Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada

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Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic
Indices in Eastern Canada
Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma Agriculture and
Agri-Food Canada Ottawa
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CGCM1 Mean Temperature ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s

• Source Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios
  (CCIS) Group

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CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s
Source Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios
(CCIS) Group
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GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables (e.g.
Temperature, Precipitation)

• How will these changes affect Agro-climatic
  indices?
• What are the potential impacts on crop
  production?

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Atlantic Canada
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Crop Heat Units (CHU)
Average Crop Heat Units
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Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDD)
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Water Deficit
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Potential ACI changes
Agro-climatic index Increase under Climate Change
CHU 500-700 units
EGDD 400 units
Water Deficit 25-50 mm
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Implications for Atlantic Canada

• Significant potential for Large-scale
• expansion in corn and soybean areas
• Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals
  (e.g. barley)

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Production scenario
Yield (t/ha) Area (ha) Production (000 tonnes)
Corn Present 5.6 2,300 13
Corn 2040-69 7.0 30,000 210
Soybeans Present 2.3 3,500 8
Soybeans 2040-69 3.0 20,000 60
Barley Present 3.0 55,000 165
Barley 2040-69 3.15 25,000 79
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Quebec Ontario
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Potential ACI changes
Agro-climatic Index Current Under Climate Change
CHU 3400-3700 gt5200
GDD 1750-2250 2750-3500
GSS Early/Mid April Early/Late March
GSE Late Oct/Mid Nov Mid/Late Nov
GSL 180-225 days 210-270 days
Water Deficit Little change expected Little change expected
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Implications for Quebec Ontario

• Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for
  grain corn and soybean production will become
  suitable for these crops.
• Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and
  soybean production will be suited for
  longer-season hybrids, with potentially higher
  yields

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Some Considerations

• These findings are based on comparisons of
  current 30-year climate normals (averages) with
  those from an equivalent future 30-year period
• Significant changes in variability and extreme
  events are anticipated under climate change

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Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over
Canada
(Source CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000)
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Summary

• Likely consequences of climate change on
  agriculture in Eastern Canada
• Significant increases in areas under corn and
  soybean in Atlantic Canada.
• Significant increase in yields of corn and
  soybean in Quebec and Ontario
• Expected increases in variability and extreme
  events could have significant impact on seasonal
  variability and risks to production