The Future of Technology Presentation of the 2003 IEEE Fellows Technology Survey

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School on Radio Use for Information and
Communication Technology The Abdus Salam
International Centre for Theoretical Physics ICTP
Trieste (Italy) 3 - 21 February 2003
The Future of TechnologyPresentation of the 2003
IEEE Fellows Technology Survey
Prof. R. Struzak ryszard.struzak_at_bluewin.ch
These notes are for internal use only
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Many predictions made in the past have proved to
be dramatically wrong ... ...even when made by
experts with impeccable credentials...
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Famous Quotations
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Airplane

• Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible
• Lord Kelvin famous physicists, 1897
• 1903 Wright traveled 37 m
• today booming industry

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Telephone (1)

• Well informed people know it is impossible to
  transmit voice over wires and that, were it
  possible to do so, the thing would be of no
  practical value
• Boston Post editorial, 1865
• 1896 Bell got the first patent
• today booming industry

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Telephone (2)

• This telephone has too many shortcomings to be
  seriously considered as a means of
  communications
• Western Union (leading telegraph company), an
  internal memo, 1896
• 1896 Bell got the first patent
• 1998 gt750 M telephone lines, or 13 lines / 100
  inhabitants world average (source ITU World
  Telecommunication Development Report 1998)

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Computers (in general)

• I think theres a world market for, maybe, 5
  computers
• Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
• 1998 gt750 M telephone lines, or 13 lines / 100
  inhabitants world average (source ITU World
  Telecommunication Development Report 1998)

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Personal computers (1)

• I didnt see anything useful in building home
  computers
• Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, rejecting a
  1970s proposal for a home computer

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Personal computers (2)

• There is no reason for any individual to have a
  computer in their home
• Ken Olsen, Founder President of Digital
  Equipment Corporation, 1977
• 1998 234 M PCs, or 4 PCs / 100 inhabitants
  world average (source ITU World
  Telecommunication Development Report 1998)

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Cinema

• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?
• H.M. Warner, famous film maker), 1927
• 1927 first talking picture
• today booming industry

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Radio

• Radio has no future
• Lord Kelvin, famous physicists, 1897
• 1896 Marconi - 1st transmission at 1.6 km
  distance

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Prediction is difficult - especially of the
future

• - Storm Petersen, Danish humorist

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• Every year a number of young people enter the
  University, each carrying a small portion of
  knowledge.
• These portions are accumulated there during the
  years of studying.
• That is the reason why the University became the
  center of knowledge.
• After Bernard Shaw

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• When a distinguished but elderly scientist states
  that something is possible he is almost certainly
  right. When he states that something is
  impossible, he is very probably wrong.
• Clarke's First Law

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• The only way of discovering the limits of the
  possible is by venturing a little way past them
  into the impossible.
• Clarke's Second Law

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• Any sufficiently advanced technology is
  indistinguishable from magic.
• Clarke's Third Law
• Any technology distinguishable from magic is
  insufficiently advanced.
• Gregory Benford's Corollary to Clarke's Third
  law