A Composite Index of Market Access for the Export of Rice from the U.S

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• A Composite Index of Market Access for the Export
  of Rice from the U.S
• Eric Wailes, University of Arkansas

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Overview

• Study approach
• US rice sector structure
• Price Ladder
• Prices
• Costs
• Subsidies/Taxes
• Assessment of CIMA

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Study approach

• US export a wide variety of rice types to 160
  countries
• Composite Index of Market Access (CIMA)
• Used similar methods as Uruguay and Thailand case
  studies
• Period of study 2006, 2007 and 2008

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Data sources

• Trade data
• USDA FAS GATS online (10 digit HS schedule)
• UN COMTRADE
• Price data
• USDA
• Cost data
• Industry sources and cost models
• Subsidies and tax data
• WTO, USDA

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Data on the U.S. Rice Sector
Item m. cwt. 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Beginning Stocks 37.7 43 39.3 29.4
Production 222.8 194.6 198.4 203.7
Imports 17.1 20.6 23.9 19.2
Total Supply 277.7 258.2 261.6 252.4
Domestic Use 119.9 128.1 127.4 128.4
Exports 114.8 90.8 104.7 93.6
Total Use 234.7 218.8 232.2 222
Ending Stocks 43.0 39.3 29.4 30.4
Exports/Production 51.5 46.7 52.8 45.9
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Major US rice import markets
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Major US rice import markets
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US rice exports by type
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US rice exports by type
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US rice industry product flow
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US rice product process flow
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Market structure of US Rice

• 10,000 farms
• 2,000 on-farm drying/storage facilities
• 300 commercial elevators (attached/unattached
  to mills)
• 40 rice mills (cooperatives are dominant in
  Arkansas and California)
• Major export ports New Orleans, San Francisco,
  Houston

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Price Ladder

1. Prices received by farmers
2. Elevator/mill paddy price
3. Processed price at mill
4. Port price (FOB)
5. Destination price (CIF)
6. Final price at importer

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Prices received by farmers
Source USDA, ERS, Rice Outlook, 2008
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Prices at elevator/mills

• Rough rice price
• Equals Farm price
• Plus
• Transport cost farm to elevator/mill 9.92/mt
• Drying/storage costs 29.39 / mt
• Assume average storage 6 months
• Inspection/grading costs 1.76 / mt

Source Industry sources
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Prices at elevator/mills

• Processed price
• Rough rice price at mill
• Converted to milled equivalent
• Brown rice (conversion factor 0.8)
• Milled rice (converstion factor 0.55 (long), and
  0.6 (medium))
• Plus
• Milling costs
• Brown 45.45/mt
• White 54.54/mt

Source Industry sources and cost models
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Prices at ports (FOB)

• Elevator rough rice price or mill processed price
  Plus
• Transport cost to port from elevator or mill
• Inspection and certification fees
• Inspection fees 3.31/mt
• GM certification 10/mt

Source Industry sources and cost models
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Prices at importer (CIF)

• Export price (FOB)
• Plus
• Ocean freight rates and insurance
• Mexico 30/mt
• EU 87/mt
• Turkey 95/mt
• Japan 86/mt

Source Industry sources and cost models
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Prices at importer (with taxes/subsidies)

• Import price (CIF)
• Plus
• Duties and taxes
• Mexico 0/mt
• EU 65 euro/mt plus 4 VAT
• Turkey 34 ad valorem/mt
• Japan Markup 292 Yen/kg for MA and 341 Yen/kg
  for over MA

Source WTO, USDA, EU Commission
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Calculation of CIMA

• Barriers to Market Access (BMA) equals
• Import duties Excise taxes health/safety
  standard costs
• Barrier to market access percentage (BMAP) equals
  
• BMA/Import price (CIF) 100
• CIMA 1 BMAP

Source WTO, USDA, EU Commission
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Comments/questions about CIMA

• Are all forms of protection quantifiable?
• Licensing, TRQs, etc.
• Why aggregate?
• Value as a benchmark?
• Value in negotiations?
• Value in dispute resolution?

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Data issues for CIMA

• More difficult for more differentiated products
• Easier for countries with strong information/data
  systems about production, processing and
  marketing costs
• To extent that data relies on private sector, it
  invites strategic behavior in terms of access to
  and quality of information provided.