The%20Impact%20of%20Global%20Warming%20on%20Western%20Australia%20a%20presentation%20for%20CWA,%2025%20July%202007

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The Impact of Global Warming on Western
Australiaa presentation for CWA, 25 July 2007

• Dr Ray Wills
• Manager, Sustainability Services, SMEC
• Chair, WA Sustainable Energy Association
• Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
• School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The
  University of Western Australia

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A changing climate for business and the community

• The science is in, the globe is warming, and we
  must both mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and
  rapidly prepare for adaptation to climate change.
  
• A raft of immediately accessible and affordable
  solutions to reduce greenhouse emissions and
  provide alternative sources of energy are already
  in our possession - we can act today.
• Some businesses and members of the community are
  understandably nervous about the economic
  ramifications of measures to reduce greenhouse
  gas emissions in part because not enough work has
  been done to assist them understand these issues.

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Sustainability in a changing climate for business
and the community

• McDonald's Corp. is blogging on the environment.
• Starbucks Corp. has a green-themed online game.
• Hilton Hotels Corp. linked manager pay to green
  outcomes.
• All corporates say they have worked for years or
  even decades on pro-environment strategies and
  corporate social responsibility, but growing
  awareness of global warming among consumers is
  changing the way they work.
• Businesses in green buildings report improved
  productivity, better staff retention, fewer sick
  days, millions of dollars in energy savings and a
  reduced environmental footprint.
• California Governor Schwarzenegger and New York
  City mayor Bloomberg The New Action Heroes doing
  the things that gridlocked Washington won't.

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Greenhouse and global warming

• Greenhouse theory
• Basis first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824
• Quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896
• Greenhouse of earths blanket - average earth
  temperature about 15C otherwise would be -18C
• Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960s
• Debate late 1970s, Rio 1992, Kyoto
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1988
• Warming of climate is now unequivocal global
  increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting
  of snow and ice, and rising sea level.
• The enhanced greenhouse effect is empirically and
  theoretically well-established.

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Historical global temperatures
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Drivers of climate change

• Solar forcing and the Milankovitch mechanism can
  influence environmental change and global
  climates.
• Variability in the electromagnetic and
  particulate output of the Sun can cause changes
  in the Earth's upper atmosphere.
• Milankovitch cycles - the orbit of the earth has
  a number of pronounced and predictable
  perturbations

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Drivers of climate change

• Plate tectonics

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Drivers of climate change

• Volcanic activity and meteor impacts cause
  physical and/or chemical changes in the
  atmosphere and induce global changes in climate.

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Drivers of climate change
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Measuring change

• Many methods that deliver proxy data on
  environmental change, and techniques for dating
  and comparing records - here are a few
• Geomorphological and geological indications of
  climate change
• Biological growth rates - Coral, tree rings
• Accumulation rates
• Ice - physical properties (thickness, crystals
  for temperature), particulates, ECM, gases,
  isotopes - (volcanoes and pollution).
• non-ice proxies, including sediments

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Geological evidence

• Late Cretaceous global climate warmer than
  present.
• No ice at the Poles.
• Dinosaurs migrated between the Warm Temperate and
  Cool Temperate Zones as the seasons changed.

• http//www.scotese.com/lcretcli.htm

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History of world temperature

• Late Carboniferous to Early Permian (315 mya --
  270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600
  million years when both atmospheric CO2 and
  temperatures were as low as they are today
  (Quaternary Period ).

http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_cl
imate.html
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Out of Eden
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Greenhouse gases
Since 1751 roughly 305 billion tonnes of carbon
released Half of emissions have occurred since
mid 1970s
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Instrumental Record - Temperature
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Instrumental Record - temperature

• Satellites have been measuring the temperature of
  the troposphere since 1979.

• Better data - real average
• Best data late 1980s
• Best computers 1998

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Evidence of global warming
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Sea level changes
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About WA

• Spatial variationsin sea level

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Instrumental record - temperature
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IPCC Assessment Report 4
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Temperature
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About WA

• WA is arguably the first Western economy with
  measurable economic impact through climate change

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About WA

• Annual inflow to Perths surface water sources
  dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL
• Source Water Corporation 2006.

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About WA

• WA is arguably the first Western economy with
  measurable economic impact through climate change
• WA SW has already suffered a 20 decline in
  rainfall in the last 30 years - effects on runoff
  more serious with 50 drop in steam flow to
  reservoirs - and a further 20 reduction
  predicted, and this is thought to have already
  started at the end of the 1990s.
• Value of lost income in water sales in dams is
  estimated at 1 billion in WA through water
  restrictions and additions to infrastructure
  (WaterCorp) - and almost another billion with
  Desal II.

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About WA

• A warming of 1.0C is sufficient to move climate
  belts about 150 km south - thus a regional change
  of temperature of 2 C is likely to have a
  serious impact on most life forms, and on most
  ecosystems and agricultural areas.

Changes by 2040
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About WA

• With global warming and drying of the south coast
  in WA, areas with temperature increases gt 2 C
  combined with a decline in rainfall consistently
  below 400 mm will lead to the loss of many
  species of Proteaceae in WA's SW - including
  theiconic Banksia and Dryandra, - will die
  out.
• As will the animals that live on them.

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About WA

• Climate is a key determinant of agriculture and
  changes in climate will impact on all agriculture
  - both crops and livestock.
• Rising temperatures will cause a shift in
  budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier
  harvest dates, lower crop quality.
• Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted
  and northern wheatbelt likely to disappear while
  production in the remainder greatly reduced,
  wiping out most of an industry worth more than 2
  billion.

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About WA

• Tree crops are particularly sensitive because of
  longer lead times to reach production.
• Changes to stone fruit also be impacted as fruit
  production requires chilling to create bud set.
• Dairy and beef cattle industry will face
  decreased pasture production.
• Honey industry will face impact as native
  ecosystems and agricultural systems change, with
  honey production on the decline.

