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Ireland

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Ireland s Response to the Looming World Energy Crisis by Colin Campbell ASPO Background 1951-7 Studied geology at Oxford PhD on Connemara geology That started a ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Ireland


1
Irelands Response to theLooming World Energy
Crisis
  • by
  • Colin Campbell
  • ASPO

2
Background
  • 1951-7 Studied geology at Oxford
  • PhD on Connemara geology
  • That started a long love affair with Ireland
  • 1958 - Joined the oil industry
  • Exploration geologist in Latin America
  • 1972- 90 Executive, Europe, Norway
  • Pioneered Irish exploration venture 1972-76
  • 1990 Retired - if that is the word

3
On a mule in Colombia in 1960
4
Outline
  • Geological background
  • You have to find it first
  • Depletion is easy to grasp
  • Why and how self-evident reality has been
    concealed and confused
  • A Devastating Realisation
  • Irelands Response

5
News Flash
53 New York October 11
But may crash with Recession
6
PETROLEUM GEOLOGY in3 Minutes
7
Extreme Global Warming gave excessive Algal
Growths
90 150 million years ago
Organic debris
8
And then came the rains
Trough filled by sediment
Chemical reactions converted organic debris into
oil when buried heated
9
North SeaOil GeneratingTrends-Where oil is
and where it is not
10
Migration of Oil
2. Escape
Surface of the Earth
3. Oilfield
1.Dissipation
2
3
1
Oil generation at 2000m depth
Source
11
Critical Temperature 60-120 0C
12
A Fixed Quantity
  • Oil was formed in the geological past
  • You cant grow more
  • Running Out? Not the main issue
  • We started running out with the first barrel
  • The last barrel is far in the future
  • But production begins to decline when half is
    gone - THAT IS THE ISSUE

13
Why we need to know
  • Oil Gas now dominate our lives
  • 40 of traded energy is oil
  • gt90 transport fuel is oil
  • Trade depends on transport
  • Much electricity from gas
  • Critical for agriculture
  • fuelling the tractor
  • synthetic nutrients and pesticides
  • pumping irrigation

14
Why were nt we told?
  • Oil companies reported financial reserves to
    meet strict stock exchange rules
  • They under-reported revised upwards over time
  • A comforting but misleading image of steady
    growth
  • No conspiracy, just simple commercial prudence
  • Those days are over - the Shell debacle
  • OPEC over-reported as they competed for quota
    based on reserves
  • PUBLIC NUMBERS - VERY UNRELIABLE

15
OPEC Reserve Revisions Change From Remaining Rese
rves To Total Found
16
Reality and Illusion
Illusion
Inflexion due to falling Discovery
Reality
17
US-48
Peak to Peak 40 years
18
Egypt
Peak to Peak 30 years
19
Indonesia
Peak to Peak 32 years
20
Russia
Peak to Peak 27 years
21
United Kingdom
Peak to Peak 25 years
22
Real Discovery Trend
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
Past after ExxonMobil
23
Draining the tanks - Regular Oil
150 Yet-to-Find
Surprise
Filling at 3.75 p.a
?
920 Produced 1700 DISCOVERED 780 Remaining
Emptying at 22 p.a.
Billion barrels
One in - Six out
24
Where is it?Regular Oil
25
All Oil Gas
All boundaries fuzzy
26
The Devastating Realisation
  • So, oil will soon be in terminal decline
  • Gas follows a few years later
  • Colossal Impact
  • Economy - stockmarket crash inevitable
  • Society
  • Politics
  • Environment
  • We are totally unprepared

27
End of the First Half of Oil Age
  • First half lasted 150 years, stimulating
  • Industry
  • Transport trade
  • Agriculture people
  • Growth of financial capital
  • Second Half dawns, meaning decline of oil
  • And all that depends on it
  • Including Financial Capital
  • Spelling Recession - Depression

28
Population
?
First Oil Well
29
But World begins to wake up
  • This has been evident for years but denied
  • We faced malign influence of Economists with
    outdated principles and practices
  • Now at last, high prices force admission by
  • World Energy Council
  • International Energy Agency - obliquely
  • Even BP (long bent on denial) now confesses
  • US prefers military conquest of oil to cutting
    excessive demand

30
What this means for Ireland
  • Small population but high per-capita oil use
  • USA- 27 barrels a year per person
  • Ireland- 15.6
  • Europe Average- 13.1
  • India- 0.9
  • Gas - critical for electricity
  • Slim chance of finding more oil or gas

31
Irelands Electricity
  • Priority in the early days of the Republic
  • Shannon Hydro-electric scheme
  • Rural electrification by ESB
  • Electricity came to Ballydehob in 1951
  • It was a National Priority
  • But then the CELTIC TIGER stalked in by dead of
    night sold out to the Market

32
Irelands Electricity fuel
Gas
Coal
Oil
Peat
Renewables
85 Imported !
33
Gas Supply
  • At first, Kinsale Head field supplied enough
  • Then tapped into the UK hypermarket
  • UK over-produced and prices fell
  • But the Celtic Tiger could easily afford it
  • Now we plan to half-privatise the ESB
  • stimulating yet more consumption
  • The Regulator tries even to cut costs to consumer
  • But without a thought for the future.

34
(No Transcript)
35
Gas - the unexpected cliff
Hidden Spare Capacity
No market signal of cliff
Production Plateau
36
Irelands gas balance
UK net export ends
At HighRisk
Kinsale
Corrib
With flat demand
37
Where will gas come from ?
  • Britain becomes a net importer - from
  • Norway
  • Siberia
  • Central Asia, Middle East, N. Africa.
  • Many hungry transit countries in between
  • Ireland at the end of the line
  • Will Britain re-export to Ireland ?
  • When she needs all she can get
  • and at what price?

38
A Grave Crisis in the Making
  • This is a major crisis in the making
  • the lights will go out unless something is done
  • An economic recession affecting everyone
  • The Government seems blissfully ignorant
  • Misplaced faith that the market must deliver
  • Relies on bad advice form IEA, EU
  • It needs to use the short time left to prepare
  • Everyone needs to know and contribute

39
Plan of Action
  • Fund a small office to study properly
  • Launch a programme of public education
  • Dont wait for Brussels
  • It is an investment giving Ireland a strong
    competitive edge
  • Take a lead in a World Depletion Protocol
  • Back the 2005 Lisbon Initiative

40
Solution-1 Stop waste
  • Domestic and industrial energy audits
  • Charges to penalise waste reward savings.
  • A modest cheap ration but high price for excess
  • Better insulation industrial heat recovery
  • Disallow energy costs as a charge against tax
  • Stop tax-free aviation fuel
  • More public transport

41
Solution-2 Turn to Renewables
  • A solar collector on every roof
  • Capture massive tidal and wave energy
  • Wind-power and hydro-power
  • Biomass - wood pellets from forestry
  • Geothermal
  • Heat pumps modern light bulbs
  • Even nuclear ? (New small fail-safe plants)

42
Solution-3 Secure sources
  • Dont close coal power - clean it
  • Negotiate with Norway (and other places) for
    privileged access to oil and gas.
  • Irelands needs are modest and could be met
  • Pay premium to-day for security tomorrow
  • might still be time to buy into oil and gas
    fields
  • Fill the tanks on Whiddy Island
  • Build terminal for Liquefied gas

43
Consequences - Silver Linings
  • A new regionalism
  • Local markets
  • New attitudes return to the land
  • People live in better harmony with
  • themselves
  • each other
  • the Environment in which Nature has ordained them
    to live

44
The Celtic Fox thrives in Ireland The Tiger
belongs to the Zoo
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