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DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

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DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT


1
DISASTER PREPAREDNESSA KEY ELEMENT OF
BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
2
A FOCUS ONWHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED FROM DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIOS
  • NOTE THE TECHNIQUE WAS EXPLAINED LAST LECTURE

3
EXAMPLES SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA,
MID-AMERICA, AND TOKAI AREA, JAPAN
4
NOTE HAZARD MAPSARE BASED ON A PROBABILISTIC
MODEL

5
NOTE RISK MODELING IS BASED ON HAZUS-MH(OR A
COMPARABLE MODEL)

6
(No Transcript)
7
MID-AMERICA GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MAP
8
PGA MAP JAPAN (GSHAP)
9
PURPOSE Information from disaster scenarios
will facilitate the adoption and implementation
of policies and plans to enable a city to protect
essential facilities and critical infrastructure
10
CITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
11
DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A CITYS (COMMUNITYS)
PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT
  • UNPREPARED
  • FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

12
GLOBAL GOALFROM UNPREPARED TO A STATE
OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND
ALL NATURAL HAZARDS
13
DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY
BREAKTHROUGHS
  • With a disaster scenario, a citys leaders can
    make the decisions on what it will do to control
    and reduce its perceived risks (e.g., by adopting
    and implementing policies such as building codes,
    and lifeline standards to protect, and retrofit
    and rehabilitation to protect and sustain).

14
DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY
BREAKTHROUGHS
  • Much of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency
    response and recovery phases will be eliminated
    if we can make the VIRTUAL REALITY of an
    EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO look like REALITY that we are
    prepared to cope with.

15
EXAMPLE ONE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
16
(SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA) EARTH-QUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO
  • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
  • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
  • HOW DEEP? WHEN?
  • THE DISASTER AGENTS?
  • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
  • EXPECTED DAMAGE?
  • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

17
SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA
  • ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE
    READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE BIG ONES RECUR
  • Source US Geological Survey

18
California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario
  • Major impact to large metropolitan areas
  • Consequences would eclipse Katrina
  • Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles
  • Highly populated areas - 36M
  • Significant earthquake risk throughout State

18
19
California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario
  • Tsunami risk
  • Mass Evacuation
  • Significant infrastructure impacts
  • Response problems due to roadway
    collapse/blockage
  • Estimated loss -- gt 400B

19
20
A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
  • Because of its location in the densely populated
    Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on
    the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the
    nation's biggest natural disasters.

21
HAYWARD FAULT ZONE
22
A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
  • A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects
    5 million people, and damages homes, schools,
    senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay
    bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

23
HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
24
IMPACTSSAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
  • A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will
    cause an estimated 210 billion dollars in
    damage.
  • The region's transportation infrastructure and
    water delivery systems will take a major hit.

25
EXAMPLE TWO EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR LOS ANGELES AREA
26
(LAS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO
  • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
  • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
  • HOW DEEP? WHEN?
  • THE DISASTER AGENTS?
  • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
  • EXPECTED DAMAGE?
  • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

27
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA
28
QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO
  • The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify
    the physical, social and economic consequences of
    a major earthquake in southern California , and
    in so doing, enable end users to identify what
    they can change nowbefore the earthquakein
    order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the
    inevitable earthquake occurs.

29
GROUND SHAKING 60 SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURES
30
IMPACTS
  • The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes
    about 1,800 deaths and 213 billion of economic
    losses.

31
IMPACTS
  • The estimates of about 1800 deaths and 213
    billion of economic losses indicate that much
    more retrofitting is still needed to protect and
    sustain.

32
EXAMPLE THREE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR MEMPHIS, TN AREA
33
(MEMPHIS, TN AREA) EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO
  • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
  • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
  • HOW DEEP? WHEN?
  • THE DISASTER AGENTS?
  • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
  • EXPECTED DAMAGE?
  • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

34
NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIOJUNE 2010 AND
MARCH 2008
  • ASSUMPTIONS M7.7
  • 200 AM
  • http//mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html

35
NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
  • The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which covers parts
    of eight states Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas,
    Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and
    Tennessee, was the source of four great
    earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-1812.

36
ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO
  • Damage and loss estimates and the planning
    assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of
    a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 200 am.

37
ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO
  • The epicenter is assumed to be located
    approximately 33 miles North North-West of
    Memphis, TN.

38
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
  • Consequences eclipse Katrina
  • impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles
  • 44M people in eight-State region
  • Multiple jurisdictions and Governors

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
38
39
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
  • Significant loss of infrastructure
  • Response problems hindered by long aftershock
    sequence
  • Estimated loss -- 300B
  • Severe weather evacuation issues

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
39
40
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
  • Nearly 86,000 total casualties
  • 3,500 fatalities
  • Estimated loss -- 300B

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
40
41
SCENARIO IMPACTS
  • 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and
    100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong
    ground shaking.

42
SCENARIO IMPACTS
  • Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5
    MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste
    disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

43
SCENARIO IMPACTS
  • Transportation systems (highways, bridges,
    airports, river traffic) throughout the region
    will lose their function.

44
SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
  • The State of Tennessee will incur the highest
    level of damage and social impacts, with over
    250,000 buildings moderately or severely
    damaged.

45
SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
  • Over 260,000 people will likely be displaced and
    over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities)
    are expected.

46
SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
  • Total direct economic losses surpass 56 billion.

47
EXAMPLE FOUR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR TOKYO, JAPAN AREA
48
(TOKYO, JAPAN AREA) EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO
  • WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
  • HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
  • HOW DEEP? WHEN?
  • THE DISASTER AGENTS?
  • VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
  • EXPECTED DAMAGE?
  • EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

49
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOTOKAI,
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE160 KM FROM TOKYO
  • PREPARING FOR AN EMINENT DISASTER

50
REGIONAL MAP
51
LOCATION OF TOKAI
52
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS
  • The section along Tokai, which has a recurrence
    interval of 100-150 years for large- magnitude
    earthquakes, has not ruptured since 1854.

53
LOSSES TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
  • Estimated deaths between 7,900 and 9,200
    depending on the amount of advance warning people
    have, the time of day when it occurs, and the
    tsunami.
  • Property damage ---as much as 310 billion.

54
IMPACTS TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
  • Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations
  • Structures susceptible to quake-related fires
    58,402 specific houses

55
TODAYS POLICY PREPARE FOR THE TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
NOW
  • The precise area along the Pacific coast-- about
    160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is
    expected to be affected has been delineated by
    scientific studies, and is, by law, the focus of
    intensive preparations to become earthquake
    resilient..

56
POLICY PROVIDE ADVANCE WARNING TO THE PEOPLE
  • The Government of Japan is currently deploying
    strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record
    PRE-QUAKE slip and then provide as much advance
    warning as possible.

57
FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO PUBLIC POLICY
  • A disaster scenario facilitates dialogue on
    the best ways to form public policy for
    protecting the citys essential facilities and
    critical infra-structure, another key element of
    disaster resilience.

58
THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY
  • WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G.,
    FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)
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