Elections and Campaigns

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Elections and Campaigns

• What are the Constitutional requirements for
  elections?
• Only the House was directly elected by the
  people.
• Senators were selected by State Legislatures.
• The President was selected by the Electoral
  College.
• Members of the judiciary were nominated by the
  President and confirmed by the Senate.

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Presidential Elections

• The constitutional rules governing the selection
  of the president reflect three fundamental themes
  that guided the Framers thinking.
• The states were given a broad discretion on key
  matters regarding presidential elections.
• The Framers designed the presidency with George
  Washington in mind and really did not spell out
  in great detail all aspects of the presidency
• The presidency was envisioned as an office that
  would be above party politics

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The Electoral College

• The means by which the president of the United
  States is elected was born of compromise between
  the interests of the states and the interests of
  the people.
• The formal selection of the president is in the
  hands of electors, who collectively constitute
  the Electoral College.
• Electors are individuals who actually serve in
  the Electoral College, casting votes for
  president.
• The Electoral College is the 538 presidential
  electors who meet every four years to cast the
  electoral votes for president and vice president
  of the United States.

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The Make-up of the Electoral College

• The selection of electors was originally the
  responsibility of state legislatures, whose
  members were, for the most part, elected by the
  people.
• The idea was that the state legislatures would
  serve as gatekeepers against rash or ignorant
  voters.
• Today, the people of each state, not the members
  of state legislatures, choose the electors.

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How the Electoral College Works

• The actual electors are selected in a variety of
  ways in the fifty states.
• Each party lines up electors for its candidate
  prior to the election.
• Each state receives a number of electoral votes
  equal to the number of senators and members of
  the House of Representatives.
• The minimum number is three, because every state
  has at least one House member and two senators.

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How the Electoral College Works continued

• All  the electoral votes in a state are allocated
  to the candidate who finishes first in the
  voting.
• Winner-take-all system is where whoever wins the
  most votes in an election wins the election.
• Nebraska and Maine allocate votes by
  congressional district and so can split their
  electoral votes.
• To win the presidency, a candidate needs to win a
  majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes.
• If no candidate wins a majority in the Electoral
  College, the decision for President is made in
  the House while the Vice President is selected in
  the Senate.

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How the Electoral College Works
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Problems with the Electoral College

• The Electoral College has never worked as the
  Framers envisionedan institution that would
  allow for a group of independent decision makers
  to get together in the many states and deliberate
  over who would make the best president.
• 12th Amendment

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Problems with the Electoral College
Following passage of the Twelfth
Amendment, presidential and vice presidential
candidates campaigned on the same ticket. This
campaign poster from the 1872 election shows
President Ulysses S. Grant and his
vice presidential candidate using their humble
beginnings to appeal to workingmen.
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Problems with EC continued

• Another source of problems in the system  was
  that states were free to set their own rules for
  selecting electors.  
• Because of this odd hodgepodge of frequently
  changing rules, the presidential contest in the
  early nineteenth century was very different from
  the campaigns of today.
• Now states hold elections all on the same daythe
  first Tuesday after the first Monday in
  Novemberand electors then meet in December to
  choose the next president.

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Electoral College Reform

• The biggest problem with the Electoral College
  occurs when winning the nations popular vote
  does not automatically translate into a win in
  the Electoral College.
• This actually happened in the 1824, 1876, 1888,
  and 2000 presidential elections.
• If a democracy rests on the idea of majority,
  then four presidential elections (about 10
  percent) have been undemocratic.

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Electoral College Reform
The 1876 election was contested, and its
outcome determined by an electoral commission.
Some feared public disturbances at
the inauguration, so Rutherford B. Hayes, who had
won the Electoral College but not the popular
vote, took the oath of office privately in the
White House. The formal ceremony at the Capitol,
two days later, was peaceful.
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Why Not Do Away With the Electoral College?

