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ABB Dublin Marketing Plan Overview


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Title: ABB Dublin Marketing Plan Overview

Nuclear post Fukushima the position of WEC
Members Alessandro Clerici WEC Chair of Study
Group Survey of Energy Resources and
Technologies Senior Advisor to The President
of ABB Italy
  1. What is WEC
  2. Global Energy Situation
  3. WEC Nuclear Task Force

1) What is WEC
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2) Global Energy Situation
  • World population now 6.7 billion people (300000
  • In the last 10 years population 12 primary
    energy 20
  • electricity 30
  • 1.6 billion human beings with no electricity
  • Electricity always more important Electric
    Energy in 2030 will consume 44 of primary
    energy resources for its production (36 in
  • Worldwide 40 of CO2 emissions are caused by
    production of electricity 10 bt/year (while
    transports are at 6 bt).
  • In China during the period 2006-2010 commissioned
    300 MW/day of new power plants (100 GW/year)
    of which 80 coal-fueled CO2 emissions from
    only these new plants is 2.2 bt/year.
  • EC reduction target of CO2 is 20 in 2020 (0.8
    bt/year), equal to less than 2 of the expected
    global emissions in 2020.

What are the prevailing trends impacting
energy?- Growth in population, increased
urbanization/large cities- Living standards and
demand increase especially in LDCs,- CO2
All values rebased to 100 Source International
Energy Agency, Global Insight
World primary energy demand in the Reference
Scenario 2008 12000 MTEP
World energy demand expands by 45 between now
and 2030 an average rate of increase of 1.6
per year with coal accounting for more than a
third of the overall rise
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Based on present proven resources (R) and actual
    production (P)
  • oil R/P 40 years
  • gas R/P 60 years
  • coal R/P 200 years
  • But resources for potential unconventional oil
  • oil shale (80 in USA)
  • natural bitumen (60 in Canada)
  • extra heavy oil (95 Venezuela)
  • are large and economic for stable oil prices
    above 90 US/bbl.
  • The boom of shale gas in North America
    possible global resources 4 times those of
    conventional gas.
  • The problem are not the resources but how to burn

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Electric energy production in 2010
  • China 4230 TWh
  • US 4120 TWh
  • Japan 955 TWh
  • Russia 907 TWh
  • India 720 TWh
  • Canada 565 TWh
  • France 550 TWh
  • Germany 490 TWh

Source WNA
2 countries 40 global production and in great
majority from coal
Last 10 years trend for electric energy
production from different sources
  • 2001 2010
  • Coal 38.7 41.7
  • Oil 7.4 64.7 4.2 66.6
  • Gas 18.6 20.7
  • Nuclear 17.1 13.4
  • Hydro 16.5 16.2
  • Biomasses 1.1 18.2 1.5 20
  • Other Renewables 0.6 2.3
  • Elaborations from IEA
  • Increase in of electricity from fossil fuels!
  • The increase of renewables does not overcome the
    decrease in of nuclear non CO2 sources loose
    market shares!

  • Fossil fuels contribute worldwide for more than
    80 to the energy needs and 66 to electricity
    production through their combustion they are the
    main cause of GHG emissions, detrimental to the
    future of our planet.
  • To reduce both the consumption of the limited
    fossil resources, cumulated in millions of years,
    and the CO2 emissions, there are clearly 2 main
  • rationalization/reduction of energy consumptions
  • use of carbon free energy sources

Shaping the trends between now and 2030Cut link
between growth, energy use and emissions
  • Meeting the energy challenges requires the world

Strong link between Energy Efficiency and
  • For reduction of energy consumptions, 2 main
    parallel ways
  • energy efficiency, doing the same with less same
    products and services but using less energy, with
    no impact on the standards of living.
  • technology driven but affected also by
    legislations, standards, life cycle culture.
  • energy conservation changes in standards of
    leaving, doing / having less with less.
  • socio/politically driven.

Global situation for nuclear
  • Over the last 10 years the world nuclear energy
    production has been practically constant at about
    2600 TWh but loosing market shares, with the so
    called nuclear renaissance happening at the
    public perception front, where the major concerns
    after Chernobyl changed little by little from
    large accident to questions around final waste
    disposal / costs / Nimby.
  • The impact of the incident at the Fukushima
    Daiichi nuclear power plant, which resulted from
    the devastating earthquake and subsequent tsunami
    on March 11th, 2011 will have wide ranging
    consequences on the global energy mix ,following
    emotional reactions of governments and companies
    consequential to public opinion

  • Clearly we must recognize that a nuclear accident
    has a great impact on people due a radiation you
    do not see, you do not know if it has hit you,
    you do not know if or when it will effect your
  • The Fukushima impact has been larger than that of
    the Chernobyl disaster Japan is in fact
    considered a high-tech country and a very well
    organized one.

