NOAA

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NOAA Systems Integration

• Scott Rayder
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  NOAAChief of Staff
• November 1st, 2007

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NOAAs Vision
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NOAAs Mission
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NOAA Funding Trends
( in Billions)

In FY03, the House did not report or pass an
SJC appropriations bill. The House-Introduced
bill total is used here.
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Key Legislation
Aquaculture

• Coastal Zone Management Act
• Coral Reef Ecosystems Conservation Amendments
  Act
• National Marine Sanctuaries Amendment Act
• National Offshore Aquaculture Act
• NOAA Organic Act
• Hydrographic Services Improvement Act
• Marine Mammal Protection Amendments Act
• Cooperative Conservation of Marine, Estuarine,
  Coastal, and Riverine Habitat Act

Florida Keys Sanctuary
Tide Gauges
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Recent Accomplishments

• Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Marine National
  Monument
• Reauthorized Magnuson-Stevens Act
• GOES-N Satellite Launched
• Dart II Buoys
• Ocean Research Priority Plan
• Administrator Awards

Endangered Hawaiian Monk Seal
GOES-N Launch
DART II Buoy
NWHI Marine National Monument
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NOAA 200th Celebration Foundations Laid,
Legacies to Carry Forward
U.S. Survey of the Coast1807
U.S. Weather Bureau1870
OAR1955
U.S. Commission on Fish and Fisheries1871
Dr, Susan Solomon
NESDIS1958
NPOESS
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NOAA Workforce
Of NOAAs 12557 employees 8292 have Bachelors
degrees 3638 have Masters degrees 1047 have
Ph.Ds.
58 of NOAAs Workforce are in scientific and
technical occupations
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Retirement Eligibility in 2009 (GS 13)
During 20092012 approximately 50 of the
retirement eligible employees will retire
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GEOSSGlobal Earth Observation System of Systems

• 72 Members
• 46 International Organizations
• A distributed system of systems
• Improves coordination of strategies
  observation systems
• Links all platforms in situ, aircraft,
  satellite networks
• Identifies gaps in our global capacity
• Facilitates exchange of data information
• Improves decision-makers abilities to address
  pressing policy issues

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Value of Earth Observations

• Better Information for Better Decision Making
• Prediction
• Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Niño
  forecasts are conservatively estimated at
  450-550M/year
• 25 of Earths biological productivity an
  estimated 80-90 of global commercial fish catch
  is concentrated in coastal zones
• Prevention
• More than 90 of natural disaster-related deaths
  occur in developing countries.
• Preparedness
• More than 50 of the worlds population lives
  within 60 km of the shoreline this could rise to
  75 by the year 2020

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NOAAs Hurricane Research Operations
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National Hurricane Centers
National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida Central
Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii Joint
Typhoon Warning Center Honolulu, Hawaii
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National Hurricane CentersAreas of Responsibility
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Tropical Cyclones 1851-2005
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Hurricane Forecast Flow Chart
Observations
Models
Forecast
NOAA Unit
All Buoys and CMAN
NOAA/NWS/NDBC
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft WP-3Ds G-IV WC-130s

NOAA/NMAO NOAA/NMAO USAF Reserve

Satellites POES GOES SSM/I QuikSCAT TRMM AQUA
NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NESDIS DOD NASA NASA NASA

Atmospheric Soundings, ACARS, PIREPS, and ASOS,
WSR-88D
NOAA/NWS

NOAA/NWS
Ships of Opportunity
Forecasters at NHC assess All observations plus
model output. 16 models are at NHC (4 of which
are from NOAA)
NOAA/NOS
NOAA dynamical models HWRF, GFS, GFDL
NAM Statistical dynamical models BAM, CLIPER,
LBAR, NHC90, SHIPS, SHIFOR, SLOSH, R-CLIPER

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Tide Gauges
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Research NOAA/OAR/GFDL NOAA/OAR/AOML NOAA/NESDIS
OAR, CIMSS, CIRA

Non-NOAA dynamical models NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC CPHC Plus HPC as a backup
Forecast Issued by NHC

