Technology Foresight Methods

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Technology Foresight Methods
Week 4
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Why do we need method?
A body of technique for investigating a
phenomena by acquiring new knowledge or creating
and integrating previous knowledge. It is based
on the process of gathering empirical evidence
based on specific principles of reasoning.
What phenomena are we interested
in this course?
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The longer term future of science, technology,
the economy and society with the aim of
identifying the areas of strategic research and
emerging generic technologies likely to yield the
greatest economic and social benefits
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Why do we need formal methods for technology
foresight?

• To make the foresight process more systematic
• Increase the transparency of inputs, processes
  and outputs
• Provides a hybrid forum for interaction and
  communication between various system actors
• Aiding visualisation of possible/desirable
  futures

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How do we select with method to use?

• Resources (especially time and money)
• Desired breadth and depth of participation by
  experts and stakeholders in the foresight
  exercise
• Suitability of combining the method with other
  methods, both as feeders and as complements to
  the results of other methods
• Desired output of the foresight
• The quantitative/qualitative data requirement of
  various method
• Methodological competence

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A. Identifying issues
It is common for foresight studies to begin with
some sort of scanning and framing activity, which
together identify and inform issues on which the
foresight will focus. This is usually used as a
background analysis for other methods
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• A1. Environmental scanning
  
  A method to identify important developments in
  the environment of organisations. These
  approaches are particularly useful for addressing
  emerging themes that conventional trend analysis
  might find hard to spot often because there are
  as yet no established data on the issue of
  interest.
• This can be done in several ways, amongst them
• Requesting a number of experts to select or write
  about a topic that they believe will be important
  in the future and systematic analysis of their
  opinions
• Systematic analysis of documentary sources (book,
  journals, magazines)
• Systematic analysis of web-sources (relevant
  websites and portals)
• Systematic analysis of specialised data sources
  (e.g. bibliometric analysis from Web of Science
  and patent analysis from US Patent and trademark
  office homepage)

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Worldwide publications related to fuel cell by
year of publication (1955-2005)
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Publications related to fuel cell (by year of
publication) Comparison between UKM and leading
universities in the world
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Publications related to fuel cell (by year of
publication) Comparison between UKM and leading
universities in the world
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Patent publication
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Patent map
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Cumulative fuel cell units installed worldwide
(1991-2006)
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• A1. Environmental scanning (cont.)
  
  
• Environmental scanning can be done at different
  levels
• Passive scanning scanning without really
  thinking about it and it is a general way how
  we keep up to date with whatever is our
  particular concern
• Active scanning particular sources are
  regularly scanned, perhaps making an effort to
  extend the scope we normally cover
• Directed scanning often organised within a
  team, this implies a much more organised and
  selective approach to scanning for a particular
  purpose.
• I

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Technology coverage by NTU
Technology coverage by UKM
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• A2. Issue survey
  
  A method by consulting a wider range of
  expert opinion than could readily accomodated in
  face-to-face meetings, to find out what they
  consider to be important developments in their
  areas. The surveys may be fairly open-ended ones,
  in which the experts are allowed to elaborate on
  the issues in their own style, often supplying
  relevant documentation and the like. In this, a
  more structured approach by providing a specific
  questionnaire is a common practice.
• For instances a UK foresight programme in the
  mid-1990s involved a four page questionnaire
  where respondents were asked the following
  questions
• What are the major drivers and shapers in the
  area of interest?
• What sort of problems and need do these
  create?
• What sort of solution and innovations might be
  applied to these?
• What sort of research, knowledge or capability
  might be needed to achieve this?

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A3. SWOT (strengths, weakness, opportunities and
threats) A method that offers
an analytical tool used to categorise significant
internal and external factors influencing an
organisations or territorys strategies or, in
the case of foresight, its possible futures. It
generally provides a list of an organisations
strengths and weaknesses as indicated by an
analysis of its resources and capabilities, plus
the list of the threats and opportunities that an
analysis of its environmental identifies. The
SWOT is often potrayed as a 2x2 matrix
(representing strengths, weakness, opportunities
and threats( which presents an overview of major
issues to be to taken into account in developing
strategic plans for an organisation. The idea is
that such an appraisal will enable strategies to
be developed that match the strengths with
opportunities, while warding of threats and
overcoming weaknesses where feasible.
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STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
THREATS
OPPORTUNITIES
Strengths attributes of the organisation that
are helpful to achieve the objective Weaknesses
attributes of the organisation that are harmful
to achieving the objective Opportunities
external conditions that are helpful in achieving
the objective Threats external conditions that
are harmful to achieving the objective
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SWOT analysis for further trans-national
cooperation on hydrogen and fuel cell research,
development and deployment (RDD) in Europe