• Some may wonder why the country does not just
  change the rules to select the president through
  the popular vote.
• The Electoral College does encourage candidates
  to secure support in all corners of the country.
• Eliminating the Electoral College would decrease
  the role of the states.
• Doing away with the Electoral College would
  require a constitutional amendment.

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The 2000 Election
The 2000 Florida recount was fraught with
difficulty, and a series of court cases regarding
the election culminated in a Supreme Court
decision on December 12 that halted the recount
and essentially made George W. Bush the winner of
the election.
Election workers in Miami manually recount votes
while representatives of both parties observe.
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The 2000 Election

• Gore received about 600,000 more votes than
  Bushjust a .5 percentage point difference (48.4
  percent to 47.9 percent).
• The state of Florida was too close to call (Bush
  led Florida by 537 votes out of 5.8 million votes
  casta .0001 percent difference).

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Congressional Elections

• The constitutional guidelines for congressional
  elections again reflect the compromise between
  the interests of states and the interests of the
  people.
• Each state has two senators, regardless of size.
• House members are allotted based on proportional
  representation.

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Senate Elections

• Like the choice of electors, the Constitution
  originally gave the choice of senators to state
  legislatures.
• 17th Amendment
• Senate elections are staggered ensuring the
  Senate is insulated from large shifts in public
  sentiment.

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House Elections

• In contrast to the Senate, the entire House of
  Representatives is up for election every two
  years.
• Also in contrast to the Senate, House members
  have always been elected directly by the people.

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Apportionment

• The Constitution requires that representatives be
  apportioned, within each state, according to
  population, which is counted every ten years in a
  census.
• Originally each member was to represent no more
  than 30,000 people.
• As the population grew, the House of
  Representatives grew as well, from 65 members in
  1789, to 237 members in 1857. It continued to
  grow until 1911 and was capped at 435 in 1929.

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Redistricting

• State legislatures are responsible for drawing
  the district lines, in a process known as
  redistricting.
• Although citizens are not required to disclose
  party affiliation in the census, past voting
  patterns give parties a strong indication of
  where they have the advantage.
• The politicization of drawing districts is called
  gerrymandering.

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Gerrymandering
The term gerrymander comes from this
salamander-shaped district in Massachusetts, which
Governor Elbridge Gerry approved following the
census of 1810. Political rivals denounced the
blatant seeking of political advantage that had
produced such an oddly shaped congressional
district, and the taunt stuck, passing into
common usage in politics.
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Initiatives and Referenda

• In some states, voters can cast ballots on
  specific policies through initiatives and
  referenda.
• Initiative is the process by which citizens place
  proposed laws on the ballot for public approval.
• Referenda are the processes by which public
  approval is required before states can pass laws.

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The Presidential Campaign

• Evolution of the modern campaign.
• George Washington worried that a chief executive
  could morph into a monarch, so he deliberately
  avoided doing anything to advance his candidacy,
  let others work on his behalf.
• Front Porch Campaign Strategy
• Nineteenth-century campaign style, in which the
  candidate stays home and does not actively
  campaign

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Modern Campaigns

• By the early twentieth century, presidential
  contenders began to campaign actively, too, and
  campaigning started earlier and earlier.
• Jockeying for position.
• Opening stages of the presidential campaign when
  candidates compete for financial support and
  credibility as a viable candidate for the partys
  nomination.
• Permanent Campaign
• Charge that presidents and members of Congress
  focus more on winning the next election than on
  governing.

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The Decision to Run

• Potential candidates must ask themselves many
  difficult  questions
• How will a presidential campaign affect my
  family?
• Will my indiscretions in college come back to
  haunt me?
• Can I build a team of advisers that will allow me
  to win the presidency?
• Can I raise enough money to be competitive?

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The Decision continued

• Who else might run for the office?
• What do I want to accomplish if elected?
• Am I prepared to campaign eighteen hours a day
  for nearly two years straight?
• Am I capable of handling the pressure that comes
  with being in the Oval Office?
• Can I win?
• What happens if I lose?

