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Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective

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Title: Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective


1
Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Regional
Perspective
  • May 24, 2006
  • Regional Anatomy I
  • Ken JIMBO

2
Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical
Security Dimension
1) April 13 Overview and Introduction What is
Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism Regional
Integration 3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia 4)
May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian
Summit 5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in
East Asia 6) May 24 Terrorism and
Counter-Terrorism Regional Perspective
3
Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

(2001-Present)
  • Strategic Circumstances
  • US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
  • Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
  • Cooperative Security Multi-Layered Cooperation
  • Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

4
Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
Members Functions Inclusive / Regional (Geographical Cooperation) Exclusive / Functional (Regional Security Complex)
Forceful Competitive (Deterrence/Response) (Collective Security) Japan-US Alliance Korea-US Alliance
Unforceful Cooperative (CBM / PD) Shanghai Cooperation Organization ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Shangri-la Dialogue Proliferation Security Initiative Anti-Terrorism Cooperation Non-Traditional Security
5
Terrorism as a National Security Threat
  • September 11, 2001
  • World Trade Center Bldg.(NYC)
  • Department of Defense (Washington DC)
  • More than 3000 had died
  • Definition of War
  • More than 1000 dead in a conbat
  • Rhetric of War against Terror

6
The New Age of Terrorism
  • New Trends of Terrorism
  • Terrorism has become bloodier.
  • Terrorist have developed new financial resources,
    so that they are less dependent on state
    sponsors.
  • Terrorists have evolved new model of
    organization.
  • Terrorists can now wage global campaigns.
  • Terrorists have effectively exploited new
    communications technologies.
  • Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to
    strategy, although none of them have achieved
    their stated long range goals.
  • ? Brian Jenkins, The New Age of Terrorism
    (RAND, 2006)

7
Terrorism has become bloodier
  • Death Event
    Suspect
  • 3000 NYC/Washington DC (2001) Al-Qaeda
  • 477 Iran Avadan Arson (1979) Anti-Govt
    Group
  • 412 Massacre in Algeria (1997) GIA
  • 270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing (1988) Libya
  • 241 Beirut US Marine Corp (1983) Islamic
    Front
  • 223 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda
  • 168 Oklahoma Bldg (1995) McbayNichols
  • 115 Korean Air Bombing (1987) North Korea
  • Casualty
  • 5500 Aum Salin Gas Attack (1995) Aum-Shinriky
    o
  • 4000 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda

8
Spatial Analysis of 9-11 Attack
Russia (weapons)
Europe (recruiting)
US(terrorist cells/training)
Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing)
Saudi Arabia(financing)
Pakistan (terrorist cells)
Sudan(terrorist cells/training)
Indonesia/Philippines(terrorist cells/training)
9
(No Transcript)
10
Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda)
Supporter
Sleeper Cell
Hub Cell
Terrorist Cell
11
Patterns of TerrorismUS Perspective
World Trade Center Bombing (1993)
9.11 terrorism/Anthrax (2001)
Kenya/Tanzania US Embassy Bombing (1998)
Aum Shinrikyo Salin Gas Attack (1996)
12
Typology of International Terrorism
  • Territory-oriented Terrorism
  • Europe / Middle East
  • Palestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask /
    Kosovo
  • Asia
  • Sri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF
  • Ideal-oriented Terrorism
  • Political Terrorism
  • Far Left / Far Right / Anarchist
  • Religious Terrorism
  • Islamic Fundamentalist / Christian Fundamentalist
  • Religious Cults
  • Social Issue-oriented Terrorism
  • Anti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental
    Preservation
  • Personal Delusion Terrorism
  • Unabomber