  • 3) WEC Nuclear Task Force

  • As part of the World Energy Councils flagship
    Scenarios study a Nuclear Task Force has been set
    up to consider the impact of Fukushima incident.
  • Working documents have been drawn up to act as a
    catalyst for debates within the WEC Nuclear Task
  • The results of a perception survey conducted
    through our Member Committees has provided the
    basis for some initial discussion.
  • This will be taken forward by the World Energy
    Council to support the debate surrounding the
    future of nuclear as part of the energy mix and
    inform our Scenarios study.

World Energy Council Nuclear Task Force
  • Chair
  • Alessandro Clerici, Chair WEC Study Group Survey
    Energy Resources and Technologies
  • Members contributing to the chapters of report
  • Alexander Zafiriou, Political Affairs Corporate
    Communications, E.ON AG
  • Fernando Naredo, VP, Govt Affairs, Europe,
  • Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Senior Manager, General
    Economics Policy/Science, RWE
  • Helen El-Mallakh, Associate Director,
    International Research Centre for Energy and
    Economic Development (ICEED)
  • Ionut Purica, Senior Researcher, Romanian Academy
  • Laurent Joudon Director, Strategy Division EDF
  • Paulo Cesar Fernandez, Senior Electrical
    Engineer, Eletrobras (Brazil)
  • WEC Executive
  • Christoph Frei, Secretary General, WEC
  • Karl Rose, Director of Scenarios and Assessment,
  • Philip Thomas,Project Manager Scenarios, WEC

WEC - Nuclear Taskforce The Future of Nuclear
Contents Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2
Recommendations Chapter 3 Findings from the
WEC Nuclear Survey 2011 Chapter 4 Current
Status of Nuclear Chapter 5 Nuclear Technology
What has changed, what is better now Chapter 6
Pros and Cons Chapter 7 Externalities of
Electricity Generation Chapter 8 Public
Reaction to Nuclear Energy in Light of
Fukushima Chapter 9 Governance Chapter 10
WEC Nuclear Survey 2011 Chapter 11 Letter sent
by Pierre Gadonneix, Chairman of the World Energy
Council on March 31st, 2011 Chapter 12
Communiqués from G8 Meetings
The world Situation at March 10, 2011
  • 442 reactors in operation in 30 countries for
    375 GW.
  • 65 reactors under construction in 16 countries
    (27 in China) for 63 GW with the exclusion of
    the Japanese ABWR, all the others are PWR
  • Implementation of life extension up to 50 60
    years for old reactors in operation in many
    countries (cheap kWh, no CO2 emissions).
  • The Chernobyl effect (large accident) no more on
    top of oppositions, more concentrated on final
    waste disposal / costs of NPPs / NIMBY.
  • A nuclear renaissance due to
  • Volatile and expected high prices for fossil
  • Environmental concerns for CO2 emission and its
  • Security of supply
  • with 158 reactors planned and 326 proposed in 47
    countries (from WNA).
  • Cumulated shutdown reactors at end of 2010
  • 125 NRs for 37,800 MW of which 28 USA, 26 UK,
    19 Germany, 12 France.

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The post Fukushima
  • Out of the existing 30-plus countries that have
    nuclear energy programs, a few countries appear
    to have experienced the most profound public
    reactions and public policy changes Japan,
    Germany, Italy, and Switzerland. The most
    significant development has been in Germany where
    the government shut down the seven oldest nuclear
    power plants within a few days following the
    Fukushima event in addition to the one plant that
    was temporarily offline due to technical reasons.
    The German government has decided to keep these
    8 facilities closed permanently while it is
    accelerating its plans to phase out all of its
    remaining nuclear power plants stepwise by 2022
    (Germany has 26 electricity from nuclear).

Notes (1) Assessment of safety installations
(incorporating lessons learned) (2) expected
closure of the five nuclear power plant units
between 2019 and 2034 (after the end of
approximately 50 years of operating time) (3)
immediate shutdown of 8 nuclear installations
following the Fukushima event and phased-out
closure of remaining power plants as fast as
possible, independently from safety aspects (4)
possible partial modification of safety standards
or licensing procedures.
  • In regions and countries that have long held
    ambivalent to negative opinions on nuclear energy
    and its safety, the Fukushima accident will serve
    as an additional example of why to oppose it and
    local, national, and regional politics will
    prevail over the longer-time frame.
  • There will also be an increase of not in my
    backyard mentality, with the general public not
    wanting facilities/plants in their immediate
    vicinity or neighbourhood. In particular, these
    will be a larger issue for those living in areas
    vulnerable to natural disasters.
  • Possible increased cost of NPPs for increased
    security / safety rules, longer permission times
    and increased costs of risks insurances.

