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Scenarios RD in MNE

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Title: Scenarios RD in MNE


1
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Firms
-Practice and Requirements-
Dana Mietzner and Prof. Dr. oec. Guido
Reger Centre for Entrepreneurship and Innovation
at the University of Potsdam, Germany
International Forum on Technology Innovation
and Technology Competitive Intelligence
Beijing Academy of Science and Technology
Peking University Beijing, October 16 - 18, 2008
www.professor-reger.de www.ceip.uni-potsdam.de
2
Research Gap
  • Investigations about the process design and
    degree of application of strategic foresight
    methods is still less investigated and discussed
    in the literature, especially for SMEs
  • Investigations about the degree of the
    implementation of foresight methods refer
    predominantly to large-scale corporations (see
    Weber, 1990 Meyer-Schönherr, 1992 Burmeister,
    Neef, Albert, Glockner, 2002 Kreibich,
    Schlaffer, Trapp, Burmeister, 2002)
  • Whether, and in which form, e.g., scenario
    analysis is used in small and medium sized
    companies, generally remains unanswered by the
    investigations
  • To bridge this gap, 30 small and medium sized
    biotechnology companies were examined, within the
    scope of case study research

3
Research Questions
  • How important are strategic foresight activities
    in the Biotechnology firms?
  • How is the early recognition of new markets and
    new technological developments and change carried
    out in the Biotechnology firms?
  • Who is responsible for strategic foresight
    issues?
  • Do companies use a systematic process for the
    early identification of new business
    opportunities?
  • Which methods are used for strategic foresight?
    How are these methods implemented?

4
Object of Investigation
  • In the scope of this study are German
    Biotechnology firms, offering products and
    service, which can be outdated quickly
  • The firms are positioned in small market niches
    with limited chances of growth in the local
    market
  • This situation requires early internationalisation
    activities. In order to develop competitive
    advantages companies need to assess and analyse
    their own competencies, strategies of
    competitors, the importance of new technologies.

The aim of this study is to investigate how
Biotechnology firms apply foresight activities in
order to deal with the high complexity of the
environment and high speed of change.
5
Concept Definition Services in red
Biotechnology
OECD 2005 List definition Single definition
Characteristic feature Integration of the
external factor
Definition Services
Definition Biotechnology
Services in red Biotechnology are all profit
oriented activities, which require the
integration of external factors and the use of
methods which are defined by OECD as
biotechnology techniques targeting to medical
applications.
Definition Red
ErnstYoung 2005 Medical Applications
see Reger, Mietzner, Nolting, 2008, 29
6
Concept Definition Strategic Foresight
  • Strategic foresight is defined as an integrated
    approach of early recognition of
  • New technologies
  • Upcoming competitors
  • New markets
  • Changing customer requirements
  • Changing societal phenomena
  • and the systematic integration of early
    recognition results into strategic planning.
  • This definition emphasises the link from
    foresight to strategic planning.

7
Concept Definition Strategic Foresight Process
Strategic Foresight Process
New Markets
Change in the environment
8
Practice of Strategic Foresight Case Study
Research
  • Analysis of the material by Qualitative Content
    Analysis
  • Data is taken from texts (extracted raw data)
    which is processed in the next step and are then
    evaluated
  • Based on the original texts (interview
    transcripts), a data base is established, which
    contains only information which is relevant to
    answer the research questions
  • (see e.g. Glaser, Lauder, 2004, 194 Muhr, 1991a
    b 1996 Muhr, Friese, 2001)
  • Case Studies in 30 German Biotechnology firms
  • Interviewpartner CEO
  • and/or head of marketing
  • Implementation ofhalf-standardized interviews
  • Other sources
  • Business information
  • Workshop minutes
  • Appropriate websites
  • Biotechnology newsletter
  • Special interest magazines
  • Patent search, consulting reports

