Fundraising/Friendraising
  • Similar outcomes re group existence, changes in
    political environment
  • What else?
  • Future projections?
  • Who will likely turn to terrorism, and why?

3
History Review
  • Why do people resort to violence in pursuit of
    political or ideological ends?
  • Political contexts
  • Social contexts
  • Other options to achieve goals?
  • Implications for government policy?

4
History Review
  • What motivates terrorists?
  • Vision - shape the future
  • Power to achieve vision
  • Belief in higher cause
  • What else?
  • What role do economics, psychology, sociology or
    other grievances play in motivating terrorist
    groups?

5
History Review
  • What can we learn from historical examples of
    state response to terrorist organizations?
  • What works?
  • What doesnt?
  • Why?

6
Discussion Questions
  • What is your understanding of the new model of
    terrorism?
  • Compare and contrast the old and new terrorism
    for indicators relating to capabilities and
    future trends. Why did this shift occur?
  • What are the implications of the shift from old
    to new models of terrorism?
  • What is Al Qaeda? How and why did Al Qaeda evolve
    as it did?
  • How did Al Qaeda ascend to power? What are Al
    Qaeda's significant achievements?
  • How should we think of Al Qaeda today?
  • How do transnational terrorist organizations
    develop?
  • What are the implications of this evolution for
    counterterrorists?
  • Terrorist Network Analysis

7
Contemporary Terrorism
  • Website competitions

8
Elements of the New Terrorism
  • BG Howards model (updated) - 8 Ways Terrorism
    Has Changed
  • America is at risk
  • Terrorists are more violent different political
    aims
  • Terrorists have global reach and are
    transnational non-state actors implications for
    homeland security
  • Terrorists are better financed zakat, charity
    orgs., wealthy donors
  • Terrorists are better trained in tradecraft, AW,
    IW
  • Terrorist cells are more difficult to penetrate
    (esp. AQ)
  • Terrorists have access to more lethal weapons
    (Soviets, bio/nukes)
  • Success and/or failure are difficult to measure
    no clear outcome

9
Elements of the New Terrorism
  • Global in scope and strategic objectives
  • Generational in scope epic struggle, David vs.
    Goliath - Bin Laden as Robin Hood
  • The number of the brothers is large . . . I do
    not know everyone who is with us in this base or
    this organization. Bin Laden as Pied Piper.,
    with a constant call to jihad as the duty of
    every good Muslim
  • Educated members as martyrs in AQ longer
    planning cycles (9/11 hijackers arriving in U.S.
    as early as 1994)
  • Evolution into a political social movement, a
    global insurgency against Western-oriented
    globalization
  • Afghanistan and Iraq offering new locations for
    Jihad, indoctrination, tactical training, network
    formation

10
Elements of the New Terrorism
  • Increasing number and lethality of attacks
  • Attacks are carried out not by AQ or some other
    centralized group, but by affiliates and
    wanna-bes
  • Use of children and female suicide bombers by
    terrorist organizations
  • Info Ops role of technology
  • From DVDs and web videos to Al Jazeera
  • Availability of info on government security, CT
    efforts
  • EW another role of technology
  • Taking instruments from our daily lifethe
    backpack, the car, the shoe, the cell phoneand
    turning them into weapons. Goal damage the
    trust necessary for a successful open society
  • Shifting from small groups to motivated and
    resourceful individuals (Madrid, London)

11
A Protean Enemy
  • Al Qaeda is an increasingly decentralized
    organization, constantly evolving, and employs a
    "virtual network" concept learned from American
    right-wing extremists, which makes it harder to
    detect and destroy.
  • Willingness to adapt its mission enables it to
    forge broad alliances with other terrorist
    organizations and attract new recruits (including
    women).
  • Ability to secure coordination with other
    like-minded groups (like Hezbollah) and its links
    with organized crime (a crime boss in India gave
    100,000 to Mohammad Atta, the 9/11 hijack
    leader) underscore the advanced stages of
    organization (professionals sharing ideas,
    cross-training, resources, joint planning, etc.)
    that al Qaeda has achieved.

