The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th Century

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The Evolution of Systems Thinking in the 20th
Century
Ao Univ. Prof. Dr. Günther Ossimitz University of
Klagenfurt, Austria

• 100th Birthday Anniversary of Ludwig von
  Bertalanffy
• Technical University of Vienna, 2. Nov. 2001

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My Habilitation work Development of Systems
Thinking
Main issues - How can students learn Systems
Thinking (ST)? - How can System Dynamics
modelling help to develop ST - How can ST
abilities be empirically measured?

• Ch 1 Approaches towards Systems Thinking in the
  Literature
• Ch 2 What is Systems Thinking? - a Definition
• Ch 3 Systems Thinking / System Dynamics in Math
  Education
• Ch 4 Empirical Studies about the Development of
  Systems Thinking
• Ch 5 The Study Development of Systems Thinking

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Some Systems Thinking Approaches

• Qualitative Approaches
• Frederic Vester (Biocybernetics)
• Systemic Management e.g. Peter Gomez/ Gilbert
  Probst
• Peter Senge The Fifth Discipline ST and
  Organizational Learning
• Cognitive Psychology - Dietrich Dörner The
  Logic of Failure
• System Dynamics-Approach (quantitative)
• Jay Forrester (MIT) introduces SD at about 1960
• Barry Richmond sells SD Software STELLA under
  systems thinking

Each of these approaches is connected with
Education!
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Systems Thinking Approaches - Overview
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What is Systems Thinking?

• Literature ST is very fundamental and important
• e.g. George Klir Facets of Systems Science
  (1991, p19)
• "Systems movement emerged from three principal
  roots mathematics, computer technology and a
  host of ideas that are well captured by the
  general term systems thinking."
• This is the only appearance of the term "systems
  thinking" in Klir's great book!
• The same applies to a number of other important
  works of systems literature.
• Almost no serious definition of ST in systems
  literature!

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My Definition of Systems Thinking
Four interelated dimensions

• Dynamical Dim. - Thinking in dynamical processes
  beyond snapshot-thinking understanding stocks
  vs. flows, delays, oscillations...
• Model Dim. - Thinking in Models /Awareness of
  Systems modeling assumptions, model-reality
  qualitative vs. quantitative models
• Feedback Dim. - Thinking in loops and networks
  interrelated structures, indirect effects,
  feedback loops, networks of interrelations
• Pragmatical Dim. - Steering of Systems finding
  the "leverage point", counterintuitive behavior,
  proper intensity and timing of actions.

My Definition integrates different views of
Systems Thinking!
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Dynamical Thinking Discerning stocks and flows
Arrivals and Departures in a Hotel Dec 18 - Jan
10
Arr Dep
When was the number of Hotel guests a maximum?
Give your answer just by a quick glimpse at the
diagram without any tedious calculations!
Intersection Dec 27-Dec 28
Correct lt 20
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Thinking in Models Heroin Market 1
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Price Elasticity of Heroin
10 kg Heroin available 1000 ATS/kg 10 Mio S
Revenue
9 kg Heroin available 2000 ATS/kg 18 Mio S
Revenue !
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Thinking in Models Heroin Market 2
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Lessons from the Heroin Models

• Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) are useful tools!
• CLDs help to discuss a situation. Different
  viewpoints can be clarified and checked more
  easily.
• The same situation can be modeled in different
  ways.
• CLDs allow a reflection of model assumptions.
• Small differences in a model might have serious
  consequences.
• What appears to be the solution at first sight,
  might (via feedback) make the problem even more
  severe!

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Feedback Thought The Arms Race(Peter Senge The
Fifth Discipline)

Armation A

A feels endagered
B feels endangered

Armation B

Escalating ("positive") feedback loop
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The result of the Arms Race
Total Amount of Armation in Arms race
Time (years)
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George Richardson Two threads of Feedback
Thought
George Richardson (1991) Feedback Thought in
Social Science and Systems Theory (p. 93)
- Servomechanisms Thread - Cybernetics Thread
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George Richardson's Message

• Feedback is a common fundamental idea in all
  systems approaches
• The feedback structure is often hidden in
  peculiar notations
• Explicit counsciousness of feedback in the 20th
  century
• Many roots of feedback thinking
• Biology-math. Models (Verhulst, Lotka, Volterra)
• Econometrics (Tinbergen, Samuelson, Hicks)
• Engineering (Watt, Maxwell, Lyapunov)
• Social Sciences (Hume, Smith, Ricardo, Hegel,
  Marx, Bateson, Keynes, Lewin)
• Biology-Homeostasis (Hippocrates, Cannon,
  Rosenblueth)
• Logic (Epimenides, Boole, Cantor, Russell,
  Whitehead, Carnap, Goedel)
• Two main Feedback Threads in the 20th Century
• Cybernetics Thread (Ludwig von Bertalanffy et al)
• Servomechanisms Thread

