POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL
ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE
STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA

• Tamás Fleischer
• Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian
  Academy of Sciences
• http//www.vki.hu/tfleisch/ tfleisch_at_vki.hu

Danube Strongest Link to EU EU Danube
strategy and contributions from
Serbia International Conference organised by the
Friedrich Ebert Foundation Belgrad, May 7, 2010.
2
POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• Danube Strategy expectations and realities
• Danube and inland navigation myths and facts
• Conclusions

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• Hurrah, hurrah ! Here is the new possibility to
  get EU money !
• DG Regional Policy three NO-s
• No new legislation because of the Danube
  Strategy
• No new institution because of the Danube
  Strategy
• No extra money for the Danube
  Strategy

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• So what is the Danube Strategy at the moment?
• A promise to Germany to reinforce its economic
  positions in the area
• A promise to Austria on a better cooperation
  within its old Empire
• A promise to Slovakia to become a huge inland
  navigation hub between the Baltic Sea, the Black
  Sea and the North Sea
• A promise to Hungary to achieve a leading role in
  a well-paid but not really defined European
  cooperation
• A promise to Croatia and Serbia about an quick
  reception in the Central / European communities
• etc. etc. We can (or cant) imagine the range of
  dreams
• that is the Danube Strategy is a dream-collector
  at the moment, where all interested groups can
  hang their dreams on

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• The Danube valley is a macro-region of Europe
• What is a Macro-Region? "There is no standard
  definition for a macro-region .... The
  definition applied here, developed during the
  preparation of the European Union Strategy for
  the Baltic Sea Region, will be an area including
  territory from a number of different countries or
  regions associated with one or more common
  features or challenges. Source Macro-regional
  Strategies in the European Union - published on
  the Website of DG Regional Policy
• Macro region Co-operation of countries having a
  similar cohesion background (From an early paper
  of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry)

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• Positive approach
• (1) A good sample of different EU countries a
  longitudinal section of the oldest, the old, the
  newer and the future EU member countries
• (2) Symbolic meaning of the Danube Rhine as a
  symbol of the EC of the old EU founders Danube
  as a symbol of the extended EU gt

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RHINE AS A LINK WITHIN THE FOUNDERS OF THE EC
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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• Positive approach
• (1) A good sample of different EU countries a
  longitudinal section of the oldest, the old, the
  newer and the future EU member countries
• (2) Symbolic meaning of the Danube Rhine as a
  symbol of the EC of the old EU founders Danube
  as a symbol of the extended EU gt
• (3) CADSES (InterReg Cooperation Areas
  2000-2006) Central European, Adriatic, Danubian
  and South-Eastern European Space (cooperation
  area) gt

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Co-operation areas
INTERREG III.B (2000-2006)cooperation areas
CADSES Central European, Adriatic, Danubian and
South-Eastern European cooperation area. All
those areas were swept together, that were remote
and unimportant from the point of Brussels
Non-cooperating
Source INTERREG areas. http//europa.eu.int/com
m/regional_policy/interreg3/images/pdf/int3b_uk_a
4p.pdf
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Co-operation areas
INTERREG III.B (2000-2006) cooperation areas
CADSES Central European, Adriatic, Danubian
and South-Eastern European cooperation area.
Forrás INTERREG térségek.
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The Danube watershed basin

• The Danube watershed covers the landlocked
  regions of the CADSES area

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• Cheap and energy-effective inland navigation?
• (1) The myth of the energy effective inland
  navigation
• Its energy consumption per km/ton of transported
  goods is approximately 17 of that of road
  transport and 50 of rail transport. (Inland
  waterway transport What do we want to achieve ?
  European Communities, Mobility and Transport
  http//ec.europa.eu/transport/inland/index_en.htm
  )
• Average self-propelled vessels consume up to
  0.0130 litre per ton-km, whereas modern vessels
  can achieve gas oil consumption as low as 0.0044
  litre per ton-km. Compared to rail (0.0095 l/tkm)
  or road transport (0.0292 l/tkm), average fuel
  consumption for inland navigation (0.0083 l/tkm)
  is relatively low. (Opening your door to inland
  waterway transport in Europe. http//www.naiades.i
  nfo/faq )

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ENERGY USE OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODES (THEORY)
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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• the weighted average CO2-intensity for
  rail-freight operations in the UK is 14.5 gms per
  tonne-km. This estimate appears relatively low by
  comparison with the results of previous studies
  in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. For example,
  the Rail Emissions Model constructed by AEA
  Technology (2001) for the SRA used a ratio of 20
  gm of CO2 per tonne-km for rail-freight. The
  TREMOVE study, under-taken by the University of
  Leuven, assigns a value of 33 gm of CO2 per
  tonne-km for UK rail-freight operations. Four
  other recent studies by NTM (2005), WRI-WBCSD
  (2003), INFRAS (2004) and IFEU (2005) suggest
  average ratios for European rail-freight
  operations of, respectively, 17, 30, 38 and 18
  (electric) / 35 (diesel) gms / tonne-km. The
  movement of freight on inland waterways is also
  relatively energy efficient, generating around
  30-40 gm of CO2 per tonne-km (Dings and Dijkstra,
  1997, INFRAS/WWW, 2004). (McKinnon, Alan (2007)
  CO2 Emissions from Freight Transport in the UK.
  Report prepared for the Climate Change Working
  Group of the Commission for Inte-grated
  Transport. Logistics Research Centre, Heriot-Watt
  University, Edinburgh 57 p. http//cfit.independe
  nt.gov.uk/pubs/2007/climatechange/pdf/2007climatec
  hange-freight.pdf )