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The Road to the White House
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The Invisible Primary

• Once a candidate decides to run for president, he
  or she enters what is has been called the
  invisible primary.
• Period just before the primaries begin during
  which candidates attempt to capture party support
  and media coverage.
• Candidates who can get attention from the news
  media can raise more money and secure more
  endorsements from party leaders.
• Incumbent presidents usually win their partys
  nomination for a second term.

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Open Seat Elections

• In contests in which there was no incumbent, the
  party insider won all but one time.
• Candidates with deep ties to party leaders and
  views that comport well with the political
  viewpoints of the party leadership.

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Caucuses and Primaries

• To win a partys nomination, candidates must
  secure a majority of delegates to the national
  party conventions.
• About 70 percent of the states use some form of
  primary election, an election in which citizens
  go to the polling booths and vote for their
  favorite party candidates.
• The other 30 percent use caucuses, which are
  something like a town meeting.
• The Iowa caucus requires that people attend a
  meeting of about two hours in which they try to
  convince those who are undecided to join their
  candidates group.
• Characterized by low voter turnout.

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The National Convention

• Following the primary season, each party meets in
  a national convention.
• The highlight of the convention is the acceptance
  speech, in which the partys nominee has a chance
  to speak directly to the nation, laying out
  his/her vision for the country.
• Also in front of the cameras, the party platform
  is formally adopted, laying out its plan for
  government.
• Document that lays out a partys core beliefs and
  policy proposals for each presidential election.

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The Presidential Debates

• Presidential debates are the official debates
  between presidential nominees, televised and
  highly important to the campaign.
• In 2008, more than 50 million people watched
  Obama  and McCain address the issues in a debate
  format.  
• Today these events, as well as a vice
  presidential debate, are managed by the
  nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential
  Debates, which was established in 1987.

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The Presidential Debates
The stakes in presidential debates are huge. In
2008 John McCain needed to score points against
Barack Obama in order to close in on Obamas
lead, but was never able to do so.
Here McCain listens to Obama talk to the audience
in a town hallstyle debate at Belmont University
in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 7, 2008.
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Fundraising and Money

• No one could run for president without funding.
• Matching funds (public financing)
• The rules for the public financing of
  presidential nomination campaigns are complicated
  and are designed to ensure candidates are serious
  contenders before receiving them.
• Must raise at least 5,000 in twenty states,
  comprised of donations that are less than 500
  each.
• A candidate who does not get at least 10 percent
  of the vote in two consecutive primaries loses
  eligibility.

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Financing continued

• Increasingly, candidates have decided to forego
  matching funds in their quest for the nomination.
  
• One reason is to be able to spend money in states
  important to the contest without regard to FEC
  limits
• They believe they can raise (and spend) more
  money if they do not accept federal matching
  funds.
• During the 2008 presidential campaign, McCain did
  use public funds, receiving about 80 million
  from the government, but Obama opted out. He
  spent 730 million, breaking all previous
  fundraising records. McCain spent 333 million
  during that same period.

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Financing continued
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Swing States

• Even though partisanship is extremely high, swing
  voters still existthose who do not fall into
  either the Republican or Democratic campand so
  do swing states, those that might vote either
  Democratic or Republican in a particular
  election.
• But both McCain and Obama campaigned hard in
  Pennsylvaniaa battleground state that each
  thought they had a chance to win. Other key
  battleground states in 2008 were Florida, Ohio,
  North Carolina, and Virginia.
• Nearly 90 percent of campaign visits were to
  battleground states.

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Swing States
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Micro-targeting

• Since the 1960s, when consumer behavior became a
  popular field of study, direct marketers have
  refined the practice of gathering detailed
  information on different cross-sections of
  consumers to sell their products.
• Gathering detailed information on cross-sections
  of the electorate to track potential supporters
  and tailor political messages for them also
  called narrowcasting.