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Observational Tools
Dropsonde
Doppler Radar
Phased Array Radar
Geostationary (GOES 13) Satellite
NOAA Gulfstream (G-IV) Jet (front) NOAA WP-3D
Orion (back)
NOAA NWS Supercomputers
Polar Orbiting (POES NOAA M) Satellite
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Polar Orbiting and Geostationary Satellites
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USAF Reserve C130J Aircraft
10 aircraft
Fly Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans
P
P
Various flight patterns (X, Box, and Delta)
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NOAA G-IV Aircraft
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NOAA P-3 Aircraft
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WSR-88D Coverage
Land-based Doppler radar
Airborne Doppler radar
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Other Observational Tools
Manta
Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT)
UAVs
Altair
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Data Collection

• National Centers for Environmental Prediction
  (NCEP)
• Gathers observations including recon as does the
  NHC
• Satellite data received at Wallops Island, Va.
  and sent to NCEP
• Radar data, ships, buoys (NDBC), other ocean
  measuring equipment, atmospheric soundings sent
  to NCEP
• Models run
• Sent to Gateway computers in Silver Spring, Md.
  for dissemination
• National Climatic Data Center
• Archive

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Computer Models

• Academia, private sector and government
• Statistical Models
• Dynamical Models
• Statistical-Dynamical Models
• Ensemble Models
• Trajectory Models

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Computer Models
Model Type Model Name (forecast element)
Statistical SHIFOR5 (intensity) CLIPER5 (track)
Dynamical GFS (track/Intensity) GFDL (track/intensity) UKMET (track/intensity) HWRF (track/intensity) NOGAPS (track/intensity)
Statistical-Dynamical NHC98 (track) NHC91 (track) SHIPS (intensity)
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Hurricane Dennis Track Model Guidance
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Hurricane Isabel Track Model Guidance
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Hurricane Ophelia Track Model Guidance
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Hurricane Rita Track Model Guidance
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Hurricane Rita Track Model Guidance
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Other Tools

• Locally developed techniques
• Skill and experience of the forecaster
• Communication systems
• Hurricane Coordination Hotline
• Media
• Hurricane Liaison Team

Hurricane Liaison Team
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What Goes Into A Forecast?

• At least every 6 hours.
• Gather and analyze observations (e.g., satellite,
  aircraft, buoys, radar, etc.)
• Run models and analyze output
• Hurricane Specialists prepare preliminary
  forecast package
• Coordination calls with WFOs, other NCEP centers,
  AF, and Navy
• Post final package and communicate with the
  public and media

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Output/Dissemination

• National Hurricane Center Forecasts Products
  (www.nhc.noaa.gov) worldwide distribution
• Text
• Graphic
• Weather Forecast Offices provide specific local
  details
• Storm Surge Forecasts
• Information is distributed via Media,
  Interviews, Briefings to decision makers and to
  other countries decision makers.
• After systems move inland National Center for
  Environmental Prediction assumes forecast
  responsibility along with the River Forecast
  Centers

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Public Advisory

• ...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
  CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN
  GULF COAST...
• A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
  CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
  EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
  BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
  LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
  THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
  WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
  BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
• AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
  KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...
  LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
  SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
  RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
  WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
  TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
  EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
  SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
  CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
  SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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Track and Watch/Warning Graphic
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Probabilistic Winds
34 kt
64 kt
0-120 hr
Hurricane Ivan September 13th, 2004
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Storm Surge Forecasts

• The greatest threat to life and property
• Great concern given the growth of the coastal
  population and infrastructure
• SLOSHNOAAs storm surge forecast tool.

SLOSHHurricane Isabel
SLOSHHurricane Isabel
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NOAAs Tsunami Program
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Kulatara Beach, Thailand Before and After Tsunami
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Tsunami Warning Centers
TWCAlaska
Inside Hawaii TWC
TWCHawaii
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Tsunami Warning CentersAreas-of-responsibility
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Tsunami Warning System
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Seismic DataCritical First Information
Formula for determining Tsunami Magnitude (Mt)
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Coastal Water Level DataCritical Warning and
Verification
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DART Station Mooring SystemEssential Eyes In
The Oceans
DART II BuoyThailand
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Experimental Forecast for Nov 15,2006 Kuril
Islands Tsunami
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The November 15, 2006 Central Kuril Islands
TsunamiForecast vs. Observation
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Tsunami Warning Centers CommunicationsReaching
our Partners Public
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Global Earth Observing System of SystemsThe
benefits of building global observing
architecture are enormous