Realists say Anarchyselfhelpsecurity dilemmapursuit of power

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Realists say Anarchy?self-help?security
dilemma?pursuit of power

• How do we secure peace or at least prevent war?

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Balance of Power

• peace most likely to be maintained when military
  power is distributed so that no single power or
  bloc can dominate
• alliances form to counter an aggressor
• size principle competing alliances are roughly
  equal in power (see-saw)
• assumes youre dealing with states with the
  desire to survive

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Balance of Power rules

• Stay vigilant for emerging threats/opportunities
• Seek allies when you cannot match the armaments
  of your adversaries
• Flexible alliances made only in short-term
  self-interest but dont trust them
• Oppose any state that seeks hegemony join with
  the weak against the strong
• Be moderate in victory dont destroy the enemy

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Problem 1 Bandwagoning

• Why ally with weak states if I can ally with
  strong ones?
• Bandwagoning aligning with the strongest actor
  to get yourself more power
• Criticism not a rational decision because it
  requires that you trust someone who has nothing
  to lose or gain from your alliance

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Problem 2 definitional problems

• What is the definition of power?
• What happens when countries define power
  differently and are, therefore, playing the
  game with very different understandings of the
  rules?
• How does the accumulation of power lead to peace?
• This uncertainty leads to

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Problem 3 the arms race

• Rival powers build up their militaries in an arms
  race
• Its not having the arms that gives you power, it
  the willingness to use them!
• Coercive diplomacy tricky because its based on
  perception/intentions rather than actual numbers
• Balance of Threat Theory Countries will align
  against whichever country is seen as posing the
  biggest threat, which is not necessarily the most
  powerful country

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Problem 4 false assumptions

• Assumption 1 decision-makers try to avoid risk
• Not if Im on the bottom of the heap anyway I
  have more to gain than lose
• Assumption 2 unitary states are the primary
  actors in the system
• States arent the only threat to the system

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Hegemonic stability theory

• countries are ultimately going to make alliance
  decisions based on their best interests and
  that is based on whether or not they are
  satisfied with the way things are (status quo)
• Degree of satisfaction satisfied states want to
  maintain the status quo, dissatisfied states want
  to change it
• degree of power - great powers, middle-range
  powers or weak powers

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• Powerful and satisfied
• Powerful and dissatisfied
• Weak and satisfied
• Weak and dissatisfied
• Hegemon a powerful and satisfied country able to
  control the actions of others countries either
  align with the hegemonic power to maintain status
  quo or against it to revise the system
• A concert is formed when the big boys ally in a
  cooperative agreement to jointly manage the
  system the power bloc is so strong that no one
  can oppose it?world peace

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Figure 9.1

• Arms Control
• agreements to prevent escalating arms races by
  limiting the number types of weapons that
  states can have (not disarmament!)
• Bilateral agreements between 2 states, like
  during the Cold War
• Multilateral agreements between multiple states,
  like the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

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The Problem with Arms Control

• Agreements mostly regulate obsolete armaments
  (youre not giving up your new secret weapon!)
• Ceiling set so that you dont have to get rid of
  the ones you have, you just cant make any more
  of these outdated weapons
• Limitations on one type of weapon lead to growth
  in new technology elsewhere
• No one will voluntarily give up the weapons that
  work really well for them (antipersonnel
  landmines)
• Can you really trust someone to do what they say
  they will (or wont) do?

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If power politics is true, then what?(the
Realist view of IR)

• Be ready for war at all times
• Remain Vigilant No state is to be trusted
  further than its national interest
• Avoid Moralism Standards of right and wrong
  apply to individuals, not states in world
  affairs amoral actions are sometimes necessary
  can produce positive results.
• Remain Involved and Actively Intervene
  Isolationism is not an alternative to active
  global involvement.

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(is this sounding familiar?)

• Protect with Arms Strive to increase military
  capabilities, and fight rather than submit to
  subordination.
• Preserve the Balance Do not let any state or
  alliance become predominant unless its you.
• Prevent arms races from resulting in military
  inferiority with rivals Negotiate agreements
  with competitors to maintain a favorable military
  balance.

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US Hegemony

• Unipolarity following the dissolution of the
  Soviet Union in 1991, some say the United States
  emerged as the worlds greatest superpower
  (others disagree)
• Either way, eventually unipolarity will give way
  to a new configuration of power in the world
  system

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• NATO vs.USSR
• Post Cold War former Warsaw Pact members join
  NATO
• NATO turns into a 26-member security regime led
  by the US interests

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After US hegemony... Then what?

• Bi-polarity US vs. China
• Multipolarity US, China, Russia, Japan EU?
• In concert or conflict?