Geography 312 (Natural Hazards)

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Geography 312 (Natural Hazards)

• Instructor Ian Hutchinson (RCB7226)ph
  778-782-3232 email ianh_at_sfu.ca
• Course email geog312-all_at_sfu.ca
• TAs Elizabeth Baird Andrew Perkins

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Geography 312 - Lecture 1

• Course outline - schedule, lectures,
  assignments, - text, grades
• Term project
• Course themes

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Lecture schedule

• The course schedule and all the Powerpoint
  lecture slides are available on the web. Go
  tohttp//www.sfu.ca/ianh/geog312/
• Thumbnail versions are available for purchase.
• The lectures are NOT taped.

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Tutorials/Assignments

• To preview the assignments go to the course web
  site. Printed versions of each assignment will
  be handed out prior to each tutorial.
• Suggested readings for each tutorial are
  available on the web site as pdfs
• Tutorial grades are based on participation in
  workshops and discussion groups. Assignments are
  for educational purposes they are not graded.

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Text, Grading.

• Text - Keller, E.A., Blodgett, R.H. Clague,
  J.J. 2008. Natural Hazards.
  Pearson Canada
• Grading Tutorial participation 20 Term
  project 30 Midterm exam 20 Final exam
  30

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Term project

• Choose a topic (check with TA)
• Keep a journal (notes, lists of sources, etc.)
• Prepare a poster in Powerpoint
• Copy the poster to a CD (along with your journal)

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The concept of natural hazards

• DefinitionEvents associated with
  normalgeophysical and biological processes that
  cause death, injury or loss of home, property or
  income.
• the intensity of the hazard may be influenced
  by human modifications of the landscape (e.g.
  deforestation and urbanization influence flood
  frequency and magnitudes) or climate (e.g. heat
  waves in urban areas).

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Source Emmanuelle Bournay UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Concept of hazard thresholds (e.g.
fatalities/damage per earthquake)
1000 100 10 1
10000 1000 100 10 1
Damage (M)
Deaths
1 10
Earthquake magnitude
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Natural Hazards

• From the preceding it follows thatNatural
  hazards are associated with extreme events in the
  normal operation of the planets geological,
  hydrological and ecological systems. Natural
  hazards are limited to inhabited areas (i.e.
  vulnerable settlements or economic
  infrastructure).

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Concept of vulnerability (e.g. fatalities in two
contrasting societies)
1000 100 10 1
Deaths
e.g. Peru, Iran?
e.g. California?
1 10
Earthquake magnitude
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The concept of risk
RISK HAZARD X VULNERABILITY
Hazard natural processes capable of causing
death and/or destruction Vulnerabilit
y social or economic sensitivity to
the effects of hazards
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Calculating risk
Example 1 same hazard contrasting
vulnerabilities
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake in south-central
California, on Dec. 22, 2003 7 dead, 50
injured because the event occurred in a
thinly inhabited area (low risk event)
Magnitude 6.5 earthquake in city of Bam (Iran)
on Dec. 26, 2003 40,000 dead, 30,000
injured much of the city destroyed (very
high risk event)
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Calculating risk
Example 2 contrasting hazards same risk
Severe snowfall in the Lower Mainland
Annual risk () Pblizzard X Cost
0.1 X 10 M? 1 M
Tunguska asteroid impact in the Lower Mainland
Annual risk () Pimpact X Cost
0.000001 X 100 G? 1 M?
Costs deaths, injuries, building collapse,
rescue, cleanup, lost production,
rebuilding, etc. (often very
difficult to assign a dollar value).
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Combating risk the five steps

• Assess characterize the hazard regime
• Mitigate reduce vulnerability
• Prepare educate warn evacuate
• Respond remove bodies, locate and treat
  survivors, destroy unstable structures
• Recover rebuild communities and
  infrastructure

Time
Pre- Post-
Effectiveness
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Combating risk roles

• Assessment natural and social scientists, (GEOG
  312)
• Mitigation engineers, etc.
• Preparation emergency managers, etc.
• Initial Response medics, etc.
• Recovery planners, etc.

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Assessment types of risk

• physical living in a hazardous area
• personal your age/gender/education influences
  your risk
• economic poverty reduces your options
• structural poor quality buildings and
  lifelines
• political limited access to information
  and/or resources
• institutional - your local, state or national
  government does not enforce
  regulations

all of these may apply!
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Hazard assessment
Natural scientists analyse the physical risks
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Assessing individual hazardse.g. hurricanes in
Atlantic Canada
Damage resulting from the high winds and heavy
rain of Hurricane Juan in Halifax, Nova Scotia,
Sept. - Oct. 2003
Photos CBC News archives
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Hazard assessment causes
Hurricane Juan, Sept. 28, 2003. Juan was an
exceptional storm. Why did it track directly
northward?
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Hazard assessment magnitude
Juan was forecast to reach Nova Scotia as a 65-
to 70-knot hurricane, but intensified to 85 knots
(a category 2 hurricane). Why?
Answer at http//www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrica
ne/juan/intensity_e.html
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Hazard assessment recurrence

• Halifax last suffered a direct hurricane strike
  in 1893. Do hurricanes in the Atlantic
  provinces therefore recur about once every 100
  years on average?
• Sources of information
• Instrumental records (100 yr record)
• Explorers logs, settlers diaries (400 yr
  record?)
• Micmac oral traditions (?)
• Biological evidence (e.g. downed trees several
  centuries?)
• Geological evidence (e.g. overwash deposits
  several millennia?)