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About WA

• Climate is a key influence in grape selection.
• Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions
  will change the way vineyards operate and reduce
  the wine crop.
• WA produces around 5 of all Australian wine, but
  produces about 25 of wine in super-premium and
  ultra-premium categories.
• Margaret River climate will be closer to that of
  Perth, cabernet sauvignon and chardonnay will be
  lost and varieties suited to warmer climates such
  as shiraz.
• Swan Valley will no longer be suitable for vines.

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About WA

• Sea levels up 18.5 cm in last century
• Predictions this will at least triple (more than
  48 cm) over the next ninety years.
• Potential for 40 cm rise by 2040 and 1 metre sea
  level rise by end of this century - not an
  extreme estimate - within the bounds of
  scientifically-based predictions, including
  latest CSIRO models.

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Sea level changes
Mandurah at 1m sea level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
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Sea level changes
Mandurah at 7m sea level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
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Sea level changes
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About WA

• Coastal freshwater swamps will go saline.
• Fringing reefs currently a barrier protecting
  parts of Perths coastline will be further
  submerged offering less protection and allowing
  bigger waves passage to previously sheltered
  beaches.

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About WA

• The Indian Ocean has warmed an average 0.6C
  since 1960 - only another 0.4C is needed for
  widespread and intense coral bleaching. The
  largest warming occurred off Northwest WA.
• Bleaching of coral from higher ocean temperatures
  will kill parts of the Ningaloo Reef just as the
  Great Barrier Reef.

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About WA

• Other WA impacts will be the same as around the
  world
• Sea level rise and storm surge
• Temperature minimum rise faster than maximum
• Changing rainfall and extreme storm events
• Health and safety
• Emergency response function
• National security
• Global warming will act as a threat multiplier
• International security

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Global changes
http//www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf
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Economic risk of change
Climate Risk
Sector Level
Political / Regulatory
Physical Risk
Supply Chain
Company Level
Staff
Litigation
Reputation / Brand
Products / Technology
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Litigation

• Negligence is common law if you have knowledge
  that something is at risk and fail to act, you
  are negligent.

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Portfolio of technology options

• Improved end-use efficiency
• Higher efficiency combustion technologies
• Fuel switching
• New automotive technologies
• Decentralized power generation
• Affordable renewable technologies
• Wind
• Solar thermal
• Solar photovoltaic
• Geothermal
• Tidal and waves
• Capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide from
  power plants or the atmosphere

Source Graeme Pearman - GP Consulting
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About WA

• We will need
• new crops, new cropping systems
• new fuels (grow your own), new technology
• people willing to change and innovate
• If we were raising kangaroos instead of cattle we
  would have lower methane emissions and a more
  drought tolerant stock.

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To market, to market

• State and Territory Governments - in absence of
  Australian Government - have agreed to a national
  emissions trading scheme (NETS) to be initiated
  by 2010.
• Federal Labor opposition have indicated they will
  join if they win office.
• PM Howard has stated an emissions trading scheme
  to be implemented Federally before 2012
  comparable but more broadly based than State
  proposal.
• Establishing certified carbon certificates for
  trading.

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To market, to market

• Carbon emissions trading markets will be part of
  the inevitable response to attempting to slow
  global warming and carbon will become the single
  largest traded commodity in the world.
• The price of carbon will impact on energy
  production and will make a range of different
  renewable energy projects immediately
  commercially viable.
• The future of energy in Australia and for the
  globe is an array of sustainable energy solutions
  incorporating low or zero emissions energy
  generation in whatever form that ultimately
  proves most economically competitive.

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The latest news
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Greenhouse gases
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Greenhouse gases

• CO2 emission per capita per year per country

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The latest news
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Responding to climate change

• The challenge of climate change should be the
  catalyst for changing the way we think about and
  plan infrastructure, changing the way we use
  energy and in so doing, future proofing our
  economy.
• A key element of managing this change is an
  integrated, whole-of-government approach to
  tackle the enormous challenge that global warming
  poses to Australia and the world.
• Governments must put frameworks in place that
  take an integrated approach to develop
  significant, forward-thinking initiatives and
  create budgets that promote energy efficiency
  across government, business and the community.

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Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA 1367.5 JUN
2007
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Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA 1367.5 JUN
2007
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Popular accounts

• Tim Flannery - The Weather Makers
• Fred Pearce - The Last Generation How Nature
  Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change.
• last generation to be able to rely on a stable
  climate.
• Rupert Murdoch has signed on
• News Corp would be carbon neutral across all
  of its businesses by 2010 Climate change poses
  clear catastrophic threats. We might not agree on
  extent but we certainly can't afford the risk of
  inaction.".
• Al Gores - An Inconvenient Truth (documentary by
  Davis Guggenheim)
• we need to solve the climate crisis. It's not
  a political issue it's a moral issue. We have
  everything we need to get started, with the
  possible exception of the will to act. That's a
  renewable resource. Let's renew it.

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Impact of warming

• Past global warmings tell us what to expect from
  future climates and help us get ready.

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Impact of warming

• Past global warmings tell us what to expect from
  future climates and help us get ready.
• The evidence is overwhelming human-induced
  climate change is real.
• Consequences will be felt by all - we all must
  act now.

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The inconvenient truth - time has run out for
solutions that are simply convenient.
Dr Ray Wills Manager, Sustainability Services,
SMEC ray.wills_at_smec.com.au Chair, WA
Sustainable Energy Association chair_at_wasea.com.au
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow School of Earth
and Geographical Sciences, The University of
Western Australia rwills_at_segs.uwa.edu.au
Israel Kamakawiwo'ole