The First Year SFMR Surface Wind Observations from AFRC WC-130J Aircraft: Impact on Operational Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings

1
The First Year SFMR Surface Wind Observations
from AFRC WC-130J Aircraft Impact on Operational
Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings

• Peter G. Black (1), Jonathan Talbot (2), Ivan
  Popstefanija (3),
• Eric Uhlhorn (4), James Franklin (5)
• (1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc.,
  Monterey, CA
• (2) AFRC, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron,
  Keesler AFB, MS
• (3) ProSensing, Inc., Amherst, MA
• (4) NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami,
  FL
• (5) NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center,
  Miami, FL
• Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
• Charleston, South Carolina
• 3-7 March, 2008

2
2007 SFMR Advisory Statistics

• Atlantic TCs
• Number 16
• Depressions Only 2
• Sub-Tropical Cyclones 1
• Tropical Storms 8
• Hurricanes 6
• Major Hurricanes 2 (both CAT5)

• Satellite-based Advisories 214
• Aircraft-based Advisors 56
• SFMR-based advisories 25
• NOAA 3
• AFRC 22

3
2007
4
UNDER SAMPLING ISSUE
TA Doppler True Vmax vs. along-track Vmax
5
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CONCLUSIONS

• A 9-year SFMR data set from 1998-2006, where SFMR
  mainly not assimilated in real time, shows that
  Best Track estimates of maximum wind
  over-estimated SFMR maximum wind estimates by
  10-17.
• However, in 2007 when SFMR assimilated in real
  time, half the points are overestimates and half
  are underestimates, suggesting on average that
  Best Track and SFMR estimates are now aligned
  with each other.
• With 3-5 AFRC aircraft flying in 2007, 31
  inter-comparison cases were amassed, plus 3 from
  NOAA aircraft, whereas 9 years were required for
  54 comparison cases in developmental data set. In
  2008, all 10 AFRC WC-130J aircraft will be flying
  SFMRs in addition to the two NOAA P3s as well as
  the NOAA G-IV.
• We are at a historic turning point in history for
  improving hurricane intensity observation and
  forecasting where the capability to observe the
  TC surface wind domain matches the improved
  coupled model capabilities to assimilate and
  model it. This alignment should provide the next
  best opportunity for improving hurricane
  intensity and structure forecasting.