Accelerated Global Warming and Emerging Trends in Fisheries Biomass Yields in LMEs: the Cap and Sust

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Accelerated Global Warming and Emerging Trends in
Fisheries Biomass Yields in LMEs the Cap and
Sustain Approach

• Plenary Presentation
• Global Forum, Hanoi
• Dr. Ken Sherman,
• GEF LME Programme and NOAA
• 9 April 2008, 1110-1120am (panel 7)

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5 MODULES WITH INDICATORS
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Benguela Current LME mean annual sea surface
temperature and annual SST anomalies, 1957-2006,
based on Hadley climatology, courtesy of I.
Belkin.
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Climate Warming and Fisheries Biomass Yields
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Primary Productivity trends (1998-2006) in the
Bay of Bengal, Hudson Bay, Humboldt Current and
Red Sea LMEs

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Comparison of 5-yr. mean annual fisheries biomass
yield with 9-yr. mean annual primary production
in fast warming (red), moderately warming
(yellow) and slower warming (green) LMEs. The
two blue circles represent cooling LMEs.
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Fisheries biomass yield trends (metric tons) in
fast warming cluster 1 Norwegian Sea (LME 21),
Faroe Plateau (LME 60), and Iceland Shelf (LME
59).
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Fisheries biomass yield trends (metric tons) in
fast warming cluster 2 North Sea (LME 22),
Celtic Biscay (LME 24) and Iberian Coastal (LME
26)
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Arabian Sea (LME32), Bay of Bengal (LME34),
Somali Current(LME30), Agulhas Current (LME31),
Indonesian Sea (LME38), North Australia (LME39),
Northwest Australia (LME46), West-Central
Australian (LME44), Southwest Australian (LME43)
and Southeast Australian (LME42).
INDIAN OCEAN Fisheries biomass yields (metric
tons) in slow warming cluster

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Precautionary Cap and Sustain Approach

• NPFMC (North Pacific Fisheries Management
  Council), Gulf of Alaska and East Bering Sea
  Large Marine Ecosystems
• Alaska pollock
• Pacific salmon

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Cap and Sustain Strategy

• Fisheries biomass yields are increasing in LMEs
  adjacent to developing countries (2000-2004)
  they are at a level of
• 7.6 million tons in fast warming LMEs
• 12.1 mil. t. in moderate warming LMEs
• 12.2 mil. t. in slow warming LMEs.
• The total of 31.9 million tons represents 49 of
  the global fisheries biomass yield

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Cap and Sustain Strategy

• 2-tier system
• Determine overall ecosystem-wide total fisheries
  biomass yield cap
• Individual species are identified and prioritized
• TAC levels are determined for each species to
  sustain, with sub totals not to exceed the
  overall cap
• A margin of the biomass is assigned to account
  for by-catch.