9
Qualitative Content Analysis Search Grid (I)
10
Qualitative Content Analysis Search Grid (II)
11
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Firms
Typologies
12
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (I)
Science-driven approach (foresight per se) (4
Cases)
  • Early diagnosis occurs in these firms, per se,
    because new technological trends and weak
    signals are perceived in a scientific
    environment, early, and are part of the daily
    work
  • The persons active in these firms are, as a rule,
    scientists who are active in scientific networks.
  • Customers scientists, scientific institutions
  • Involvement in publicly financed research projects

"Foresight is part of the business model, because
scientists always observe new developments,
customers are in the academic market, so that new
developments are recognized early." (P31)
  • Methods and Tools
  • Simple bibliometric analysis (Qn)
  • Publication analysis (H)
  • Regular RD meetings (I)
  • Internet search (H)

The interpretation of data is carried out
anonymously. P (number) hermeneutic unit
13
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (II)
Network-oriented approach (9 Cases)
  • The information procurement occurs preferentially
    in informal and also through formal networks of
    the employees (business development units,
    marketing and management)
  • The information exchange within the firms occurs
    primarily informally (information exchange on
    call)
  • Experimentally-driven
  • Strategic foresight is in the responsibility of
    the head of the company
  • Strengths Networks in which one also succeeds
    personal contacts in being based with
    pharmaceutical companies
  • Weakness A lack of future orientation

  • Methods and Tools
  • Meetings (I)
  • Observation of market- and customer
    developments (B)
  • Internet search(H)
  • Publication analysis (H)

14
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (III)
Market-driven approach (10 Cases)
  • Collection and systematisation of customer data,
    and competitive information
  • Compilation of data occurs through sales
    employees
  • Customer inquiries are implemented regulary
  • Monitoring of customer inquiries
  • Screening of websites
  • Marketing or Business Development unit is
    responsible for foresight and reports to the head
    of the company (strategic foresight)

Customer conversations, the very best to 95 are
customer conversations." (P30).
  • Methods and Tools
  • Marketing-Controlling (Qn)
  • CRM-System and market research data base (Q/Qn)
  • Customer potential analysis Qn)
  • Screening of websites (H)
  • Evaluation of clients inquiries (Q)
  • Portfolio analysis (Q/Qn)
  • Market analysis (Qn)
  • Internal brainstorming (I)
  • Strategy meetings (I)
  • SWOT analysis (I)
  • Internet search (H)
  • Publication analysis (H)

15
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (IV)
Gatekeeper approach (3 Cases)
  • CEO, CSO, Head of Technology, and/or Business
    Development act as gatekeepers
  • Strongly experienced-driven
  • Gatekeepers are strongly networked, e.g., in
    committees, within the scope of the networks,
    they screen trends and also form trends
  • Information flows into an intuitive scenario
    analysis, which is combined with SWOT analysis
    and portfolio management
  • The gatekeeper approach is characterised by a
    strong focus on observation of new and existing
    technologies and markets and marked as well by a
    relatively high future orientation in the
    strategic planning trial
  • The gatekeeper approach describes a concept which
    fits best into the integrated definition of
    strategic foresight
  • But it can be also become a risk if the foresight
    activities are only carried out by the
    gatekeepers, who manage the process of
    information access about risks and opportunities
    and develop a strong information power basis

16
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (V)
Gatekeeper approach (3 Cases)
  • Methods and Tools
  • Scenario Analysis (I)
  • SWOT Analysis (I)
  • Brainstorming (I)
  • Strategy workshops (External experts )
  • Action plans (I)
  • Internet search (H)
  • Assessment of ideas with help of business plans
    (Q/Qn)
  • Portfolio analysis (Q/Qn)
  • Knowledge Management tool(in construction) (Qn/Q)

17
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (VI)
Controlling-based approach (1 Case)
  • Early diagnosis is based of changes in the
    income/expense overview, capacity usages, as well
    as on some qualitative indicators
  • The goal of strategic foresight is, in this case,
    to contribute to the risk
  • management, to recognize, i.e. risks early, and
    to initiate corresponding measures.
  • Methods and Tools
  • Foresight tool controlling tool (Qn)
  • Internet search (H)

