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Revision of Unit A3 Hazards


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Title: Revision of Unit A3 Hazards

Revision of Unit A3 Hazards
  • Part 1

The next 4 weeks Hazards
  • Key idea 1 Some places are more hazardous than
  • Key idea 2 Hazards have an impact on people and
    the environment.
  • Key idea 3 Different levels of economic
    development affect how people cope with hazards.

Hazards Week 1
  • Key idea 1 Some places are more hazardous than
  • Essential content
  • Different types of hazard (climatic, tectonic,
  • The global distributions, causes and
    characteristics of tropical revolving storms,
    volcanic and earthquake activity (plate
  • Measuring and recording weather conditions, eg
    strong winds, intense rainfall.
  • Mapping the global distribution of recent
  • Collecting and recording weather data (fieldwork

Hazards Week 2
  • Key idea 2 Hazards have an impact on people and
    the environment.
  • Essential content
  • Identifying the scale of natural disasters and
    their short-term (deaths, injuries, damage to
    buildings and infrastructure) and long term
    (homelessness, costs of repairing damage)
  • Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
    risk from hazard events.
  • Research into a recent hazard event (egg
    satellite images, damage photographs).
  • A comparative study of the impacts of tropical
    storms, in an LIC and an HIC.

Hazards Week 3/4
  • Key idea 3 Different levels of economic
    development affect how people cope with hazards.
  • Essential content
  • Managing hazards (tropical storms, volcanic
    eruptions and earthquakes) involves taking
    actions both before and after the event.
  • Predicting and preparing for hazards (education,
    early warning systems, shelters).
  • Responding to hazards short-term (emergency aid
    and disaster relief) long-term (risk assessment,
    adjustment, improving prediction).
  • Surveying peoples views on the management of a
    hazard event
  • Case studies of the management of one tropical
    storm and one tectonic event. One of these should
    have happened in an LIC and the other in an HIC.

So this week Key Idea 1
  • Some places are more hazardous than others

Different types of hazard (climatic, tectonic,
  • A natural hazard is a threat of a naturally
    occurring event that will have a negative effect
    on people or the environment.
  • Many natural hazards are interrelated, e.g.
    earthquakes can cause tsunamis and drought can
    lead directly to famine.
  • If this threat becomes a serious reality then it
    becomes a disaster.
  • If you live on the edge of a tectonic plate, then
    earthquakes are a hazard.
  • A natural hazard becomes a natural disaster when
    it affects people, officially causing more than
    10 deaths, injuring more than 100 people, and/or
    causing US16 million of damage.
  • So the San Francisco earthquake was a disaster
  • US400 million (9.5 billion in 2009 dollars).
  • Over 80 of the city was destroyed by the
    earthquake and fire
  • Over 3000 died from the earthquake and the fire
    that followed as a result of gas leaks etc
  • About 300,000 of the 410,000 population were made
  • Injury figures have not been established

Different types of hazard (climatic, tectonic,
  • Natural hazards include
  • Avalanche
  • Landslide and mudflows
  • Volcanic eruptions
  • Lahar
  • Flood
  • Tsunami
  • Tropical storms
  • Tornados
  • Wildfire

The global distributions, causes and
characteristics of tropical revolving storms
  • They are known under 3 names
  • They are hurricanes of the United States and the
  • They are tropical cyclones on the India Ocean
  • They are Typhoons in the Pacific
  • They have wind speeds of at least 120km/hr
  • They only usually occur within a band from 20 Deg
    North to 20 Deg South of the equator.
  • They do not happen at all times of the year but
    are most common between mid summer and autumn.
  • So for the Southern Hemisphere this is between
    December and April while in the Northern
    Hemisphere, it is between June and October. Those
    storms whose wind speed do not reach these higher
    limits but have wind speeds reaching 60 km/hr are
    usually called tropical storms.

Here is a map showing where they form and where
they travel to
The causes and characteristics of tropical
revolving storms
  • They form over warm sea which has a temperature
    of at least 26 deg C
  • The warm sea evaporates and warms the air above
  • The warm moist air rises, causing low pressure.
  • As this warm air rises, it cools and the water
    vapour condenses into huge tall cumulous clouds
  • The trade winds swirl in and towards the low
    pressure to replace the rising air.
  • This air then become warm and moist and rises
  • The swirling air around the centre of the storm
    pulls the warm, damp, rising air outwards.

The causes and characteristics of tropical
revolving storms
  • This makes the whole storm spin at increasing
  • Thus the eye of the storm is a low pressure
    centre down which cold, dense air from above air
    from above drops and adds to the warm moist
    spinning air that is rising up.
  • It continues to build in size and speed, getting
    all its energy from the warm water below.
  • The force of the spinning storm pushes down on
    the sea below it so that a wave forms a rim
    around the storm.
  • As the swirling storm picks up speed, it begins
    to move in a westerly direction away from the
    equator (so that is NW in the Northern

The characteristics of tropical storms
  • If it approaches landfall, the wind will begin to
    pick up and the dark thunder clouds can be seen
  • On the coast, the first real sign might well be a
    tidal surge, a big wave up to 7 metres high,
    caused by the downward pressure of the storm on
    the sea, made higher in front, like the bow wave
    on a ship, as the storm moves forward.
  • The very high winds and torrential rain will
  • At some point, the wind may drop and rain lessen,
    if the eye of the storm passes over.
  • But the wind and rain will soon pick up again.
  • However once the storm has blown onto the land it
    will soon loose speed and ferocity, as its source
    of energy, the warm water, is no longer there to
    feed the storm.