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Campaign Issues

• Campaigns are very much shaped by issues.
• For greater understanding of how issues influence
  campaigns, political scientists have drawn a
  distinction between valence issues and position
  issues.
• Valence issues are noncontroversial or widely
  supported campaign issues that are unlikely to
  differentiate among candidates.
• About three-quarters of their TV ads highlight
  valence issues.
• Position issues are political issues that offer
  specific choices in policy and often
  differentiate candidates views and plans of
  action.

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Wedge Issues

• Because campaigns are competitive struggles for
  votes, candidates look for ways to secure extra
  votes while maintaining existing support.
• One strategy is to use a wedge issue that has the
  potential to break up the oppositions coalition.
  Wedges usually involve controversial policy
  concerns, such as abortion or gay marriage, which
  divide people rather than build consensus.

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Negativity

• Candidates are very good at telling voters why
  they should vote for them, but they are also good
  at telling the public why they should not vote
  for their opponents.
• One of the most famous negative ads was the
  Daisy spot, aired only once by President Lyndon
  Johnson (196369) in his 1964 campaign against
  the Republican nominee, Barry Goldwater. The
  implication was that Senator Goldwater, if
  president, would start a nuclear war.
• In the 2008 campaign, about two-thirds of all
  statements were negative.

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Negativity in Presidential Campaigns
The Daisy spot is perhaps the most famous
negative ad in American history. It was aired
only once by President Lyndon Johnson in the 1964
campaign, and it never explicitly mentioned his
opponent, Senator Barry Goldwater. But
Goldwater had made statements about the possible
use of nuclear weapons, and they made the meaning
of this ad clear and emotionally resonant.
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Share of Negativity in Presidential Campaigns
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Prediction Models

• Political scientists have developed prediction
  models that yield specific estimates of the vote
  share in presidential elections.
• The best prediction models use some combination
  of the following key structural factors
• The economy. What is the condition of the
  economy? A strong economy leads voters to support
  the incumbent party. A struggling economy gives
  an edge to the challenger.
• Presidential popularity. How popular is the
  sitting president? An unpopular president will
  hurt the chances for his partys candidate.
• The incumbent partys time in office. How long
  has the incumbent party controlled the
  presidency? The American public has showed a
  consistent preference to support change.

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Congressional Campaigns

• Nearly all congressional campaigns start with a
  primary election at which the partys official
  candidate is selected.
• The general election then follows.
• These campaigns occur every two years.
• In the Senate, one-third of all seats are
  contested every two years.
• For the House of Representatives, every member
  faces reelection every two years.

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The Decision to Run

• Those who chose to run for Congress are usually
  visible residents of their district or state.
  Often they already hold a local or state-level
  elected office.
• Both incumbentsthose already holding the
  officeand challengers generally begin
  campaigning nearly two years before Election Day.
  
• The contests that occur in between the four-year
  presidential election cycles are called midterm
  elections.

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Reelection Rates of Incumbents in Congress
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Primaries

• Party primaries nearly always determine which
  candidate will gain the party endorsement for a
  House or Senate seat.
• To win the primary election, a candidate
  generally shapes campaign messages to please core
  party members in the district or state.

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The Fall Campaign

• Following the primaries, the two winning
  candidates often revise their campaign message to
  attract more moderate voters.
• To win the general election, candidates usually
  need votes from party members as well as
  Independents and members of the opposing party.
• The geographic size of a congressional district
  or state can affect campaign strategy.

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Issues in Congressional Campaigns

• Congressional elections do not draw as much
  attention as presidential elections , but they
  involve many of the same issues.
• Money and fundraising are concerns, and again the
  FEC sets limits.
• If times are good, the party in power is
  rewarded.

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Fundraising and Money

• Federal campaign finance laws set the same limits
  on congressional elections as on presidential
  elections.
• An individual can contribute up to 2,400 to a
  candidate for the primary election in 2010, and
  the same amount for the general election.
• Individuals can contribute to candidates in
  different races, up to a total of 45,600 for
  primaries and the same amount for general
  election campaigns.
• Candidates also raise money from PACs, which are
  limited to donating 5,000 for a primary
  election, and 5,000 for a general election, to a
  single candidate.

