The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts

1
The Race for World Leadership of Science and
Technology Status and Forecasts

• R. D. Shelton and P. Foland
• WTEC
• Baltimore, Maryland, USA
• Word version in Proceedings of the 12th
  International Conference On Scientometrics and
  Informetrics, pp. 369-380. Rio de Janeiro, July
  14-17, 2009.
• Both posted at itri2.org/Rpaper/

2
Outline

• Purposes
• Input Indicators (Table 1 in paper)
• Output Indicators (Table 2)
• Current National Positions with Extrapolation
  Forecasts
• Focus on Forecasting Scientific Paper Shares
• Conclusions

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Purposes

• Provide a set of indicators to evaluate current
  national leadership of ST (2005 data mostly).
• Provide forecasts based on recent trends to
  predict which country will lead in the near
  future.
• Provide detailed forecasts of numbers of
  scientific publications in SCI, with confirmation
  from other databases.

4
Model of a National Scientific Enterprise
The Black Box
ST Outputs
Resources In
Indicators measure inputs and outputs Multiple
linear regression can identify which inputs are
most important
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ST Input Indicators (2005)
Indicator U.S. EU27 PRC Units
1. Population 297 (1.0) 492 (0.4) 1308 (0.6) Millions
2. Researchers 1388 (1.0) 1300 (3.1) 1119 (10.6) Thousands
3. GDP 12376 (5.5) 13031(4.4) 5333 (12.9) Billions, PPP, current dollars
4. GERD 324 (1.7) 227 (2.2) 71 (18.9) Billions, PPP, current dollars, (percentage in constant dollars)
5. GERD Share 36 (-2.0) 26 (-1.5) 7.8 (14.7) Percent of OECD Group
Number of researchers and GERD are key INPUTS,
but can drive outputs, like publications. GERD is
much more significant than researchers.
Average annual percentage rates of change in
parentheses. Red emphasizes very rapid growth.
Data from OECD (2008/1).
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Population (thousands)
7
ResearchersOECD
This pattern will be seen in several indicators
the US and EU curves are close together, with
China below, but gaining quickly.
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GDP, Constant Year 2000 , PPP
This format de-emphasizes Chinas rapid gain
compared to the other two. Its GDP has trebled
over this interval.
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GERD, Constant Year 2000, PPP
(RD Investments)
10
GERD SHARE of OECD Group
World share of RD investment
Chinas gain comes at the expense of the other
two. This is a key driver for scientific
publication share, since both are zero-sum.
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GERD Real Increases Over the Previous Year
Chinas spectacular increases in RD investments
make its rapid gains in output indicators more
understandable.
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GERD Share WithForecasts Based on 5-year Average
This is based on a linear extrapolation of GERD,
then shares of all OECD countries are constrained
to add to 100.
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ST Output Indicators (2005)
Indicator US EU27 China Source
1. Quantity of Papers (SCI) 205,320 (1.5) 234,868 (1.3) 41,596 (17.0) NSB, 2008
2. Relative Impacts 1.47 (0.6) 1.09 (1.1) 0.63 (2.3) ISI, 2006
3. Triadic Patents 15,774 (1.2) 14,571 (0.9) 356(35.1) OECD, 2008
4. SE Ph.D. Production 26,275 (1.6) 45,398 (2) 14,858 (17.3) NSB, 2008Moguerou, 2006
5. Nobel Prizes (1950-2008) 168 260 3 Nobel, 2008, by birth
6. High-Tech Exports,World Market Share in Percent 19 (-3) 17 (0) 15 (30) EC, 2007
7. Trade Balance(Goods in Billion Euros, current) - 666 (5) - 127 (9) 82 (45) Eurostat, 2009
Average annual percentage rates of change in
parentheses. Red emphasizes rapid growth.
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SCI Publications (Fractional Count)
From NSF SEI 2008. NSF thinks U.S. plateau has
ended I disagree.
15
SE Doctoral Degrees
EU Germany and UK only EU27 curve would be far
above the US one.
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Increase of SE Doctoral Degrees Over the
Previous Year
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Triadic Patent Share
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PRC Triadic Patent Share
Growing fast from a very small base.
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Hi-Tech Exports (Market Share)EC (2007)
EU-27 doesnt include BG and RO
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(No Transcript)
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Summary of National Positions

• Whos ahead depends on indicators chosen
• In 2005 data the leader was
• US GERD, researchers, impacts, patents, hi-tech
  exports
• EU papers in SCI, SE PhDs, Nobels
• PRC trade balance
• But linear forecasts show the PRC will gain
• Lead hi-tech exports and researchers by 2010
• Pass EU in GERD by 2015 (US will still lead)
• Pass US in SE PhDs by 2015 (EU will still lead)
• Lead in papers in SCI by 2017 (more later)

2005 snapshot shows US leading, as the gurus have
stated, BUT
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Focus on Scientific Papers

• While growing fast in the Science Citation Index
  (SCI), China is far behind, however the Shelton
  Model forecasts that it will soon pass the US and
  EU to lead the world
• Some confirmation comes from other databases,
  where China is already a contender
• Inspec
• Scopus
• Compendix

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More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside
the Black Box)
Inputs
Papers Published
p1
US
g1
EU
Journal Editors
AT
ROW
G (total)
P (total)
mi pi/P Paper share
wi gi/G GERD share
National Research Systems -- Fairly Independent
Highly Interdependent Paper Selection
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A Simple Model for Country i mi k iwi

• mi is share of papers published (fractional
  basis)
• wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group
• k i is a "constant" of proportionality it
  differs by country.
• k i is also the efficiency of country i in
  producing papers per 1 million in GERD,
  normalized by the OECD average efficiency.
• For data in a single year the equation is an
  identity, but it is most useful over a range of
  years when k i is approximately constant

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Since 1998, ki Has Been Fairly Constant for THESE
Countries
Ki Relative Efficiency
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
US
EU27
0.8
PRC
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
EU is 40 more efficient than average. US and
PRC are not so different, at about 20 below
average.
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Paper Share in Science Citation IndexForecast
Based on Shelton Model
The PRC is likely to soon lead the world in
scientific publications.
This is based on RD investments ( the GERD share
driver), not an linear forecast of publications.
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Scientific PublicationsINSPEC
China is already taking the lead in this physical
science database.
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Scientific PublicationsSCOPUS
China has already passed the EU in this database.
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Scientific PublicationsCOMPENDEX
China is already taking the lead in this physical
science database.
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Conclusions

• 2005 indicators show the US and EU about even,
  with China well below
• However, China is growing rapidly
• Linear forecasts predict that China will soon
  pass the US and EU in key indicators
• Perhaps most significant to scientometricians is
  the forecast that they will soon lead the world
  in the SCI
• I predict that, if present trends continue, the
  PRC will lead the world in ST by 2017.

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Appendix Extra Slides

• More info at http//itri2.org/Rpaper/

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Demonstration that the end of U.S. plateau in
publications is an artifact of the increases in
the total SCI database
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Linear Extrapolation Details
Some indicators are zero sum--GERD share, for
example. Results need to be constrained to add
to 100.