If this is too wordy for you, go and look at the
animation on http//ih-igcse-geography.wikispaces.
Category Wind Speed Effects
1 120 - 153 km/hr Storm surge 1.2 1.5m Some flooding but no structural damage
2 155 - 180 km/hr Storm surge 1.8 2.4m Trees down and some loose tiles
3 180 210 km/hr Storm surge 2.7-3.7m Structural damage to houses severe flooding
4 210 250 km/hr Storm surge 4-5.5m Severe flooding inland roofs ripped off major structural damage
5 gt250 km/hr Storm surge gt5.5m Severe flooding inland severe damage to most structures
The global distributions, causes and
characteristics volcanic and earthquake activity
(plate movements).
  • The earths structure consists of
  • A core
  • A mantle
  • A crust
  • The crust is broken into a number of pieces
    called plates.
  • The plates are moved by the viscous
    up-across-down, convection current movement of
    the mantle.
  • It is mostly due to these movements that
    earthquakes and volcanoes occur along the plate

The global distributions and causes volcanic
and earthquake activity
  • These are the 4 kinds of plate movements.
  • I have deliberately grouped them in 2 pairs.
  • How the pair on the left different from those on
    the right?
  • On drawing subduction is taking place which one
    and what does it mean?
  • There are heavy dense oceanic plates and lighter
    continental plates.
  • What kind of plates are in each of these plate

The global distributions and causes volcanic
and earthquake activity
Can you give me examples of where each type of
plate is found?
The global distributions and causes volcanic
and earthquake activity
Can you see the link between the plate edge and
the type of activity that takes place along it?
Green major plates there are lots of small
ones that do not show Yellow earthquakes Red
The causes and characteristics of earthquake
  • Earthquakes occur mainly on plate boundaries that
    are moving towards, past or away from each other
  • Over many years pressure builds up until
    eventually the rocks snap along a weak area
    called the FAULT LINE
  • The point of origin of an earthquake is the FOCUS
    this is the point where it starts from
  • The place at the surface directly above the focus
    is called the EPICENTRE

What sort of margin is this?
The closer to the surface the focus of the
earthquake is and the softer the rocks, the
higher the magnitude of the seismic waves and the
greater the damage
  • The stored energy is released, travelling
    outwards in SEISMIC WAVES
  • Seismic Waves are strongest at the epicentre of
    an earthquake this is where the most damage is
  • Seismic Waves spread out from the focus like

The causes and characteristics of earthquake
  • The magnitude of an earthquake is measured on the
    Richter Scale
  • An earthquakes magnitude (the strength) is
    measured using a seismograph.
  • Each subsequent level is x10 more powerful than
    the previous on was.
  • The scale is continuous (has no end) although
    nothing above 9.2 has not been recorded on land.

Measuring Earthquakes one way
But the only problem with Richter is
  • That it tells you about the strength of the
    earthquake at focus/epicentre and so each
    earthquake only has 1 value.
  • But obviously, this tells you nothing about what
    it is like further away is there any damage?
    How great is the damage?
  • So there is another measure of earthquakes, which
    when you are looking them up you may come across.
  • It is called the Modified Mercalli Scale - it is
    often measured using Roman Numerals I, II, III,
    IV etc
  • Go to the animation where you can get an
    appreciation of what an earthquake may feel like
    as various points on the scale
  • http//

An example
  • On September 29 there was an earthquake under the
    sea, south of Samoa and American Samoa had a
    Richter scale of 8.0 (or 8.3 depends who you
    read) the Richter scale predicts serious damage
    across several hundred kilometres.
  • But the Mercalli scales for these were Samoa felt
    (V) and (IV) at American Samoa.
  • But it was the tsunami that did the damage. At
    least 149 people killed in Samoa, 34 people in
    American Samoa and nine people killed and four
    injured on Niuatoputapu, Tonga. Widespread damage
    to infrastructure at Pago Pago and Samoa.

The characteristics of earthquake activity
  • There are 2 types of waves in an earthquake
  • Body waves and surface waves.
  • Body waves travel outward in all directions,
    including downward, from the quake's focus --
    that is, the particular spot where the fault
    first began to rupture.
  • Surface waves, by contrast, are confined to the
    upper few hundred miles of the crust.
  • They travel parallel to the surface, like ripples
    on the surface of a pond out from the focus. They
    are also slower than body waves.

The characteristics of earthquake activity
  • Following an earthquake
  • ..the body waves (P-wave) strike first and are
    the fastest kind People often report a sound like
    a train just before they feel a quake, which is
    the P-wave moving as an acoustic wave in the air.
  • Then the secondary, or S-waves, arrive. A person
    in a building perceives the arrival of S-waves as
    a sudden powerful jolt, as if a giant has pounded
    his fist down on the roof.
  • Finally, the surface waves strike. In very strong
    earthquakes, the up-and-down and back-and-forth
    motions caused by surface waves can make the
    ground appear to roll like the surface of the
    ocean, and can literally topple buildings over.

The causes of volcanic activity
This is one worth learning to draw
  • Just to remind you here are the plates and
  • Where are the places the volcanoes occur most
  • Why is that?

Ring of Fire
This is one worth learning to draw
The characteristics of volcanic activity
  • Often earthquakes occurring near a volcano can
    be one of the first warnings of things to come
  • Lava it can be thick, viscous (sticky) lava or
    much more runny.
  • The thick lava moves relatively slowly and
    hardens quickly to form new rock and so forms a
    cone shape a cone shape. Eruptions tend to be
  • Eruptions that give out the thin, runny lava tend
    to be frequent but relatively gentle and come
    from a shield volcano.
  • Pyroclastic flow some volcanoes do not give out
    lava alone but a mixture of hot steam, ash, rock
    and dust.
  • A pyroclastic flow can roll down the sides of a
    volcano at very high speeds and with temperatures
    of over 400 C.

The characteristics of volcanic activity
  • Ash clouds may affect more than the immediate
    area. They consist of water vapour, sulphur gas
    as well as small rock fragments and tiny pieces
    of glass.
  • Many of these will return to earth and add a
    layer of dust to a wide area.
  • However, the gases may be carried a long way by
    the wind once they have reached high enough into
    the atmosphere. This may be carried all around
    the world ad has in the past had a lasting impact
    on the climate, lowering the temperature for a
    year or more. E.g. Krakatoa in 1883 is the
    largest volcano eruption in recorded history for
    which we have data.
  • Average global temperatures fell by as much as
    1.2 degrees Celsius in the year following the
    eruption. Weather patterns continued to be
    chaotic for years and temperatures did not return
    to normal until 1888.

