Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden

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2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans
Steve Goodman, John Mecikalski, Chris Darden
Science Advisory Committee 21 November
2005 Huntsville, AL
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2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans

• Thunderstorm Forecasts/Lightning Threat
• Analysis of 1-3 May 2004 Florida WRF 2 km
  simulations
• Analysis of 22 April 2005 Alabama event with OU 2
  km WRF
• Complete 10 December 2004 Alabama Case study
• Complete P. Gatlin M.S. thesis
• Develop AWIPS lightning threat product and
  assessment (LMANLDN)
• North Alabama WES Cases
• Develop more extensive training case for other
  WFOs based on the 6 May 2003 outbreak
• Quantitative analysis of archived WES severe
  event cases
• NCEP SPC 2006 Spring Program participation/collabo
  ration
• Pending LMA Extensions, Proposals
• DC LMA Demo- NWS OST, Eastern Region
• MRC Miss.LMA network- NASA Applied Sciences
• NCAR Autonowcaster/4DWX at RTTC (LMA ARMOR)

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2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans

• Convective Initiation (CI) Nowcasts (0-1 h)
• Development of CI assessment survey for April
  2006 assessment
• Continue to (automatically) provide 30-min CI
  fields to NWS via AWIPS
• Provide second/third NWS training for these
  fields in 2006
• Pending Satellite-based Lightning Initiation (LI
  30-min2 h) Nowcasts
• Begin LI nowcasts data transfer in early 2006
  technique development completed
• UAH Graduate student involvement with NWS
  Huntsville
• Development of LI assessment survey
• GLM R3
• Collaboration with NSSTC Team
• Collaboration with ORA Coop Inst. (CIRA, CIMMS,
  CICS)
• Lightning Data Assimilation
• NASA NRC Post-Doc proposal pending (Themis
  Chronis/UCONN)

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2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans

• Marine and Coastal Weather Assessments
• Value of supplemental WRF forecast products (QPF,
  T, q) on coastal weather forecasts
• Assess value of real time AMSR-E to monitor
  off-shore convective systems
• Meetings
• AMS Annual Meeting 29 January, Atlanta, GA
• NPOESS Training Development Workshop, May 2006
• Southern Thunder Alliance Meeting, July 2006
  Cocoa Beach