• STRENGTHS
• World class RDD within hydrogen and fuel cell
  area
• World class basic research
• Strong political and market backing from EU
  member states
• Excellent framework condition environmental
  innovation
• Clear existing overlaps in terms of shared
  interest and technological expertise

• WEAKNESSES
• Unawareness about shared interest and expertise
• Intellectual property rights hamper
  collaboration as tehnnology moves towards
  commercialisation
• Weak at transforming research into commercial
  and competitive products in the market
• Low level of venture capital and lack of
  industrial movement in agenda setting
• Low level interaction between industry, gov,
  scientists across national border

• OPPORTUNITIES
• Gathering, coordination and sharing of
  information about European RDD
• Improve and simplify private actors access to
  public funds
• Potential cooperation between countries with
  similar climatic condition, energy systems
  priorities and industrial bases
• Establishment of long tem transnational networks
  of cooperation

• THREATS
• Lack of will and ambition to firmly establish
  Europen leadership in the field of hydrogen and
  fuel cell
• More bureaucracy and less flexibility resulting
  from the enlargement

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EXERCISE
Do a SWOT analysis of the possibility of
establishing a frequent and free of charge feeder
bus service within the campus
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B. Extrapolative approach
Although foresight is a distinct activity from
forecasting, some forecasting (or extrapolative)
methods have been borrowed by foresight
practitioners. These are statistical approaches
based upon well defined assumptions.
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• B1. Trend extrapolation A method that uses
  historical data (e.g. concerning population
  growth, economic development, social attitudes
  etc) to extrapolate the future. This may be done
  impressionistically or by fitting a curve or
  straight line to a series, or more usually in
  contemporary analyses, by mathematical or
  statistical equation-fitting.

A trend is a trend is a trend, But when will
it bend? Will it turn over and die?
Shoot the sky
Or asymptote off the end?

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Statistical curve fitting Statistical procedures
fit in the past data to one or more mathematical
functions such as linear, s-curve or exponential.
The best function is selected by a statistical
test and then forecast is extrapolated from this
mathematical relationship
Limit analysis Ultimately all growth is limited,
and there is an absolute limit to progress,
either recognised or unrecognised. Sooner or
later, projections must reflect the fact that
improvements may get close to this limit but
cannot exceed it.
Additional source (Web-address)
http//www.wiley.com/college/meredith298298/resour
ces/addtopics/addtopic_s_02d.html
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Trend correlation At times, one technology is a
pre-cursor to another. This is frequently the
case when advances made in the pre-cursor
technology can be adopted by the follower
technology. When such relationship exist,
knowledge of changes in the precursor technology
can be used to predict the course of the follower
technology, as far in the future as the lag time
between the two
Multivariate trend correlation Occasionally, a
follower technology is dependent on several
precursor technologies rather than on a single
precursor. In such cases, the follower is usually
a composite or aggregate of several precursors.
Additional source (Web-address)
http//www.wiley.com/college/meredith298298/resour
ces/addtopics/addtopic_s_02d.html
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• B2. Simulation modeling A method that uses
  computer simulation models to project how a
  system will operate over time as a result of
  specific interventions.
• For instance, a climate model is essentially a
  representation of various parts of the Earths
  climate. In climateprediction.net there are two
  ways of looking at this.
• One is the use of fairly simply models where
  modellers are trying to reduce the complex
  behaviour of the climate down to a set of
  mathematical equation of particular processes, in
  the hope that they can be begin to understand the
  processes that are going on
• Two is the use of complex models (i.e general
  circulation model), where modellers try to
  represent everything even if things get so
  complicated that they cant always understand
  whats going on. The equations are tweaked within
  reasonable boundaries, so that the model does as
  well as possible at producing past and current
  climates.