Finally Lehars
  • These can occur at the same time as a volcanic
    eruption but may also occur over succeeding
  • Lahars form when water from intense rainfall,
    melting snow and ice, or the sudden failure of a
    natural dam, mixes with loose volcanic material,
    creating mudflows that can be particularly
    dangerous and destructive.
  • Although lahars contain a lot of volcanic ash
    and rock fragmentsmaking them dense and viscous
    like wet concretethey actually flow faster than
    clear-water streams.
  • These mudflows can rush down the flanks of a
    volcano at speeds as great as 65 kilometres per
    hour and can travel more than 80 kilometres.
    Lahars that contain the most debris move the
    fastest and are the most destructive.

VEI Volcanic Explosivity Index
  • This measure the size of the eruption after it is
  • However, forecasting an eruption on a scale is
    rather more complicated, as each volcano has a
    slightly different way of behaving so there are
    almost as many scales as there are volcanoes! But
    most use a variation on the green (no problem),
    yellow (not much to worry about), orange (watch
    this space!) and finally red (move NOW) warning

Collecting and recording weather data
  • Many of you had a go at a variation on this. But
    there is an indication that the way this could be
    examined is by them asking you how you collect
    weather data.
  • Whilst most data is collected electronically
    these days, you are still expected to understand
    the ideas behind how these measurements are made,
    so you need to know how the basic instruments
    work even though you will probably never use many
    of them!

Collecting and recording weather data
  • What you need to measure
  • Temperature including maximum and minimum
  • Pressure
  • Wind speed and direction
  • Precipitation
  • What pieces of kit you need to understand
  • Thermometers various
  • Stevensons screen
  • Barometer
  • Anemometer
  • Weather Vane
  • Rain gauge

Collecting and recording weather data
  • The thermometer
  • Usually consists of a hollow glass bulb attached
    to a narrow stem with a thread-like bore. The
    bulb is filled with either mercury or alcohol
    stained red.
  • The liquid in the tube expands when the
    temperature rises and contracts when the
    temperature falls. The amount of expansion and
    contraction is measured by a numbered scale.
  • Whilst thermometers are really measuring their
    own liquid temperature, they are used to measure
    the temperature of the surrounding air.
  • To make sure that the temperature of the
    surrounding air is the same as the thermometer,
    it must be shaded from sunlight and be exposed to
    adequate ventilation. These conditions are
    provided by a Stevenson screen.

Why is it white? Why are there louvers? Why is it
on legs? Why the large roof? Met office Stevenson
screens in the UK have doors facing north. Why?
Collecting and recording weather data
  • Wet and dry thermometer
  • If the air is dry, any water will evaporate
  • As water evaporates is removes heat from its
    surroundings to give the energy to change from a
    liquid to a gas.
  • One of these thermometers has a supply of
    moisture wrapped around its bowl, so on a dry
    day, this will evaporate and reduce the wet
    thermometers temperature.
  • The difference in the temperature between the 2
    thermometers can be used to calculate the of
    moisture in the air.

Air Pressure
  • One instrument used to measure air pressure is
    called a barometer.
  • But a more usual one used in weather stations is
    a barograph.
  • The motor rotates the drum containing the paper
  • The capsules are flexible metal discs from which
    nearly all the air has been extracted. As the
    external air pressure increases, the discs squash
    together more, and this rotates the arm so that
    the end with the pen on draws an upward line on
    the drum.

Collecting and recording weather data
  • Wind speed is measured using an anemometer.
  • An anemometer is made up of cups attached to
    handle with a scale on it.
  • The stronger the wind the faster the cups rotate
    and the higher the reading on the scale.
  • A wind vane is used to measure wind direction.
  • It is measured using compass directions (north,
    south, east or west) from which the wind has
    blown so in this case the wind is coming from the

Collecting and recording weather data
  • The instrument used to measure rainfall is a rain
  • Notice that the precipitation runs into a funnel
    and from there into a bottle.
  • The bottle will be calibrated to measure the
    depth of rain falling on a 127mm circle. Notice
    that the storage bottle is below ground. Why
    might that be?

Why do you think the distance above ground of
the gauge top is also fixed?
  • Key idea 2 Hazards have an impact on people and
    the environment.
  • Essential content
  • Identifying the scale of natural disasters and
    their short-term (deaths, injuries, damage to
    buildings and infrastructure) and long term
    (homelessness, costs of repairing damage)
  • Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
    risk from hazard events.
  • Research into a recent hazard event (e.g.
    satellite images, damage photographs).
  • A comparative study of the impacts of tropical
    storms, in an LIC and an HIC.

Short term impacts of natural disasters
Landslide and mudflows
Wild fire
Volcanic eruptions
Tropical storm
Are there a few or lots of injuries
Do they high or medium or low mortality
associated with them?
Are these local or national or international?
Are many home damaged
Is transport hit?
Is a lot of farmland/crops destroyed
Is a lot of farmland/crops destroyed
Are the services damaged water electricity etc
Can anyone think of any others?
Long term impacts of natural disasters
Landslide and mudflows
Wild fire
Volcanic eruptions
Tropical storm
Will it take a long time to repair roads railways
and airports
Will it cost a lot to put right?
Will there be many long term homeless?
Will there be enough food being produced or will
long term aid be needed
Are many home damaged
Is transport hit?
Will the services be able to be reinstated?
Can anyone think of any others?
Will the businesses be able to restart?
Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
risk from hazard events.
  • A natural event (e.g. earthquake, flood,
    landslide, volcanic eruption, tropical storm)
    that has the potential to cause damage,
    destruction and death present as a natural
    hazard. So Hazard is the potential to cause harm.
  • Risk on the other hand is the likelihood of harm
    (in defined circumstances, and usually qualified
    by some statement of the severity of the harm).
  • How frequently is there a risk? How serious can
    it be? Is there anything that can be done to
    reduce the risk?
  • This is a risk assessment. 

Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
risk from hazard events.
  • People make decisions on the basis of
  • Physical/ environmental how often will I be at
    risk? The climate is good (warm enough and wet
    enough), soil is fertile, the natural resources
    for fishing, farming are there to make a good
  • Human/social the family has always lived there,
    there is a community, work, it is a pleasant
    place to be, do not have a choice or do not see
    themselves as having one, lack of education to do
    other work. There are things that can be done to
    reduce the risk (but more about that in the next
    week or 2)
  • Economic work, from farming, tourism maybe,
    fishing, it is where property is owned.

Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
risk from hazard events.
Can anyone think of any other ideas?
  • In particular near volcanoes
  • The soil is excellent. Lava breaks down over time
    to produce the most fertile soil on earth. e.g.
    around Vesuvius where much of Italys tomato crop
    is grown.
  • Along plate edges, geothermal power is often a
    cheap and clean source of power e.g. Iceland
  • Usually, there are sufficient signs to move to
    safer places, so while property could be as risk,
    increasing people are less so, e.g. Mount
    Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 was the 2nd
    largest eruption in the 20th century but only 300
    died because of mass evacuation of the area.
  • Tourism is a strong pull, e.g. in Uganda, a
    country trying hard to increase its tourist
    industry, the volcanic region around Mt Elgon is
    being heavily promoted for it's landscape, huge
    waterfalls, wildlife, climbing and hiking and its
    remote 'get away from it all' location.

Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
risk from hazard events.
  • In particular in earthquake zones
  • Along plate edges, geothermal power is often a
    cheap and clean source of power e.g. Iceland
  • Many earthquake areas are close to the coast
    the climate is good, fishing and farming are
  • Many of these places like Japan get daily
    earthquakes and they have learnt to deal with
    them. They causes little or no damage as they
    adjust building methods for example.
  • The big ones are very infrequent 1906 and 1989
    in San Francisco, so people believe they can

Can anyone think of any other ideas?
Reasons why people continue to live in areas at
risk from hazard events.
  • In particular areas subject to cyclonic storms
  • These are close to the coast the climate is
    good, fishing and farming are easy.
  • Transport links tend to be good and the flat land
    near the coast is a good place to build towns and
  • With modern technology, there should be enough
    time to evacuate areas in danger (although as
    with Katrina the right choices are not always
    made), so while danger to property and services
    are still at risk, the danger to life should be
    much reduced.

Can anyone think of any other ideas?
Research into a recent hazard event (e.g.
satellite images, damage photographs).
  • Those of you who were here last autumn had
    several chances to investigate current recent
    hazardous events.
  • Those of you who were not might like to look at
    the Haiti earthquake there is some good stuff
    on the wiki which you could use as a starter, but
    do try find some more yourselves. see list of
    links under the PP in the wiki
  • http//

A comparative study of the impacts of tropical
storms, in an LIC and an HIC.
  • For these 2 we did Hurricane Katrina that hit New
    Orleans, USA (HIC)
  • And Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh (LIC)
  • I am not going to go over them thats for you
    guys for homework
  • There is plenty of information towards the bottom
  • http//

Hazards Week 3/4
this is what the syllabus says but really once
you are dealing with the reality, it is no longer
a hazard but a disaster
  • Key idea 3 Different levels of
    economic development affect
    how people cope with
  • Essential content
  • Managing hazards (tropical storms, volcanic
    eruptions and earthquakes) involves taking
    actions both before and after the event.
  • Predicting and preparing for hazards (education,
    early warning systems, shelters).
  • Responding to hazards short-term (emergency aid
    and disaster relief) long-term (risk assessment,
    adjustment, improving prediction).
  • Surveying peoples views on the management of a
    hazard event
  • Case studies of the management of one tropical
    storm and one tectonic event. One of these should
    have happened in an LIC and the other in an HIC.

Case studies of the management of one tropical
storm and one tectonic event. One of these should
have happened in an LIC and the other in an HIC.
  • For these I have chosen
  • HIC tropical storm Hurricane Wilma (which
    happened a few months after Katrina) and looking
    at its effect on Florida why? because
    everyone had been so critical of how Katrina was
    managed that all areas in the US subject to
    storms had had a severe wake-up call and had
    started reviewing procedure and Wilma was
    responded to in a way more appropriate to an HIC
  • LIC tectonic event - Haiti

The what, the where and the how
  • Hurricane Wilma

Hurricane Wilma hits Florida
  • When? Monday October 24, 2005 around 5 o'clock
    in the evening
  • How bad? Winds of 195km with gusts up to 215km (
    cat 3)
  • Storm surge less than expected at 2.4m

  • Death 6 directly caused by the hurricane due to
    wind-blown debris and another 23 caused during
    the response.
  • Infrastructure damage- several flyover junctions
    were severely damages. High rise offices and
    flats also received damage too. Mobile homes,
    quite popular with retirees were turned into
    match wood
  • 3 million lost power some for a couple of
  • Water was contaminated and had to be boiled in
    many areas for a week or 2

Economic impact
  • Recall the forces of the storm was greater in the
    LICs than the HICs but look at the cost?
  • Work buildings in Florida mostly were effected
    too which prevented the people from going to work
    which added to the cost.
  • Also Florida's sugar and citrus industry was hard
    hit the cropping season had already started and
    had to be halted indefinitely. Damage to
    sugarcane crops was critical and widespread.