13
Categorization of Counter-Terrorism
Indigenous Measures Cooperation with Allies and Friends Regional Cooperation Global Cooperation Terrorist Organization Surrounding Environment
I Prevention Information Analysis Investigation Border Control Intelligence Sharing Capacity Building Recommendation Evaluation Assesment Intelligence
II Consequence Management Anti-terrorism Exercise urban-suburban coordination Cooperation in case of emergency Joint Seminar
III Anti-Terrorism and Policing Investigation Trial Subduement Cooperation on Investigation, Justice, Military Information Sharing Joint Action Information Sharing Fact Finding
IV. New Measures Lessons Learned New Pact New Concept New Treaty Norm Creation
Source Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)
14
US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1)
Patterns of Global Terrorism (-2003)
  • Patterns of Global Terrorism
  • Officially recognizing more than 30 terrorist
    organizations
  • Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorism
  • make no concessions to terrorists and strike no
    deals
  • bring terrorists to justice to their crimes
  • isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor
    terrorism to force them to change their behavior
  • Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of
    those countries that work with the US and require
    assistance
  • ?US State Department Patterns of Global
    Terrorism (2003)

15
US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) US
Strategy for Combating Terrorism (2003)
16
(No Transcript)
17
Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1)cf Patterns
of Global Terrorism (2003)
  • Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-Mindanao
  • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-Mindanao
  • Kumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-Malaysia
  • Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO)
    Yousif Longpi-Indonesia
  • Jemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin
  • Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias
    Moussaoui, Khalid al-Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000
    Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala Lumpur
  • Abu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines
  • Tamil Tigers - Phuket, Thailand
  • Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
    (LTTE)
  • These organizations are all related through their
    shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism
    revolving around the preservation of Islamic
    culture in response to real and perceived
    aggression.

18
Terrorist Organizations in Asia (2)
  • Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia
    South Asia
  • Japanese Red Army - Japan
  • East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western
    Xinjiang province/China
  • Cambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia U.S.
  • Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Philippines
  • Communist Party of Philippines / New Peoples
    Army
  • AUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan Russia
  • Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East
    and Europe

19
(No Transcript)
20
Southeast Asia as Terrorist Bed
  • Areas with Major Islamic Population
  • Middle East 19.5 (238,000,000)
  • Indonesia 17 (200,000,000)
  • South Asia 25 (300,000,000)
  • Africa 20 (240,000,000)
  • Turkey 10 (125,000,000)
  • Characteristic of Southeast Asias Extremists
  • Muslim Youth Movement
  • Diffused Centralized Command Control
  • External Support and Recruitment
  • Early Stages of Organizational Development
  • Gaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg
    Bali Bombing)

21
Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating
Terrorism
  • APEC
  • APEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of
    Terrorism (2002)
  • APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003)
  • Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003)
  • Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative
    (2004)
  • ARF
  • Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing
    (2002)
  • Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action
    on border security (2003)
  • Statement Strengthening Transport Security
    Against International Terrorism (2004)
  • Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange
    and Document Integrity and Security in Enhancing
    Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other
    Transnational Crimes(2005)
  • ASEAN3
  • Joint Statement (2001-2005)

22
Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperationon Combating
Terrorism
  • Regional Groupings
  • Bali Process
  • Bali Regional Ministerial Meeting on
    Counter-Terrorism (2004)
  • Legal Issue Working Group
  • Southeast Asia Center for Counter-Terrorism
  • Malaysia
  • Bilateral Cooperation
  • Japan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU)
  • Among ASEAN Member States
  • Australia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand)
  • Ad-hoc (functional) Cooperation
  • Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) Japan,
    Australia, Singapore
  • Container Security Initiative (CSI) Japan,
    China, Singapore, Malaysia

  • Taiwan

23
Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism
  • Economic Sphere
    Security Sphere
  • Global Framework GATT / IMF UN /
    Multinational
  • Mega-Regionalism APEC
    ARF / OSCE
  • Regionalism EU / ASEAN 3
    EU / ASEAN
  • Coalition Multilateral FTAs
    Anti-Terrorism
  • Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs
    Bilateral Alliance
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