Additional source (Web-address)
http//www.climateprediction.net/science/model-int
ro.php
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Ozone Layer
CO2
Long term geological processes expose deposits to
air
CO2
CO2
CO2
Photosynthesis
Aerobic respiration
Producers
Producers
Consumers
Decomposers
Die
Die
CO2
CO2
CO2
Die
Photosynthesis
Aerobic respiration
Carbon containing fossil
Producers
Producers
Consumers
Decomposers
Die
Die
Die
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• Computer modeling is a popular method as it
• Allow a system to be represented in terms of its
  key components and relationships and allow us to
  think systematically about the assumptions
  concerning the dynamics of a system and allow the
  search of data that is able to test and elaborate
  those assumptions.
• It can be used to project how the system will
  operate overtime or as a result of specific
  intervention. In this way, it will allow us to
  explore alternative starting conditions, events
  and interventions and even allow one to
  experiment with changing assumptions and to
  compare the behaviour models of the same system
  based on different understanding of how it
  operates.
• Allow the use of large number of variables
  simultaneously (than what we are able to do!) and
  process the materials in a systematic amd
  meticulous way.
• The wide availability of low-cost computing over
  the last decade. It also allow results to be
  produced in detailed graphical form

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• But what do you think is the weaknesses of
  computer models?

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• On the downside
• Whilst models of social, political and cultural
  change have been produced for decades, our
  understanding of how the system work is
  incomplete and hotly debated, with very different
  worldviews bring brought to play.
• It is not easy to identify and locate
  appropriate data on key variables, let alone
  estimate the relationship between them
• The quality of the model is only as good as that
  of the assumptions it is based on (e.g. CO2 main
  contributor to global warming).
• A continuous problem is that, especially in
  large and complex simulation model, it can be
  difficult for non-experts to identify and
  critique the assumptions and the results. As a
  result, many large models are subject to little
  independent inspection and the details of some
  are commercially confidential.

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B3. Genius forecasting A method that
generates a vision (or several vision of the
future) through insights of a gifted and
respected individual. Genius forecasting is
different from conventional future studies where
such figures or geniuses (through their
specialised experience and studies) synthesise
idea from larger teams in new way, stamping their
own strongly-held view on them. This is mainly to
provide fresh or out of the box thinking that
may otherwise be neglected.
Example Alvin Toffers book called Future
Schock and Third Wave
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In the 1970s, Toffler argues that society will
undergo an enormous structural change, a
revolution from an industrial society to a
super-industrial society with information
overload. This change will overwhelm people, the
accelerated rate of technological and social
change will leave them disconnected and they will
suffer from stress and disorientation FUTURE
SHOCKED!
In this 1980s, Toffler was famous for coining the
word The information revolution. He argued that
just as manufacturing (the second wave) came out
of the peak of the agricultural era (the first
wave), the information age (the third wave) will
come out at the peak of the manufacturing era.
Huge companies and military organisations will
increasingly need to track what they had, what
they were doing and what they were spending!
Additional source (Web-address)
http//www.thirdwave-website/ind_primer.htm
http//www.wikipedia
.org/wiki/Future_shock.htm
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B4. Delphi A method that uses survey that is
designed to feed information back to its
respondents, not just to provide materials for
processing by data analysts. What makes Delphi
different from other opinion surveys is the way
in which this is accomplished. Delphi does not
just involve a one-off posing of questions. The
survey is circulated to the same respondents at
least twice. Together with the same set of
questions, the respondents in later rounds
receive feedback on the structure of the
responses from previous rounds.The purpose of
providing feedback, and offering the chance for
the respondents to modify their judgments in its
lights, is to promote exchange of views and
information and to see how far their forecasts
and expectations correspond to those of a wider
pool of respondents.
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Procedure
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Example of questionnaire design
Procedure
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Analysis
Ranking on agreements of mega-trend
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The most important topic clusters
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Importance category
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Trend extrapolation Simulation modeling
Genius forecasting
Delphi
Environmental scanning Issue Survey
SWOT
Identifying Issues
Extrapolative approaches
Methods
Creative approaches
Prioritisation
Brainstorming Expert
panels Cross-impact
analysis Scenario analysis
Technology Roadmapping
Critical or Key Technologies