The what, the where and the how
  • Haiti

Haiti Earthquake
  • When?
  • 12th January 2010 at 16.53 (about tea-time) local
  • It was a 7.0 magnitude earthquake.
  • But as we know this only tells as the size of the
    earthquake not the damage it does - see over

What can you see from this?
  • 217,000230,000 dead
  • 300,000 injured
  • 1,000,000 homeless
  • 250,000 residences and 30,000 commercial
    buildings collapsed or severely damaged
  • This is a big earthquake, but why were the number
    so high? Were they high in fact or is this
    reasonable for an earthquake that size?
  • Lets see

Why did so many people die in Haiti
  • Three Earthquakes
  • OK, so the Italian earthquake was much less
    powerful less than 1/10 of the Chinese one but
  • And what about New Zealand?

  • A 7.0-magnitude earthquake has struck off New
    Zealand's South Island at 4.35 on Saturday
    morning, 4th September 2010.
  • The epicentre was 55km north-west of
    Christchurch, at a depth of 12 km and no-none
    was killed! But as you can see, there is still a
    fair amount of mess might not have been so good
    a result if it had been when the streets were

But is not just deaths
  • With injury and homelessness, the story is a
    little different
  • The difference appears to be much more in line
    with the quake strength although Haitis
    injuries appear higher than expected

Managing potential disasters involves taking
actions both before and after the event.
  • One of the issues that is part of living in a
    hazardous area is to assess the risk and then
    decide how to deal with it
  • Carry out risk assessments
  • As a result of these assessments, adjust
    behaviour this could be implement training and
    information, change building design, change
    zoning laws, move settlements lots of things
  • Improve prediction
  • Devise a plan of action and the resources to
    manage the hazard after the event.

Predicting potential disasters
  • Predicting some hazards is easier than others
  • Tropical storms take time to build over the
    ocean, and satellite observation together with
    weather forecasting can estimate the path and the
    speed of movement with increasing accuracy. This
    technology is readily available to all who need
    it, rich and poor alike. There are enough
    developed countries in every region who have the
    scientists, technology and resources to monitor
    whole areas and the LICs have good access to this

Predicting potential disasters
  • Predicting some hazards is easier than others
  • Predicting volcanic eruptions is becoming
    increasingly sophisticated.
  • There are a number of tools which show when an
    eruption is becoming more likely. But there is no
    certainty that episodes that do happen before
    every eruption, will necessarily imply that an
    eruption will occur this time. This means that it
    is often difficult to persuade people to evacuate
    in time.
  • Warning Signs Before an eruption, magma moves
    into the area beneath the volcano and collects in
    a magma chamber.
  • As it comes closer to the surface, the magma
    releases gases.
  • The movement of magma produces small earthquakes
    and vibrations.
  • Magma gathering in a chamber causes slight
    swelling of the volcano's slopes.
  • Gases released near the volcano can be measured
    for changes in quantity and makeup.
  • How are these monitored?

Predicting potential disasters
  • Seismicity Changes in seismic activity measured
    by a seismograph always occurs as volcanoes
    awaken and prepare to erupt.
  • Electric current Since magma gives off electric
    currents, electric meters are used to spot rising
    magma levels by measuring its electric current.
    Gravimeters can also detect flowing magma.
  • Temperature change Scientists also take
    temperatures and gauge gas by using a Landsat
    satellite. The satellite uses infrared sensors to
    detect temperatures and changes in volcanoes.
  • Gas Emissions increases in sulphur emissions are
    another predictor of volcanic activity. There can
    be monitored by stationary electronic boxes which
    can radio linked to the base. .
  • Ground Deformation Swelling of the volcano
    signals that magma has accumulated near the
    surface. The tiltmeter is a sensor that uses a
    laser beam to find the rising or lowering of
    magma levels by measuring changes in ground
    elevation (angle). GPS (Global Positioning
    System) uses satellites plot exact positions and
    can also be used to sense bulges occurring.

Predicting potential disasters
  • Earthquakes are the most difficult to predict
  • Despite considerable research efforts by
    seismologists, scientifically reproducible
    predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day
    or month.
  • However, for well-understood faults seismic
    hazard assessment maps can estimate the
    probability that an earthquake of a given size
    will affect a given location over a certain
    number of years.
  • The overall ability to predict earthquakes either
    on an individual basis or on a statistical basis
    remains remote.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Preparing for tropical storms
  • Since prediction is not a major problem, there is
    every opportunity to prepare for them. In HICs
    for the most part, every thing that can be done
    is. But in LICs, they have neither the funding
    nor the personnel to do it all.
  • Ideally
  • Action plans and practices for the police and
    emergency services are essential
  • Evacuation plans are a major element.
  • For example, since the disaster of Katrina when
    little or no public evacuation transport was
    organised (even though the yellow school buses
    rotted in a waterlogged car park), coach
    companies have contracts in place should the need
    arise again.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Preparing for tropical storms
  • Also supplies of water, medical help etc need to
    be ready to go.
  • They need to plan where the evacuees should go
  • Families are encouraged to have individual plans,
    like emergency boxes with radios, batteries,
    first aid, essential documents etc and contact
    details for friends and relatives.
  • Also there are building modification which can
    make a house less likely to be damaged and storm
    proof local buildings where local housing is
    inadequate to survive floodwater and high winds
  • For examples of this see http//ih-igcse-geograph
    for efforts made in Bangladesh

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Preparing for volcanic eruptions
  • Local Plan
  • Using all tools available assess the danger. Be
    in contact with all emergency services.
  • Plan where evacuees can go open schools and
    community buildings outside immediate danger
  • Plan for water, food, medical care, bedding and
    clothing to be available.
  • Establish who can drive out and who cannot and
    arrange for the removal of any unable to
    transport themselves out of danger, if need be.
  • Use local radio/TV to inform the population of
    what is going on.
  • When evacuation becomes essential, make sure all
    facilities are open and have staff and
  • Watch the situation to see when the population
    can safely return home.
  • Have ready temporary medium term accommodation
    (tents etc) in case building damage has been
    significant .
  • Have a means of supplying clean water and food if
    there has been a breakdown of either of these
  • Have a plan ready to help repair/rebuild housing
    and other essentials, e.g. schools, water, power

