Hospitality Industry Managerial Accounting HRT 374 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Hospitality Industry Managerial Accounting HRT 374 PowerPoint presentation | free to view - id: e6352-ZDc1Z



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Hospitality Industry Managerial Accounting HRT 374

Description:

History may or may not repeat itself. Cannot foresee the unforseeable-9/11. Time series ... Reservations plus walk-ins. Prior period adjusted by intuition. Catering ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:88
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 21
Provided by: Richard96
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Hospitality Industry Managerial Accounting HRT 374


1
Hospitality Industry Managerial AccountingHRT 374
  • Chapter 9
  • Forecasting Methods

2
Implicit vs. Explicit
  • Implicit
  • Unsystematic
  • Imprecise
  • Difficult to evaluate
  • Explicit
  • Systematic
  • Reliable
  • Accurate
  • Easier to evaluate

3
Personnel responsible
  • Sales Director--
  • Front Office Manager
  • Food Beverage Manager
  • Director of Catering
  • Controller
  • General Manager
  • Management team

4
Nature of forecasting
  • Deals with future
  • Uncertain
  • Historical data
  • Not accurate
  • Deviations

5
Underlying pattern of data
  • Trends
  • Seasonal
  • Cyclical

Constant movement up or down
Summer, Fall, Winter, Spring
Weekdays, Weekends, Holidays
6
Overview of forecasting methods
  • Informal--
  • Naive
  • Moving averages
  • Formal--
  • Quantitative (causal and time series)
  • Qualitative forecasting methods

7
Naive
  • Last period plus a percentage

8
Moving averages page 407-408
  • Average over a period of time

9
Causal forecasting
  • Regression Analysis
  • Single regression

10
Limitations
  • Need data
  • History may or may not repeat itself
  • Cannot foresee the unforseeable-9/11

11
Time series
  • Always assumes a pattern over time
  • Example, every December, sales drop 30

12
Qualitative (limited numbers)
  • Human judgment
  • Market research
  • Jury of executive opinion
  • Sales force estimates
  • Delphi technique

13
Selecting a forecasting method
  • Effectiveness
  • Cost
  • Frequency forecast will be updated
  • Turnaround required
  • Size and complexity
  • Forecasting skills of personnel
  • Purpose of forecasts

14
Examples of short term lodging forecasting
  • Rooms
  • Reservations plus walk-ins
  • Prior period adjusted by intuition
  • Food
  • Reservations plus walk-ins
  • Prior period adjusted by intuition
  • Catering
  • Booked plus estimate of additional sales
  • Prior period adjusted by intuition

15
Cases
  • ARAMARK
  • Pizza Hut
  • Hilton Hotels

16
Project customer counts for 2004 if customers
increase by 5 prices increase by 50 cents
  • 2003 Customers Avg dinner
    price
  • Oct 2,000 6.95
  • Nov 2,400 7.15
  • October 2,000 x 1.05 2,100
  • 6.95 0.50 7.45
  • 2,100 x 7.45 15,645
  • What is November?
  • 2,400 x 1.05 2,520
  • 7.15 0.50 7.65
  • 7.65 x 2,520 19,278

17
Chapter 9 Homework
  • Problems 1, 3, 4

18
Problem 1
  • January 3,000 x 1.05 3,150
  • 7.95 0.50 8.45
  • 3,150 x 8.45 26,615.50
  • February
  • 2,750 x 1.05 x (8.05 0.50) 24,688
  • March
  • 3,050 x 1.05 x (8.00 0.50) 27,221.25

19
Problem 3
  • June 2004
  • (4,200 x 1/6) (4,140 x 1/3) 4,250 x ½)
  • (4,200 x .17) (4,140 x .33) (4,250 x .5)
  • 714 1,366
    2,125 4,205
  • July 2004 5,475
  • August 2004 5,080

20
Problem 4
  • Mon 3,204 / 5 641
  • Tue 3,090 / 5 618
  • Wed 3,155 / 5 631
  • Thur 3192 / 5 638
  • Fri 3,722 / 5 744
About PowerShow.com