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The Role of Political Parties

• Of the other sources of financial support
  available to candidates, the most important is
  the political party.
• Parties are forbidden by campaign finance laws
  from actively coordinating a specific
  individuals congressional campaign.
• Local parties can engage in general activities,
  such as voter registration drives, partisan
  rallies, and get-out-the-vote efforts.
• National parties can pay for campaign training
  for candidates and their staffs, hold general
  party fundraisers, and buy campaign
  advertisements that attack the opposing candidate
  so long as they do not mention their partys
  candidate.

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The Role of Political Parties continued

• Both the Democratic and Republican parties have
  congressional campaign organizations designed to
  recruit and support candidates for the House and
  Senate.
• Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and
  Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
• National Republican Congressional Committee and
  National Republican Senatorial Committee.

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Incumbency Advantage
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Incumbency Disadvantage

• Being an incumbent can be a disadvantage,
  however, if ones party has fallen out of favor
  with the voters.
• Such was the case in 1994 and 2006, where large
  numbers of incumbents of the party in power lost
  their seats in the House and Senate, and party
  control changed hands as a result.
• Overall, though, the number of elections in which
  one party literally sweeps the other out of
  office is small.

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Relative Lack of Interest

• Voting rates in congressional elections,
  particularly in midterm elections, are always
  lower than in presidential elections.
• As a result, voting is driven largely by two
  major forces partisanship and incumbency .
• Voters follow party identification and vote for
  their partys candidates.
• There is also the effect of presidential
  coattailsthat is, a popular president running
  for reelection brings additional party candidates
  into office.

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Campaign Finance Laws

• The 1971, the Federal Election Campaign Act
  (FECA) transformed how campaigns are conducted
  and monitored, as it requires candidates,
  political parties, and political action
  committees (PACs) to disclose their campaign
  financial records.
• In 1974, Congress amended the law to set strict
  limits on how much money could be contributed by
  individuals, parties, and PACs to campaigns and,
  more important, created the Federal Election
  Commission as an independent agency to closely
  monitor campaign finance.
• Buckley v. Valeo (1976)

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Campaign Finance Laws continued

• In 2002, the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act
  (BCRA) raised the legal contribution allowances
  for campaigns prohibited political parties from
  accepting and spending unlimited amounts of money
  directly on campaigns restricted the ability of
  interest groups to run campaign ads without fully
  identifying themselves and prohibited them from
  running these ads within thirty days of a
  primary, and sixty days of the general election.
• Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission
  (2010)

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Electoral Mandates

• Winning candidates like to claim that their
  election constitutes a mandate, a clear signal
  from the public about the policies government
  should pursue.
• The bigger a candidates win, the stronger the
  belief in a mandate.
• Claiming a mandate presupposes that the
  candidates policies were sufficiently distinct
  or that voters decisions can be read as a real
  choice between two different plans for federal
  policies.

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Campaign Promises

• One study has concluded that about 66 percent of
  campaign promises have been enacted, only about
  10 percent were ignored, and the remaining 20
  percent or so were blocked in Congress.
• Perhaps the most famous broken promise occurred
  in 1991, when President George H. W. Bush agreed
  to a tax increase as part of a budget deal with
  congressional Democrats. In his acceptance speech
  at the 1988 Republican National Convention, Bush
  had pledged he would not raise taxes Read my
  lips, no new taxes.

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Obamas Campaign Promises Kept and Broken
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Focus Questions

• In what ways do elections encourage
  accountability and responsiveness in government?
• How does citizen equality work, or not work, in
  elections and campaigns? Are elections and
  campaigns fair?
• How well do campaigns work to inform the public
  so to allow voters to hold candidates
  accountable?
• Do laws that regulate the financing of campaigns
  impede or advance equality and accountability in
  elections?
• In what ways are elections and campaigns gateways
  to American democracy? What are the gates?