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Preparing for volcanic eruptions
  • Personal Plan
  • If you live close to a volcano, plan carefully.
    Produce a check list and have a sturdy box to
    keep valuables.
  • Have a safe place to go to and have an emergency
    bag ready to go with you. Include sufficient
    water, food and medical equipment supplies, when
    travelling and at base location (minimum
    72hours). Include a portable radio, torch and
    spare batteries, spare clothing and essential
    documents and cash.
  • When there is an evacuation notice sent out, do
    not hang about.
  • In the run yup there maybe earthquakes associated
    with the eruption carry out the usual drill for
    earthquakes (see later)
  • Heavy rain an eruption can lead to landslides
    which maybe very hot. Avoid coming into contact.
  • During a volcanic eruption, sulphur fumes may
    make breathing difficult have a mask in your
  • Once things have quietened down, wait to be told
    to go back the volcanologists may know
    something you dont.
  • For a maga list Grab and Go Bag check out
  • http//

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Preparing for earthquakes
  • As the prediction is so poor, there is little
    than can be done before hand to prepare for it.
  • So the need for quake-proof buildings and
    training as to what you should do, is about the
    sum total of preparation.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Some small things a homeowner can do NOW before
    the quake hits
  • Fasten shelves securely to walls.
  • Place large or heavy objects on lower shelves.
  • Store breakable items such as bottled foods,
    glass, and china in low, closed cabinets with
  • Hang heavy items such as pictures and mirrors
    away from beds, couches, and anywhere people sit.
  • Brace overhead light fixtures.
  • Repair defective electrical wiring and leaky gas
    connections. These are potential fire risks.
  • Secure a water heater by strapping it to the wall
    studs and bolting it to the floor.
  • Repair any deep cracks in ceilings or
    foundations. Get expert advice if there are signs
    of structural defects.
  • Store weed killers, pesticides, and flammable
    products securely in closed cabinets with latches
    and on bottom shelves.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Teach children how and when to call police, or
    fire department and which radio station to tune
    to for emergency information.
  • Teach all family members how and when to turn off
    gas, electricity, and water.
  • Importantly, know what to do if the quake hits
    practice often.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Know What to Do During an Earthquake
  • Stay as safe as possible during an earthquake. Be
    aware that some earthquakes are actually
    foreshocks and a larger earthquake might occur.
    Minimize your movements to a few steps to a
    nearby safe place and if you are indoors, stay
    there until the shaking has stopped and you are
    sure exiting is safe.
  • If indoors
  • DROP to the ground take COVER by getting under a
    sturdy table or other piece of furniture and
    HOLD ON until the shaking stops. If there isnt a
    table or desk near you, cover your face and head
    with your arms and crouch in an inside corner of
    the building.
  • Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and
    walls, and anything that could fall, such as
    lighting fixtures or furniture.
  • Stay in bed if you are there when the earthquake
    strikes. Hold on and protect your head with a
    pillow, unless you are under a heavy light
    fixture that could fall. In that case, move to
    the nearest safe place.
  • Use a doorway for shelter only if it is in close
    proximity to you and if you know it is a strongly
    supported, loadbearing doorway.
  • Stay inside until the shaking stops and it is
    safe to go outside. Research has shown that most
    injuries occur when people inside buildings
    attempt to move to a different location inside
    the building or try to leave.
  • Be aware that the electricity may go out or the
    sprinkler systems or fire alarms may turn on.
  • DO NOT use the lifts.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Know What to Do During an Earthquake
  • If outdoors
  • Stay there.
  • Move away from buildings, streetlights, and
    utility wires.
  • Once in the open, stay there until the shaking
    stops. The greatest danger exists directly
    outside buildings, at exits and alongside
    exterior walls. Many of the 120 fatalities from
    the 1933 Long Beach earthquake occurred when
    people ran outside of buildings only to be killed
    by falling debris from collapsing walls. Ground
    movement during an earthquake is seldom the
    direct cause of death or injury. Most
    earthquake-related casualties result from
    collapsing walls, flying glass, and falling
  • If in a moving vehicle
  • Stop as quickly as safety permits and stay in the
    vehicle. Avoid stopping near or under buildings,
    trees, overpasses, and utility wires.
  • Proceed cautiously once the earthquake has
    stopped. Avoid roads, bridges, or ramps that
    might have been damaged by the earthquake.
  • If trapped under debris
  • Do not light a match.
  • Do not move about or kick up dust.
  • Cover your mouth with a handkerchief or clothing.
  • Tap on a pipe or wall so rescuers can locate you.
    Use a whistle if one is available. Shout only as
    a last resort. Shouting can cause you to inhale
    dangerous amounts of dust.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Know What to Do After an Earthquake
  • Expect aftershocks. These secondary shockwaves
    are usually less violent than the main quake but
    can be strong enough to do additional damage to
    weakened structures and can occur in the first
    hours, days, weeks, or even months after the
  • Listen to a battery-operated radio or television.
    Listen for the latest emergency information.
  • Use the telephone only for emergency calls.
  • Open cabinets cautiously. Beware of objects that
    can fall off shelves.
  • Stay away from damaged areas. Stay away unless
    your assistance has been specifically requested
    by police, fire, or relief organizations. Return
    home only when authorities say it is safe.
  • Be aware of possible tsunamis if you live in
    coastal areas. These are also known as seismic
    sea waves (mistakenly called "tidal waves"). When
    local authorities issue a tsunami warning, assume
    that a series of dangerous waves is on the way.
    Stay away from the beach.
  • Help injured or trapped persons. Remember to help
    your neighbors who may require special assistance
    such as infants, the elderly, and people with
    disabilities. Give first aid where appropriate.
    Do not move seriously injured persons unless they
    are in immediate danger of further injury. Call
    for help