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Hazard assessment will the future differ from
the past?
Tropical storms and hurricanes in the NW Atlantic
Graph Munich Re, 2004
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Hazard assessment focusing on place, not process

• Case studies of individual hazards do not reveal
  the hazardousness of a particular place
• multiple risks in any area
• risk assessment must integrate all of these
• local geography of danger

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A geography of danger for Halifax, Nova Scotia
might look like this
High risk Low risk
blizzards and ice storms extreme
temperatures fogs droughts pests and
diseases hurricanes tsunamis
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Towards a global geography of danger the
complexity of the task

• 20 of Earths land surface exposed to severe
  hazards
• gt30 of North American population live in
  hazard-prone areas
• Many areas (e.g. Indonesia, Taiwan, Guatemala)
  exposed to multiple severe hazards.

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N.B. excludes epidemics
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A global geography of danger natural catastrophe
s 2005-7
Earthquakes, eruptions Storms Droughts,
wildfires Floods
Source Munich Re Annual Reports
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A geography of dangernatural hazard fatalities
1991-2005
Annual number of deaths (thousands)
Mortality rate / M population
Data EM-Dat
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A geography of danger the known (e.g. Indonesia
data 1907-2004)
flood volcano quake
cyclone landslide drought
Source Center for Hazards and Risk Research,
Columbia University
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And the unexpected!
2004/12
2005/03
Tsunamis
2006/07

• the global analysis undertaken in these
  projects is clearly limited by issues of scale as
  well as by the availability and quality of data.
  
• Arthur Lerner-Lam (Columbia U.)

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Nimble systems anticipating unexpected hazards
On January 17, 1994, the costliest earthquake in
the history of the United States struck the Los
Angeles region, killing 57 people, leaving 20,000
homeless, and causing more than 20 billion in
damage to homes, public buildings, freeways, and
bridges. This magnitude 6.7 quake occurred 10
miles beneath the town of Northridge on a
previously unknown ramp-like ("thrust") fault not
visible at the Earth's surface. USGS Fact-Sheet
110-99

• ALL the earthquakes in California in the 1990s
  occurred on previously unknown faults!

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Assessingvulnerabilty
Source The Economist (February 7, 2004)
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Vulnerability assessment
Social scientists analyzethe vulnerability matrix
Environmental processes
Social impacts
Disaster response
Perception
Mitigation and education
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Investigating personal vulnerability perception
London, Ontario
Hewitt Burton (1974)
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Investigating personal vulnerability fatalities
by age
Age group
Indian Ocean tsunami
Bay of Bengalstorm surge
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
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Investigating personal vulnerability fatalities
by gender
WHY? differing strength? stamina? cultural
behaviours? (e.g. taboos - swimming? climbing
trees?)
ratio of femalemale deaths
However, the female fatality rate during
Hurricane Katrina was only slighter higher (4)
than that of the male population, and this was
likely a product of the greater number of women
in the over-60s age group.
Sumatra
India Data from Indian Ocean tsunami
(2004)
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Investigating economic vulnerability
Deaths from typhoons (1980-88)
wealth greater preparedness
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Investigating economic vulnerability (Hurricane
Charley, Fla., 2004Hurricane Katrina, La., 2005)
(Photo Associated Press)
poverty greater exposure to riskwealth
greater preparedness more flexible response?
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Changing patterns of vulnerability in the
developed world
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Structural-institutional vulnerability (e.g.
Marmara earthquake, Turkey, 1999)

• 17,000 dead 15 of buildings collapsed near
  epicentre (CA code but 70 illegal - amnesty for
  illegal buildings little professional liability
  corruption ubiquitous widespread on-site
  modifications, e.g. extra floors, of approved
  buildings) communications cut off nationwide
  power outage failure of political leadership.
• Photos Damaged buildings in the vicinity of
  Gölcük

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Investigating personal responses flight or
fight?
Reactions to the Okanagan Mountain Park fire of
August, 2003

• KR (aged 35) said hed rebuild in an instant.
  His familys home was razed. It was a fluke
  If you live on the ocean and a tidal wave
  comes, theyd say we shouldnt live on the ocean.

• KR (aged 22) said that shed never build in a
  forest again after her Kettle Valley home was
  reduced to ash

Quoted in The Province, Aug. 25, 2003 (p. A5)
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Investigating the agencies (e.g. post-Hurricane
Katrina)

• were the evacuation orders effective?
• were rescue efforts well-organized?
• did everyone in need find the shelters or aid
  centres?
• was aid distribution effective?

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Post-disaster recovery?(Hurricane Katrina )

• 2006
• population of New Orleans 50 of that prior to
  hurricane 45 fewer hospital beds 1/3 of
  schools still shut
• Rents increased by 40 in one year because of
  housing shortage suicide rate in city
  quadrupled almost 90 of refugees in Houston
  still unemployed
• Port of NO (1 port in US) operating at less than
  50 capacity 3 months after hurricane.
• August 2008 survey of residents of New Orleans
• 55 feel that there has been little or no
  progress in rebuilding neighborhoods.
• 59 feel that there has been little or no
  progress in making medical facilities and
  services more available.
• 72 said federal recovery money has been "mostly
  misspent."
• 58 said NO had a very serious" problem with
  political corruption.
• 84 face continuing health problems, and 65
  reported some sort of chronic condition or
  disability, up from 45 in 2006.

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Increasing global vulnerability?
Losses from natural disasters
US G
(Data Munich Re, 2001)
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Source Emmanuelle Bournay UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Information and perception (reported volcanic
eruptions, 1860-1980)
Has there been an overall increase in activity?
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GEOG 312
Blessings? Personal vulnerability? -
residence, workplace Career path? - community
vulnerability Empathy? - global vulnerability
Your command of nat.haz information
1 . 13 .. week