18
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies (VII)
No strategic foresight (3 Cases)
  • Lack of strategic planning
  • Lack of consiousness for strategic foresight
  • The focus lies in the current satisfaction of the
    customer's needs, and to maintain the competitive
    position

"Our real major task is something else" (P14)
19
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Companies
Strenght and Weaknesses (I)
20
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Companies
Strenght and Weaknesses (II)
21
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Companies
Strenght and Weaknesses (III)
22
Practice of Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology
Companies
23
Reasons for the Low Degree of Application of
Strategic Foresight Methods
  • Low resources "We are a small company, we are
    focused on services. Our overhead is relatively
    small and the employees in the service
    departments in the company have a lot to handle
    in this respect our capacity to apply certain
    methods and to work with these methods is not
    available." (P13)
  • No knowledge of methodology "Road Mapping? What
    is this? (P16)
  •  
  • Lack of preparedness "Scientists want to do
    science." (P18)
  •  
  • High expenses "Expenses and value are not
    comparable experience knowledge is preferred by
    us over methodological textbook knowledge." (P21)
  •  
  • Methods do not meet the specific requirements of
    the branch
  • "I know all that, but we must also have
    something that fits our company." (P30)

24
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Firms
Requirements (I)
  • Specification and customisation of information
  • Need for a strong support in the information
    gathering and systematisation in the beginning of
    the foresight process
  • Biotechnology firms need reliable information
    about current and potential customers,
    competitors, distributors, regulations and
    relevant authorities, intercultural information
    with regard to their activities in foreign
    markets as well as general market data for
    selected foreign markets
  • Need for information structuring and mapping of
    information
  • Information need to be acquired and restored more
    systematically and need to be prepared for
    decision making in an ongoing process

25
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Firms
Requirements (II)
  • Integration of customised information with
    strategic planning methods
  • Strategic planning methods (e.g., portfolio
    analysis, competitive analysis, market potential
    analysis) need to be interlinked with the
    information base
  • High relevance of an ongoing monitoring of
    driving forces in order to be aware of change in
    the external environment What are possible
    future markets also outside current markets and
    current technologies?
  • Integration of strategic foresight results and
    operative
  • business activities
  • Need for the fast transfer of foresight results
    into the operative business, into action plans
    and projects
  • Foresight activities will only create acceptance
    within the firms, if there is a link to operative
    business activities and value creation

26
Strategic Foresight in Biotechnology Firms
Requirements (III)
  • Simple and efficient implementation of strategic
    foresight
  • Due to limited resources companies expect an easy
    and efficient implementation of strategic
    foresight methods

27
Conclusions (I)
Customised knowledge base for formal and informal
information and data
  • Within the scope of a case study approach, six
    different forms of strategic foresight could be
    identified in the biotechnology firms
  • Strategic foresight strongly characterized by
    formal and informal networks as the preferred
    approach of information gathering for strategic
    decisions, the degree of sophisticated method
    application is fairly low
  • Need for suitable knowledge management solutions
    in the biotechnology firms as the fundamentals
    for strategic foresight and management
  • The knowledge management system needs to be
    customised, since the investigated firms are
    still very heterogeneous with different
    information requirements
  • Need for the implementation of informal
    information into the foresight process, which
    should be implemented by the systematic gathering
    and storage of informal information by
    gatekeepers and other persons in different
    functions
  • Appropriate knowledge base will become the
    fundamentals for the implementation of strategic
    foresight methods, like e.g., scenario analysis

28
Conclusions (II)
  • Open Foresight
  • To overvome the lack of resources Open
    foresight activities and initiatives in the way
    of common foresight projects, in a community
    together with a number of other biotechnology
    firms, research institutes, suppliers, policy or
    networks needs be implemented (see e.g., Reger,
    Mietzner, von Gizycki, 2007a b)
  • Open foresight projects meet the observed network
    attitude of the biotechnology firms and allow the
    development of future-open-thinking
  • Open Foresight experiences and future knowledge
    still need to be interlinked with the closed
    foresight and decision making process within the
    biotechnology firms

29
Conclusions (III)
  • Definition of Open Foresight
  • Open Foresight can be described as the wider
    opening of the strategic foresight process.
  • The outsourcing of foresight activities and the
    integration of companies and other market actors
    creates two key effects.
  • The gathering and evaluation of information is
    based on a wider fundament
  • Necessary ressources can be shared
  • Future knowledge is generated in this approach
    outside the
  • company in networks together with other market
    actors of the same
  • or related branches, research institutes,
    networks and/or policy
  • actors.