Preparing for potential disasters
  • Know What to Do After an Earthquake
  • Clean up spilled medicines, bleaches, gasoline or
    other flammable liquids immediately. Leave the
    area if you smell gas or fumes from other
  • Inspect the entire length of chimneys for damage.
    Unnoticed damage could lead to a fire.
  • Inspect utilities.
  • Check for gas leaks. If you smell gas or hear
    blowing or hissing noise, open a window and
    quickly leave the building. Turn off the gas at
    the outside main valve if you can and call the
    gas company from a neighbor's home. If you turn
    off the gas for any reason, it must be turned
    back on by a professional.
  • Look for electrical system damage. If you see
    sparks or broken or frayed wires, or if you smell
    hot insulation, turn off the electricity at the
    main fuse box or circuit breaker. If you have to
    step in water to get to the fuse box or circuit
    breaker, call an electrician first for advice.
  • Check for sewage and water lines damage. If you
    suspect sewage lines are damaged, avoid using the
    toilets and call a plumber. If water pipes are
    damaged, contact the water company and avoid
    using water from the tap. You can obtain safe
    water by melting ice cubes.

Preparing for potential disasters
  • You may have noticed that many of the personal
    instructions are for people who live in HICs.
  • It is authorities in these countries that have
    the time and money to publish the guidance.
  • There appears to be an assumption that money will
    be available for essentials, even if they are
  • Also that the necessary materials will be there
  • But once you consider MICs or LICs, the money and
    materials will not be there for a quick fix
    think about the Pakistani floods, where people
    are still waiting, after many days, for basic
    food supplies and clean water.
  • This is because emergency aid is usually only
    available from the International community and it
    takes time to gather the materials and personnel
    and set up a working system.
  • These poorer countries, and even those who are
    well on the way to being developed, do not have
    the backup to cover disasters although some
    like Bangladesh do their best.

Preparing for Wilma
  • Friday October 21st There was close monitoring
    of the hurricane as it tracked across Cuba and
    then stalled over the Yucatan Peninsular in
  • ETA was either later Sunday or sometime on Monday
  • County Emergency Management Committee up and
    running throughout Florida
  • Saturday October 22nd Mandatory evacuations
    were order for the southern tip Florida Keys,
    and also from other low-lying areas and for those
    living in mobile home, and, while people were
    encouraged to go North, if they wanted there was
    an evacuation centre available at the University
    and in 2 other centres.
  • The tolls on the Interstate Highways were openned
    to relieve traffic jams.
  • Schools and government offices were close for the

Preparing for Wilma
  • By Sunday October 23rd about 50 refuges were
    open and manned
  • By Monday morning October 24th this had risen to
    123 refuges with 33,189 evacuees with 2,177
    Special Needs evacuees .
  • The number of hotel rooms available outside the
    areas of immediate danger are monitored and
    updated regularly
  • 380,000 people were already without power as the
    wind picked up
  • Conference calls with counties were to be
    conducted at 1115 hrs and 1715 hrs daily.
  • The National guard were out in Munroe, Collier,
    Dade and Broward.
  • Curfews were in place Munroe and Lee.

Preparing for the worst in Haiti
  • Basically they had not done anything. The last 2
    major earthquakes were 1860 and 1770. The
    building regulations were non-existent and most
    people lived in shanties that were not really
    legal anyway.
  • There was no practices, no plans for disaster
    management, no back-up supplies.
  • Besides which, they were still reeling from
    Hurricanes Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike in 2008 in
    which Haiti suffered over 1000 deaths, 593
    injured and 23,000 homes destroyed and more
    85,000 damaged. About 800,000 people were
    affected--8 of Haiti's total population.
  • The flood wiped out 70 of Haiti's crops,
    resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to
    malnutrition in the months following the storms.
    Damage was estimated at over 1 billion, which
    amounted to over 5 of GDP.
  • But when you examine what Haiti was like before
    all this, it is hardly surprising.

Haitian vital statistics
  • Ranks 149th of 182 countries on the Human
    Development Index.
  • 80 of the population lives on less than 2 a
  • An estimated 2.4 million people are food
  • Highest malnutrition rate in the regionmore than
    20 of children are chronically malnourished.
  • One-third of all babies are born underweight.
  • Western hemispheres highest maternal and infant
    mortality rates the highest HIV/AIDS rates
    outside sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Consistently ranked among the most corrupt
    countries in the world.
  • 60 of energy needs are met through use of
    charcoal, contributing to 98 percent

Immediate short term response to disasters
  • With all disasters, the initial response should,
    at best, be fairly similar, and grouped around
  • What does our well rehearsed plan say?
  • Who, what and where are the most immediate needs
    to save life?
  • What materials, resources and personnel are
    needed where?
  • Do we have them readily available and can we
    reach those who need it?
  • If not ask for help as soon as you know you do
    not have the resources to do it yourself.
  • What resources are needed to sustain life? Food,
    water, housing, etc?
  • Assess immediate needs for repair and put in
    place road and water repairs, communication
    networks etc.

