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How useful are findings of MAP for operational
mesoscale model development?
How relevant are field campaigns for operational
model development? Experiences from MAP
Hans Volkert Institut für Physik der
Atmosphäre DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen Wessling,
Germany with
contributions of many MAPpers
acknowlegements as we go along
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1) Micro-review a century of modelling and
campaigns
2) Fast recapitulation The MAP special
observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov. 1999
3) MAP data _at_ meteorol. services UKMO, DWD,
MetCH, ZAMG, MétéoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada,
US-Navy)
4) Some conclusions
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1) Micro-review a century of modelling and
campaigns

• 1904 (-100 a)
• idea of physical modelling -
• analysis, prognosis Vilhelm Bjerknes

• 1954 (-50 a)
• quasi-operational tests on electronic
• computers in Sweden USA

• 1974 (-30 a)
• GATE within GARP Atlantik Tropical Experiment
• GARP Global Atmospheric Research Programme

(HV into meteorology)

• 1994 (-10 a)
• planning of MAP starts

• 1999 (-5 a)
• MAP-SOP 7 Sep. - 15 Nov.

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2) Fast recapitulation The MAP special
observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov. 1999
Dry MAP waves, drag, flux Wet MAP
microphysics, rain
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Scale / resolution in theAlpine region
800 km
1994 DM with ?x 14 km
3 km
450 km
4 km
Target Areas
The 'truth' (500 m res.) MODIS 02/02/02
2003 Meso-NH with ?x 2 km
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some observational tools airborne and
groundbased
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'MAP bookshop'
M.A.P. 72, 2000 14 articles on HERA
QJRMS 588, 2003 25 articles on MAP-SOP
HESS 7, 2003 10 articles on RAPHAEL
MAP-SOP
BAMS overviews, numerous other papers
Met. Z., 2004 3 issues 14 MAP articles from
ICAM-03
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3) MAP data _at_ meteorol. services UKMO, DWD,
MetCH, ZAMG, MétéoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada,
US-Navy)
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Mesoscale models developed/applied during MAP
ARPS
LM
UM
MM5
multiple grid nesting ?x down to 150 m
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Dry MAP UKMO mountain waves IOP-15, 8 Nov.
1999 3 aircraft vs. Unified Model ref Sam.
Smith, QJRMS, 130, 2004
Falcon
C-130
Electra
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Alpine boundary layer
Weigel et al. (ETH-Z, CH), AMS-MM Conf., 2004

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Predictability of convection/rain
Po valley
I
CH
West-ern Alps
F
I
Andre Walser, Mon.Wea.Rev., 132, 2004
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Precipitation into catchments
MC2
radar
Andre Walser Christoph Schär, J. Hydrology, 2004
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Water budgets
Lac Leman
Lac Leman
Ligurian Sea
Ligurian Sea
Joël Stein 2004, QJ, 481-502
similar studies by R. Smith et al.
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Re-analysis at ECMWF (T319L50 vs. T511L60)
Christian Keil Claudia Cardinali, QJ, 130,
2004, in press
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Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for
precipitation
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DIAL
Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for
upper level intrusion moisture
RA
CNTR
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Hydrol. modelling (P3) runoff from predicted
precip.
atmosphere
river
recently Grossi Kouwen 5 atm. mod. 2
hydro. mod. 10 exp.
Roberto Ranzi
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4) Some conclusions
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• simplistic picture of progress
• higher spatial/temporal resolution ?gt finer
  grids
• ?gt better forecasts

• typical field campaign
• SOP of several weeks 10-20 IOPs of 1-2
  d each
• domain/period of addid. data ltlt standard
  verification areas

• lessons from MAP (after numerous case studies)
• initial data of similar impact as small scale
  details numerical experiments mainly
  in research/university groups
• e.g. compl. MAP-SOP analyses from ARPEGE by F.
  ARNAL
• very few close to operational developers (some
  plans)

• cooperative spirit creativity needed
• unconventional perspectives may overcome
  specialists' bound.

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MAP a look ahead
Systematic harvesting till may 2005 (ICAM-MAP
Zadar)
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a possible phase-space for the harvest
Progress categories
phys. understanding
num. simulation
obs. techniques
Projects
academia
P1 P2P6 P3 P4P5 P7P8
met. services
society
Needs
which other dimensions are (more) meaningful ?
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MAP a look ahead
Systematic harvesting till may 2005 (ICAM-MAP
Zadar)
Forecast demonstration project (FDP a la
WMO-WWRP) quasi-operational 3 months in 2006
(?) coordinated by MetCH (Mathias
Rotach) termed D-PHASE
(Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and
atmospheric simulations in the European Alps)
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and never forget ...
Sample of the MAP community naar Brig, June 2003
... mapping is and remains TEAM work
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