Poisson regression result 1988 1997 for summer only

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Health costs of vehicle emissions
Tord Kjellstrom, National Centre for
Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian
National University, Canberra (Australian
Transport Research Forum, Canberra, Oct 2nd 2002)
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Issues to be explored

• Which health issues need to be considered in
  relation to vehicle transport ?
• What are the emissions from vehicles and what are
  their potential health impacts ?
• Can the health effects of emissions be
  demonstrated and quantified ?
• What might be the health and other cost changes
  from reduced emissions ? (NZ examples)
• How would different policy measures reduce the
  health costs ?

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Indicators of vehicle density and traffic safety,
1998
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Health hazards associated with different
transport modes (relative to the hazards created
by walking)
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Main air pollution sources and issues

• MOTOR VEHICLES increasing traffic density
  gradual introduction of emission controls
  including low emission engines increasing local
  concern about air pollution greenhouse gases.
• HOME HEATING use of wood and coal decreasing
  still important in certain communities influence
  of oil and electricity prices greenhouse gases.
• INDUSTRY AND POWER STATIONS local problems in
  hot spots greenhouse gases.

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Major air pollutants from vehicles

• Carbon Monoxide
• Nitrogen dioxide
• Ozone (secondary pollutant)
• Sulfur dioxide
• (Lead)
• Particles TSP, PM10, PM2.5
• Hydrocarbons (VOCs, PAHs, incl. BaP)
• Other greenhouse gases (CO2)
• Actual air concentrations very dependent on
  windspeed, wind direction and rainfall

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Main health effects of vehicle air pollutants
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Dose-relationships for PM10 and different health
effect indicators (WHO air quality guidelines,
2000)
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Christchurch, typical daily air pollution
variations
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(No Transcript)
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Daily mortality residual of regression model
without pollutants, against the level of PM10
Christchurch
Each point is an average of 20 adjacent points
sorted by PM10
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Poisson regression result (Christchurch, 1988 -
1997)(for summer months, September - April)
Health outcome Total deaths

• Maximum hourly temperature above 27.9 degree C
  had a significant effect on same day total
  mortality but no significant effect on total
  mortality on subsequent days.
• PM10 level had a significant effect on same day
  total mortality and also on total mortality on
  the subsequent day.
• CO and NO2 levels were not significant when PM10
  was in the model (strong correlation between
  pollutant levels)
• Thus, summer air pollution (almost exclusively
  vehicle related) increases mortality

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Mortality effect of urban air pollution (PM, NO2,
CO or ozone)

• Numerous studies in North America, Europe and
  Asia show daily mortality increase (also in
  Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth)
• 1 daily mortality increase per 10 ug/m3 PM10
• Two major studies in the USA show annual
  mortality increase related to annual PM10 or
  PM2.5
• 3 4 annual total mortality increase per
  annual 10 ug/m3 PM10 increase
• Recent studies show lung cancer increase

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Mode of transport to commute to work, census day,
1996
 
Average public transport use Auckland region 6
Melbourne 16 Stockholm 37
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Auckland example Health costs of private
vehicle transport vs. public transport

• Car crash deaths during commuting hours
• Deaths related to vehicle emissions emitted
  during the same hours
• Deaths due to increased mortality among people
  with obesity related to lack of physical activity
  during commuting

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Estimating deaths from crashes and emissions

• 80 deaths/year in car crashes 50 during weekday
  commuting hours 40 deaths/year
• recent study in Europe car air pollution
  contributes to 400 deaths/million people/10 ug/m3
  PM10
• if half of Aucklands million people are exposed
  to 10 ug/m3 from vehicles, and half of the
  pollution is created during weekday commuting
  hours
  .
  100 deaths/year

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Deaths from lack of physical activity among car
drivers

• - lack of natural daily physical exercise one
  outcome of in the 300,000 car commuters of
  Auckland
• obesity prevalence in Auckland appr. 20 (60,000
  of car commuters)
• obesity increase among constant car users appr.
  1.2 (appr. 10,000 car-obese among commuters)
• at 0.8 background mortality per year and appr.
  50 increased mortality among obese people, the
  car commuter obesity would cause 0.4 x 10,000
• 
  40 deaths/year

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Potentially reduced health costs with increased
public transport commuting and reduced
unnecessary car driving in Auckland

• Total road toll from crashes, air pollution and
  obesogenic environment 180/year
• Bringing Auckland to Melbourne level (10 reduced
  car commuting) possibly saves 18 lives/year
• Bringing Auckland to Stockholm level (25 reduced
  car commuting) possibly saves 45 lives/year

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The cost of public health impacts of transport
and adaptation actions

• Includes
• mortality ( 2 million per life, MoT)
• hospital admissions (2,000 per admission)
• Other health care costs
• cost of absenteeism from work or school
• noise protection of communities, schools,
  workplaces, homes, etc.
• traffic safety measures, air pollution control
• cost of heat/climate related health impacts

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Collateral externality gains from Health cost
or Greenhouse gas reductions

• NZ Transport emissions, 1998 6381 kt CO2 equ.
• In Auckland, appr. 30 1900 kt
• If 25 reduction of private car commuting leads
  to 20 reduction of CO2 380 kt
• ( 6 of transport and 0.5 of total GHGs)
• at US 21/ton CO2 equ.gtgtgt
• Value of reduced CO2 NZ 20 million/yr
• Value of reduced mortality NZ 90 million/yr
• To this should be added other health costs
• Thus, CO2 value alone underestimates economic
  value by at least a factor of 5 ! ( 20 instead
  of 110 million)

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NZ National example
  Health effects due to motor vehicle air
pollution in New Zealand.     Report to the
Ministry of Transport  20 March,
2002        G.W. Fisher1, K. A. Rolfe2, Prof. T.
Kjellstrom3, Prof. A. Woodward4, Dr S. Hales4,
Dr A. P. Sturman5, Dr S. Kingham5, J. Petersen1,
R. Shrestha3, D. King1.   1.   NIWA 2.   Kevin
Rolfe Associates Limited 3.   University of
Auckland 4.   Wellington Medical School 5.  
University of Canterbury http//www.transport.gov
t.nz/publications/niwa_report
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Health cost calculation method

• 1. Air monitoring results in urban areas,
  geographic distribution when possible
• 2. Emission inventories to estimate fraction of
  total air pollution emitted from vehicles
• 3. Population data by geographic area to estimate
  number exposed
• 4. Health effects based on annual linear
  dose-response relationship, with a threshold and
  adjustment for background mortality

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Total mortality (all ages) due to road toll and
vehicle emissions
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Mortality rates per million people gt 30 years of
age due to traffic crashes and vehicle emissions
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Estimated annual deaths due to air pollution
 
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Health cost implications of different transport
policies
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Conclusions

• Epidemiological and other health research
  evidence on health impacts is accumulating
• More accurate quantitative estimates of health
  costs are becoming possible
• Integrated epidemiology and health economics
  research can help inform policy development
• Important to consider collateral externality
  gains of policies for health cost reduction,
  particularly greenhouse gas gains

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The End Thank you !