Stern, 2003
12
Netwar A Modern Form of Asymmetric Warfare
  • Netwar Information-related conflict at a grand
    level between nations or societies.
  • It means trying to disrupt or damage what a
    target population knows or thinks it knows about
    itself and the world around it.
  • A netwar may focus on public or elite opinion, or
    both.
  • It may involve diplomacy, propaganda and
    psychological campaigns, political and cultural
    subversion, deception of or interference with
    local media, infiltration of computer networks
    and databases, and efforts to promote dissident
    or opposition movements across computer
    networks. (John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt,
    1993 2001)

13
Networked Terrorism
  • Social interactions
  • Affiliation networksTies developed at events or
    activities, like sporting events, clubs, or
    religious meetings
  • Communities of identity
  • Communities of locality
  • District or geographic region in which people
    live, interact, or under which they are governed
  • Examples neighborhood, village, city, town or
    province
  • Communities of interest
  • Communities formed around a common interest or
    shared experience
  • Examples prisoners or inmates, members of the
    military, scientists, sports enthusiasts, and
    hobbyists comprise communities of interest.

14
Networked Terrorism
  • Three important concepts in social network
    analysis (SNA) diversity, redundancy, and
    adaptability
  • Diversity of identity individuals often have
    multiple identities a familial identity, an
    employment identity, a religious identity, an
    academic identity, etc.
  • Redundancy individuals sharing multiple
    identities across networks (e.g., two individuals
    attending the same church, graduating from the
    same university, and working in the same office
    building).
  • Multiple shared identities (location, religion,
    education, and employment) means that some links
    between sets of individuals may be
    disproportionately strong.
  • Adaptability relationships change over time - a
    social network may evolve as a persons interests
    change, he moves to another community, or his
    position within that community shifts.

15
Terrorist Network Structures
Source Networks and Netwars The Future of
Terror, Crime, and Militancy, John Arquilla and
David Ronfeldt (eds.), November 2001
16
Terrorist Network Structures
Source On Distributed Communications
Introduction to Distributed Communications
Networks, Paul Baran, August 1964
UNCLASSIFIED
17
Global Terrorism Networks
Interconnected terrorist groups, criminal
organizations, individuals, etc. around the
world.
18
Global Terrorism Networks
Interconnected terrorist groups, criminal
organizations, individuals, etc. around the
world.
Shared strategies Sharing tactics,
training Cross-fertilization, inter-organizationa
l learning Shared profits from trafficking in
drugs, arms, other contraband Increasingly
connected via technologies/Internet
19
Strategy and Training
  • Establish training camps developing the will to
    kill and the skill to kill
  • Operational space Geographic isolation
  • Teachers Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g.,
    military combat experience
  • Committed learners
  • Time, money, and basic necessities
  • Afghanistan
  • Algeria
  • Bosnia
  • Chechnya
  • Colombia
  • Egypt
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • Kashmir
  • Lebanon
  • Libya
  • Northern Ireland
  • Peru
  • The Philippines
  • Somalia
  • Spain
  • Sri Lanka
  • Sudan
  • Syria
  • Turkey
  • United States
  • Uzbekistan

Think back to your basic training or basic
officer courses...
20
Global Salafi Network
Interconnected by common ideology (Militant Islam
revivalist movement), with strong bonds formed
through fighting together, family, etc.
21
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24
Terrorist Networks
  • Even though its a decentralized network, there
    are still critical functions that enable the
    network to operate
  • Critical functionary roles can become a hub of
    multiple networks
  • weapons procurement
  • financier (funder or banker) (particularly in
    Halawa system)
  • document forgerer
  • human traffickers
  • Support individuals (trusted contacts) can and
    sometimes do support multiple networks can
    provide supplies/facilitate trafficking of
    weapons funds to multiple networks
  • Example 60 of day spent moving legitimate
    charity money around 20 of day on Hamas
    transactions, other activity on side
  • Some may get profit for doing these
    support/function roles

25
Different members of the network play support and
action roles
26
Networked Terrorism
  • Implications
  • We tend to target operational (attack/combat)
    cells and overlook support cells that disseminate
    propaganda, recruit members, procure supplies,
    maintain transport, forge false and adapted
    identities, facilitate travel, and organize safe
    houses.
  • For example, operating through front, cover, and
    sympathetic organizations, Al Qaeda and its
    associate groups established charities, human
    rights groups, humanitarian organizations,
    community centers, and religious associations to
    raise funds and recruit youth. (Gunaratna)

27
Networks to Map
Relationship/Network Data Sources
1. Trust Prior contacts in family, neighborhood, school, military, club or organization. Public and court records. Data may only be available in suspect's native country.
2. Task Logs and records of phone calls, electronic mail, chat rooms, instant messages, Web site visits. Travel records. Human intelligence observation of meetings and attendance at common events.
3. Money Resources Bank account and money transfer records. Pattern and location of credit card use. Prior court records. Human intelligence observation of visits to alternate banking resources such as Hawala.
4. Strategy Goals Web sites. Videos and encrypted disks delivered by courier. Travel records. Human intelligence observation of meetings and attendance at common events.
Table 3 Networks to Map