30
Conclusions (IV)
  • Foresight processes needs to be customised
  • Firstly on the level of branches or segments and
  • Secondly on the companies level
  • There is not a one-size-fits-all approach of
    strategic foresight.

31
Literature
  • Burmeister, K., Neef, A., Albert, B., Glockner,
    H. (2002) Zukunftsforschung und Unternehmen.
    Praxis, Methoden, Perspektiven, Z_punkt (Hrsg.).
  • Kreibich, R., Schlaffer, A., Trapp, C.,
    Burmeister, K. (2002) Zukunftsforschung in
    Unternehmen, Eine Studie zur Organisation von
    Zukunftswissen und Zukunftsgestaltung in
    deutschen Unternehmen, Sekretariat für
    Zukunftsforschung, Berlin.
  • Meyer-Schönherr, M. (1992) Szenario-Technik als
    Instrument der strategischen Planung, Verlag
    Wissenschaft Praxis, Ludwigsburg, Berlin.
  • Muhr, T. (1991). ATLAS.ti - ein
    Interpretations-Unterstützungs-System, in Fuhr,
    N. (Hrsg.), Informatik-Fachberichte Information
    Retrieval, Band 289, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
  • Muhr, T. (1991) ATLAS.ti - A Prototype for the
    Support of Text Interpretation. Qualitative
    Sociology, 14, 349-371
  • Muhr, T. (1996) Textinterpretation und
    Theorieentwicklung mit ATLAS.ti, in Bos, W.,
    Tarnai, C. (Hrsg.), Computerunterstützte
    Inhaltsanalyse in der Empirischen Pädagogik,
    Psychologie und Soziologie, Waxmann, Münster
  • Muhr, T., Friese, S. (2001) Computergestützte
    Qualitative Datenanalyse, in Hug, T. (Hrsg.),
    Wie kommt Wissenschaft zu Wissen?, Einführung in
    die Forschungsmethodik und Forschungspraxis, Band
    2, Schneider Verlag, Hohengehren
  • Reger, G., Mietzner, D., Nolting, M. (2008)
    Szenarioanalyse Dienstleistungen in der roten
    Biotechnologie (DLrBT), Shaker Verlag, Aachen.
  • Reger, G., Mietzner, D., von Gizycki, T. (2007)
    Szenarioanalyse Bioanalytik und in vitro
    Diagnostik in Berlin-Brandenburg,
    Bestandsaufnahme und Handlungsempfehlungen,
    Shaker Verlag, Aachen.
  • Reger, G., Mietzner, D., von Gizycki, T. (2007)
    Szenarioanalyse Weiße Biotechnologie in
    Berlin-Brandenburg - Bestandsaufnahme und
    Handlungsempfehlungen, Shaker Verlag, Aachen.
  • Weber, K. (1990). Wirtschaftsprognostik,
    Vahlen, München.

32
Contact
Prof. Dr. oec. Guido Reger Professor for
Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship Phon
e 49-331-977-3326 Email Guido.Reger_at_uni-potsdam
.de
Dana Mietzner Leader Research Group New Market
Intelligence and Technology Foresight Phone
49-331-977-4500 Email Dana.Mietzner_at_uni-potsdam.
de
Centre for Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the
University of Potsdam (BIEM-CEIP) Am Park
Babelsberg 14, D-14482 Potsdam, GERMANY
www.professor-reger.de www.ceip.uni-potsdam.de
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