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The Cybernetics Thread

• Feedback was seen as an influence from output
  back to input.
• Feedback concept just for negative loops, no
  escalating loops
• Feedback is seen as homeostasis and control
• stability and instability of negative feedback
  systems
• Feedback analyses are usually verbal rather than
  mathematical or pictorial
• Feedback was associated with information
  transmittion, communication networks, information
  theory
• background idea the ceration of intelligent
  machines

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The Servomechanism Thread

• Formal dynamic feedback models employed
• Basic idea Behavior depends upon feedback
  structure
• Feedback loops are seen as intrinsic part of real
  system
• positive and negative loops were present
• counterintuitive behavior of systems
  well-intented policies lead to disaster
• Policy Analysis is an important aspect of
  practical systems analysis

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Ludwig von Bertalanffy on Systems Thinking

• LvB did great work in integrating different
  Systems approaches (Biology, Chemistry,
  Psychology, Cybernetics, Social Sciences) into
  a General Systems Theory (GST)
• GST was basically founded with mathematical
  concepts (differential equations, functions,
  stability)
• Feedback concept is only implicit in GST - lack
  of feedback notation
• Advances in Systems Thinking beyond GST are
  possible with new tools for diagramming/sketching
  feedback structures

Systems Thinking needs systemic means of
communcation (e.g. mind maps, CLDs,
stock-flow-diagrams)!
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My conclusions concerning Systems Thinking

• Systems thinking is like a tree many roots and
  many branches
• Feedback is a core concept of systems thinking.
  Others are
• thinking in processes, thinking in models,
  steering systems
• Systems thinking abilities are darely needed,
  yet, hardly developed, even among higly educated
  persons!
• Systemic diagrams are crucial for systems
  thinking / communication
• Causal Loop Diagrams are easy to learn and very
  flexible systems diagramming tools

Systems thinking should be a guiding idea for any
education at any age!
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How to contact me

• http//go.just.to/go Homepage G. Ossimitz
• http//go.just.to/pap Papers (incl. this lecture)
• http//go.just.to/sd System Dynamics / Systems
  Thinking Mega Link List
• alternativ www.ossimitz.at
• mail ossimitz_at_bigfoot.com

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Systems Thinking und System DynamicsDie
Sichtweisen von Forrester und Richmond
Richmond Systems Thinking is System Dynamics
with an Aura
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Richmond (1991) What is Systems Thinking?
Systems Thinking Activities ltgt systemische
Darstellungsformen
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Testaufgabe "Staatsverschuldung vs. Budgetdefizit"
In Fantasien nennt man den Betrag, um den die
Staatsausgaben in einem Jahr höher sind als die
Staatseinnahmen, "öffentliches Budgetdefizit". Im
Jahr 1998 betrug das öffentliche Budgetdefizit in
Fantasien 60 Mrd. Taler, Ein Jahr später lag es
bei 40 Mrd. Taler. Kreuzen Sie an, welche der
folgenden Aussagen richtig bzw. falsch bzw. nicht
beantwortbar sind!
Klgft 63
Im Jahr 1999 wurden 20 Mrd. Taler Schulden
zurückbezahlt
Der Finanzminister konnte die Staatsschulden von
1998 auf 1999 um ein Drittel senken
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Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu
senken (ausgeglichen zu budgetieren), dann hat
Fantasien keine Schulden mehr.
62
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Die Schulden sind sowohl 1998 als auch 1999
gewachsen.
Wenn es gelingt, das Budgetdefizit auf 0 zu
senken, dann hat Fantasien seinen höchsten
Schuldenstand erreicht.
56
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Ein geringeres Budgetdefizit bedeutet eine
geringere Staatsverschuldung.
Klagenfurt n104 (BWL) Graz n25 (USW) Wien n
25 (WU,TU, Uni)
Diese Performance hätte man auch durch Münzwurf
erreicht!
Graz µ0,76 Wien µ0,8
Graz µ0,32 Wien µ0,68
Graz µ0,64 Wien µ0,72
Graz µ0,44 Wien µ0,52
Graz µ0,16 Wien µ0,28
Graz µ0,4 Wien µ0,56
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Literatur

• Dietrich Dörner (1989) Die Logik des
  Misslingens. Strategisches Denken in komplexen
  Situationen. Reinbek Rowohlt
• Gomez/Probst (1987) Vernetztes Denken im
  Management. Die Orientierung 89. Bern
  Schweizerische Volksbank
• Günther Ossimitz (2000) Entwicklung
  systemischen Denkens. München Profil
• George Richardson (1991) Feedback thought.
  Reading Pegasus Communications
• Peter Senge (1990) Die fünfte Disziplin.
  Stuttgart Klett-Cotta
• John Sterman (2000) Business Dynamics. Systems
  Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World.
  Boston McGrawHill-Irwin
• Frederic Vester (1999) Die Kunst, vernetzt zu
  denken. Stuttgart DVA