Immediate short term response to disasters
  • The answer to these questions will vary from HIC
    to LIC.
  • For example, emergency housing could be plastic
    sheets in an LIC but this would be totally
    unacceptable in an HIC after Katrina for
    example many thousands were provided with mobile
    homes some still live in them!
  • After Wilma, there were comments that water still
    had to be boiled 10 days later - how dreadful!
    In Haiti, water is still delivered in tankers
    months later.
  • The availability of helicopters for examples will
    vary greatly from place to place vital if you
    are to deliver essential supplies when the roads
    have been destroyed.
  • Often for LICs, these essentials take days to be
    shipped in by foreign donor governments, the UN
    and NGOs and in some cases, the money to fund
    the supplies has to wait for appeals to be put
    out in HICs and the money to be given, to fund
    the purchase- the Pakistani monsoon floods in
    August 2010

Wilma short term response
  • Tuesday Morning
  • The RED areas were under local
    emergency powers.
  • The number of shelters and evacuees had not
    changed much
  • Boil water notices have been issued for several
  • 3,149,479 residents without power
  • State of Emergency has been declared
  • Roads, phones and buildings are being inspected

    prior to debris clearance and repair beginning
  • 1855 Trucks with Water and 250 trucks of ice are
    sent out, together with 2 Trucks Shelf Stable
    Meals (remember Katrina 4 days wasnt it?)
  • 9 Power generators had arrived
  • 8,320 tarps were on order temporary repairs for
    people homes

Make a note of the trucks
Wilma short term response
  • By Friday(28th ) Morning
  • Food, Water and Ice 553
    Trucks shipped to Points of Distribution
  • Water 168 Trucks
  • Ice 300 Trucks
  • Food 85 Trucks
  • General Shelters 22, Population 2,422
    132 special needs
  • Law Enforcement and Military Support
  • Florida National Guard 3,445
  • Law Enforcement Officers 960
  • Boiled water for Brevard, Broward, Charlotte,
    Collier, Glades/Hendry, Highlands, Indian River,
    Lee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee,
    Osceola County, Palm Beach.

How have things changed?
Wilma short term response
  • By Friday November 4th
  • Trucks
  • Water 18 Trucks
  • Ice  3 Trucks
  • Food 4 Trucks
  • Tarps 2 Truck (making 58 altogether)
  • Food stamp distribution points where anyone who
    had suffered loss of home/job could claim without
    the usual paperwork
  • Shops mostly open again.
  • But boiled water notices still in place but far
    fewer without power.

How have things changed?
Haiti short term disaster response
"Normally the response moves from search and
rescue and medical needs, to helping those who
have lost homes with shelter, to water sanitation
and food. Then comes more longer-term recovery
programmes, like re-building homes and offering
families micro-loans."
The Red Cross dispatched a logistics team from
the UK to create another entry point to Haiti, he
said. We need some kind of trucking system to
transfer goods into Haiti from the neighbouring
Dominican Republic
Easing the gridlock at the airport which has
blocking aid getting to the victims was now a
priority. The Americans sent in army personnel
and their equipment. Their outgoing priority was
to get their nationals out quickly
"Port-au-Prince airport is subject to
restrictions on fuel and handling equipment and
the port is badly damaged.
Haiti short term disaster response
Oxfam said its priority was "always" water and
sanitation. The charity is preparing to send up
to 10 tonnes of water, sanitation, health and
shelter equipment - valued at around 70,000 -
from its Oxford UK warehouse on Saturday
Equipment includes emergency sheeting for shelter
and latrines, water tubing to create pipes, water
purification chemicals and tablets and buckets to
enable people to carry and store water.
Kate Akhtar, senior emergency programme officer
for Care International, agreed that water and
sanitation were "key". It had 600,000 water
purification tablets and enough stocks of high
protein biscuits to feed 60,000 families.
Large parts of the Haitian capital have been
devastated OXFAM said staff already based in
Haiti had been providing shovels to clear rubble
and search for trapped victims, and 17
international humanitarian experts had arrived in
Haiti on Friday.
Haiti short term disaster response
"Urban areas are always difficult, but there is
so much deforestation in Haiti that it will be
difficult to source items to create shelter."
Communication was also a problem, with text
messaging the only way to communicate with their
staff, she said.
ActionAid said aid was "trickling in" but the
situation was "chaotic". A team of international
staff from ActionAid, including some from the UK
and Brazil, were travelling to Haiti and should
be in the country by Sunday.
Tearfund was sending a disaster assessment team
to Haiti over the weekend with a view to helping
in the medium- to long-term, but was already
working with partners on the ground.
As well as delivering shelter, food and sanitary
kits for women, ActionAid would provide
psycho-social support, a spokeswoman said.
Haiti short term disaster response
FOOD The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has
warned that while the relief effort in Haiti is
beginning to gain its footing, providing food for
more than two million people a day represents the
most complex task it has ever faced.
WATER There is an acute shortage of drinking
water. The water supply system, which before the
disaster only provided 40 of the population of
Port-au-Prince with clean water, has effectively
collapsed .
Relief agencies have tried to buy goods locally,
but local markets affected by the earthquake have
been slow to reopen, and Haiti's subsistence
farms have been unable to ramp up production.
This has forced the WFP to use nearly all of its
stores of food which do not require water.
Aid agencies are shipping in bottled water and
water purification tablets. But many people, have
complained that they have received little, if
any, of either.
Long term response to disasters
  • This involves 2 phases
  • 1. Completing any restorative work that cannot be
    done in the short-medium term, for example major
    reconstruction like road/rail reconstruction and
    helping to re-establish agriculture and other
  • 2. Planning for the future risk assessment,
    adjustment, improving prediction.

One of the reasons why Florida (and incidentally
New Zealand more recently) go off so lightly is
  • They had changed their planning laws.
  • Building have to be built to withstand locally
    expected disasters.

These homes concrete wall system starts with a
steel-reinforcing cage consisting of a 15cm
square steel mesh and vertical steel bars placed
at 1.2m inches on-centre.
When finished they look like this
Wilma examples of Forward planning
  • August 6, 2010
  • Five years later, the aftermath of Hurricane
    Wilma and other storms continues to drive forward
    city actions to prevent some of the power issues
    that followed that storm. At its July 22 meeting,
    the Coconut Creek City Commission approved a
    464,505 payment to Florida Power and Light for
    the second of three phases in a project to place
    a significant portion of utility lines in the
    city underground.
  • August 4, 2010
  • Parkland city officials have ensured that the
    city is prepared to deal with debris it would
    have to contend with in case of a hurricane
    strike. City officials unanimously decided in
    favour of having a temporary debris management
    site (TDMS) within the city Parkland has not had
    such a facility before. They later authorized
    staff to enter into a contr