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ENERGY USE OF DIFFERENT TRANSPORT MODES
(PRACTICE)
McKinnon, Alan (2007) CO2 Emissions from Freight
Transport in the UK. Report prepared for the
Climate Change Working Group of the Commission
for Integrated Transport. Logistics Research
Centre, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh 57 p.
http//cfit.independent.gov.uk/pubs/2007/climatech
ange/pdf/2007climatechange-freight.pdf
THE MESSAGE RAIL AND INLAND WATERWAYS BOTH
ARE GOOD ENOUGH
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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• (2) Cheap inland navigation
• Even if the inland navigation is cheap, the
  argument, that it makes the producer more
  competitive because of the bigger export
  action-radius and the cheaper import is
  dubious. The export and the import of the
  producer is really cheaper but at the other end
  of the route for the remote other producer the
  circumstances are similarly better. The relative
  price between the two producer not necessarily
  has changed, it depends on other factors which of
  them is more competitive relative to each other.
• To be more correct the external competitiveness
  of the linked area can be better, because of the
  cheaper internal transport, better internal
  links. It is another question that within the
  area who is the winner of this extra
  competitiveness this depends on other factors
  and not on the transport price within the region.

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INLAND NAVIGATION 2006
Country Inland navigation Country Inland navigation
EU-27 5,6 France 3,4
EU-15 6,5 Hungary 4,5
Austria 3,0 Netherlands 32,3
Belgium 14,7 Poland 0,2
Bulgaria 3,0 Romania 10,0
Bohemia 0,1 Slovakia (4,0 in 2001) 0,3
Finland 0,2 Germany 12,8

• Share of the inland navigation, the total goods
  transport of the given country is always 100
  ton/km Source Eurostat 2007.

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Map Waterways Europe http//www.inlandnavigatio
n.org
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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC
AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE STRATEGY

• The two main international inland waterways in
  Western Europe and South-Eastern Europe are the
  Rhine and the Danube where around 208 and 73
  million tonnes of goods were carried in 2008
  respectively. On the Rhine, these goods are
  carried by some 5,500 self-propelled cargo
  vessels, around 1,000 tankers and 1,100 pushed
  barges. On the Danube, around 2,600 dry and
  around 330 tank barges are in operation together
  with around 200 self-propelled vessels (UNECE
  Inland Transport Committee Policy Segment
  Sustainable Transport Development The Case of
  Inland Water Transport 23 February 2010 Palais
  des Nations Panel Discussion Can Inland Water
  Transport become Competitive and an Integral Part
  of Global Supply Chains? Note by the UNECE
  secretariat http//www.unece.org/trans/events/do
  cs/inlandtransport_2010_Background_Document.pdf )

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Two types of seaports
TEN-T EU-25 sea- and sea/inland ports Seaports,
category class A http//ec.europa.eu/ten/transpo
rt/maps/doc/schema/seaports/2003_accession_seaport
s_cat_a_eu25.pdf
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Hamburg, horn-mouth of the river
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Constanta and the Danube delta mouth
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Constanta and theDanubeBlack Sea Canal
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Traffic 1991
Traffic of the Rhine water-system in 1991
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Conclusion Is inland navigation rentable ?

• Yes,
• The price pro tonne/km is cheap ifthe
  river-bed, the port, the fleet, the personnel,
  the goods are all given
• River-bed different profile at the Rhine and
  the Danube
• Fleet different because of the different profile
• Goods bulk materials one could get it from
  the rail ?
• Personnel (depends on countries)
• Ports needs bigger development
• the western sample the Rhine model NL 33
  D, B 13-15 three countries, with special
  sea links, river mouths, built canal network
  
• The possibilities to lift the time-window of the
  navigability of the
  Danube from 60 to 82
• Who would pay it ? And who would become more
  competitive ?

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The Danube is navigable !
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Conclusion Is the Danube-valley cooperation
rentable ?

• Yes !
• We cant build our future without a strong
  cooperation
• but we have to get rid of those prefabricated
  projects built on dreams and myths
• and form a common system of objectives, with
  integration of all countries touched
• and also with the integration of all sustainable
  transport modes instead of playing a 0-sum game
  between them
• That can be a good objective for a Danube
  Strategy

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POSSIBILITIES AND MYTHS ON THE POTENTIAL
ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT EFFECTS OF THE DANUBE
STRATEGY, WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO SERBIA

• Tamás Fleischer
• Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian
  Academy of Sciences
• http//www.vki.hu/tfleisch/ tfleisch_at_vki.hu

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION !
Danube Strongest Link to EU EU Danube
strategy and contributions from
Serbia International Conference organised by the
Friedrich Ebert Foundation Belgrad, May 7, 2010.