Krebs, 2002 - http//www.firstmonday.org/issues/is
sue7_4/krebs
28
Knowledge Transfer and Terrorist Networks
  • Learning Organizations committed to capturing
    knowledge, analyzing it, forming new doctrine and
    tactics which are informed by lessons from the
    past
  • Learn from each other
  • Learn from trial and error (IRA example)
  • Media showcasing best practices to others
  • Managing public image (PR) (becoming more
    sophisticated)
  • Emerging professional networks in the terrorist
    world

29
Knowledge Transfer and Terrorist Networks
  • The network challenge
  • As far back as 1968 the PLO . . . had welcomed
    terrorists from around the world to their
    guerilla camps in Jordan for training,
    indoctrination, and the general building of
    transnational revolutionary bridges. In this
    respect, the Palestinians pioneered the
    networking dimension of international terrorism
    still in evidence among many groups today.
  • Bruce Hoffman, 1997, p. 82

30
Knowledge Transfer and Terrorist Networks
  • The network challenge
  • Strategic partnerships between Al Qaeda and
    groups like Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiya, HT, IMU,
    and MILF, as well as drug cartels in Latin
    America and other criminal organizations
  • For example, Hezbollah . . . trained Al Qaeda
    fighters in Sudan, Lebanon, Iran . . .
    (Gunaratna, 2002, p. 196)(why would Shiite
    Muslims work so closely with Sunni Muslims?)

31
Challenges of Terror Networks
  • Overall CT challenge How to fight a network of
    networks
  • Specific challenges include
  • Identifying network members, especially when
    membership is hidden until demonstrated by overt
    behavior
  • Determining network structure, leadership/decision
    -making cells
  • Intelligence gathering/Infiltrating the network
  • Defending against an attack from unknown network
    members

32
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33
1. Joining the Jihad
  • 1.1 Decide on Jihad
  • 1.2 Joining the Jihad in Spirit
  • 1.3 Praying Honestly for Martyrdom

34
2. Financially Aiding the Jihad
  • 2.1 Jihad Through Money
  • 2.2 Tending to the Fighters Family
  • 2.3 Tending to Families of Martyrs
  • 2.4 Supporting the Families of Wounded and
    Imprisoned Fighters
  • 2.5 Collecting Donations
  • 2.6 Paying the Alms Tax for the Mujahidin

35
3. Other Support for Jihad
  • 3.1 Outfitting a Fighter
  • 3.2 Healing the Wounded
  • 3.3 Sheltering the Mujhadin and Providing them
    with Hospitality
  • 3.4 Freeing and/or Ransoming Prisoners

36
4. Public Education
  • 4.1 Praising the Mujahidin and Commemorating
    their Exploits
  • 4.2 Defending the Mujahidin
  • 4.3 Exposing the Hypocrites and Defeatists
  • 4.4 Urging People Toward Jihad
  • 4.5 Distributing books and Brochures
  • 4.6 Advising Muslims and the Mujahidin
  • 4.7 Distributing News of the Jihad
  • 4.8 Keeping Scholars Informed
  • 4.9 Spreading News of Prisoners

37
5. Aiding the Mujahideen Directly
  • 5.1 Encouraging the Mujahidin
  • 5.2 Guiding the Mujahidin
  • 5.3 Concealing the Mujahidins Secrets

38
6. Jihad Through Prayer
  • 6.1 Praying for the Mujahidin
  • 6.2 Qunut Prayers in time of calamity

39
7. Preparing for Active Jihad
  • 7.1 Physical Training
  • 7.2 Weapons Training and Marksmanship
  • 7.3 Swimming and Horsemanship
  • 7.4 First Aid

40
8. Intellectual Preparation
  • 8.1 Learning the Jurisprudence of Jihad
  • 8.2 Hostility and Hatred of the Infidels
  • 8.3 Electronic Jihad

41
9. Living as a Good Muslim
  • 9.1 Discouraging Friendship w/ Polytheists
  • 9.2 Abandoning Luxury
  • 9.3 Boycotting Goods
  • 9.4 Avoid Employing Hostile Labor
  • 9.5 Raising Children to Love Jihad

42
Questions?
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