  • Those in favour of nuclear energy will call for
    improved safety procedures and plans and point
    out that the global community can learn from
    Fukushima this according to the history of
    nuclear power of constant improvement and
    technological development based on lessons
    learned both by vendors and owners that operate
  • This has been the inspiration to vendors for the
    so-called Generation III reactors, currently
    being built in several countries. These new
    reactors have typically a 60 year design life, a
    higher than 90 availability, a 12-24 month fuel
    cycle, a 10-7 probability of radiation releases
    with no external effect, a very low occupational
    radiation exposure , capability to withstand
    impact of large airplanes .

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WEC Member Committees Survey
  • A WEC member survey shows that most countries
    that have existing nuclear power installations
    believe that their own national nuclear authority
    is independent, resourced, transparent, and
    empowered with enforcement. But most respondents
    also answered with a lot of uncertainty with
    regard to the perception of other countries
    nuclear governance.
  • While there seems to be relatively high political
    support for the adoption and convergence of
    international safety regulations, there seems to
    be comparatively lower political support for the
    international enforcement of safety standards.
  • The response has been unanimous that the media
    affects the public discourse of nuclear energy
    the most.
  • The most pressing barrier for the future of
    nuclear has been identified as public perception,
    followed by lack of policy. Skills shortage was
    not deemed a major barrier.

  • When asked about the potential for substitution
    fuels, gas has emerged as the clear winner
    globally, (and to a less extent coal) with
    biomass being a strong contender. Wind and FV are
    only mentioned in countries with high potential.
  • Higher electricity prices have been deemed as the
    most direct implication of nuclear substitution,
    with energy security concerns and higher GHG
    emissions also highlighted by many countries.
  • The real looser could be not nuclear but final
    consumers and the environment
  • Regional analysis further shows that the
    perception of nuclear safety in developing
    countries has not changed significantly compared
    to developed countries.

Consequences for shutdown of NPPs
  • As an extreme and unrealistic case the shutdown
    of the present 2,600 TWh production worldwide
    from nuclear plants would mean
  • additional consumption of 700 MTEP/year of fossil
    fuels ( more than 25 of present global gas
  • additional emissions of 2 bt CO2 / per year.

Governance of nuclear risks
  • Risk profiles are reactor dependent and site
    dependent and therefore response capabilities
    will have to be different, which makes
    discussions about minimum safety standards
  • National boundaries are irrelevant when
    considering the impact of nuclear incidents and
    there is still room for improvement of
    international governance arrangements.
    Currently, nuclear governance rests with nation
    states, along with a limited level of oversight
    provided by the International Atomic Energy
    Agency (IAEA) and peer review arrangements such
    as WANO (World Association of Nuclear Operators).

  • In all cases the sovereignty of the state
    supersedes that of IAEA who with WANO can operate
    only through peer reviews/ consensus and
    technical support and access to a global library
    of operating experience.
  • Under the existing system of nuclear governance
    there is clear need to strengthen global
    regulation of nuclear energy.
  • In line with this train of thoughts, the
    following points were highlighted by the WEC
    nuclear task force.

Recommendations from WEC
  • Standards - National Nuclear Safety Agencies must
    adopt the IAEAs minimum safety operation,
    maintenance, and transparency standards,
    including site location parameters, and training
  • Verification - The IAEA should be empowered to
    work with each enhanced National Nuclear Safety
    Agency to verify adherence to the IAEAs minimum
    safety standards. Such verification should be
    publicly available to enhance transparency.
  • Design - The IAEA should produce an international
    accreditation standard for reactor design.
  • Finance - Funding mechanisms should be revised to
    ensure compliance.
  • Structure At national and international level
    there should be unbundle of responsibilities for
    promotion and safety to reduce the potential for
    conflicts of interest.
  • Given their accountability, under the United
    Nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency
    (IAEA) is the most practical organisation to
    achieve the required improvements in global
    governance for the nuclear energy sector.
    Governments, working through the United Nations,
    must therefore empower the IAEA.

The Pros and Cons still remain
  • PROS
  • No CO2 emissions
  • No volatile cost of kWh and very interesting
    value in medium/long time perspective due to
    expected high costs of fossil fuels and CO2
  • Independency from foreign fuels and security of
  • Possible contribution to elimination of nuclear
  • Wave of innovation fall-out on local industry
    during construction and technological
    qualification of companies
  • Volatile renewables need back up capacity and
    programmable production and nuclear is the only
    CO2 free source (nuclear and RES are not in
    competition but complementary)

The Pros and Cons still remain
  • CONS
  • Fear of large accidents, with global
    consequences due to human errors, natural
    events, terrorism
  • Acceptability and times for authorizations
  • Financing of merchant plants without government
  • Deposits of nuclear waste and plant
  • The future is of RES
  • Doubts on Uranium actual reserves

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  • Key variables that will affect global public
    perception of nuclear energy going forward
  • The ability of the Japanese government, the
    nuclear industry, and the Fukushima facility to
    deal with the aftermath.
  • The short- and long-term effects on the local
  • Another disaster.

Thank you for listening!
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