Context: trends

1
Context trends

• Growth in car travel and traffic (27 car 1952 to
  85 2004)
• Growth in journey length (4.7 6.9 miles
  1973-2003)
• Reduced vehicle occupancy (1.64-1.59 1985-2003)
• Changing journeys more school and work journeys
  by car
• Changing costs bus and rail fares up 35
  1980-2003, motoring down 9
• Declining bus use (outside London)

2
Results

• Physical activity decline in walking and cycling
  contributing to increased obesity
• Congestion increasing and spreading in time and
  place, with economic consequences
• Environment transport is the fastest growing
  source of greenhouse gases, and also source of
  local air quality and noise problems despite
  technical improvements. Community severance and
  intrusion is also an issue.
• Casualties Children from the lowest social class
  are five times more likely to die in road crashes
  than those from the highest social class

3
Air Quality improvements but..
4
Car-based development
5
Landscape and biodiversity

• Car dependent development
• Landscape impacts
• Loss of habitats and biodiversity to transport
  development

6
Social exclusion

• Work 2 out of 5 jobseekers say lack of transport
  is a barrier to getting a job
• Learning 6 of 16-24 year olds turn down
  training or education because of transport
  difficulties
• Health 1.4m people a year do without healthcare
  or miss appointments because of transport
  problems
• Food 16 of people without cars find access to
  supermarkets difficult
• Friends and family 18 of people without cars
  find seeing friends and family difficult

7
And there is climate change

• Real and serious Biggest threat we face PM,
  D Cameron etc
• Concentrations of carbon dioxide 280ppm (1750)-
  373ppm (2002)
• Consensus that irreversible change may occur
  beyond 550ppm but could be much lower
• Scientific consensus that climate change is real
  and is caused by human activity and that it will
  result in potentially catastrophic impacts for
  people and the planet

8
Consequences

• Much higher temperatures (with health
  consequences)
• Changing rainfall patterns more floods and
  erosion
• Melting glaciers and sea level rise
• More infectious diseases
• Significant extinction of species and habitats
• No lawns!

9
Transport is implicated

• Transport accounts for 24 of UK carbon
  emissions, set to be 30 by 2030 (and this
  excludes international aviation and shipping)
• Freight carbon dioxide emissions grew 48
  1990-2002
• Aviation climate change effects worldwide could
  increase by 300-1000 1992-2050

10
Carbon dependency cant continue

• We will be living in a carbon constrained world
  because
• Policies to tackle climate change consensus on
  need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least
  60 by 2050
• Policies to increase security by reducing
  reliance on imported oil from politically
  unstable areas
• Rising real oil prices with rising demand from
  emerging economies and peaking in oil supply

11
Peak oil
12
..transport is at risk..

• Oil based transport will become
• Dearer generally
• Subject to supply shocks from weather or politics
• Fluctuating prices
• huge economic not just environmental issue

13
..so past transport trends cant continue

• Trip lengthening (and all that goes with it)
• Car-based development
• Mode switch to car/lorry/air

14
Technology will help but..

• Hybrid cars 1 of market now
• Biofuels might make 5 by 2010
• Hydrogen fuel cells are unlikely to be economic
  before 2020

15
National policy context

• Moves towards road user charging
• More local powers over bus services
• More housing development in SE/E
• Aviation expansion

16
E of England plan

• Assembly recommended 120 transport schemes over
  next 15 years
• Highways Agency modelling these will not solve
  congestion and CO2 from road transport will
  increase by 40 10p/km road charge will do
  better
• Inquiry Panel recommended regional transport
  objective to contribute to a reduction in
  regions climate change emissions by reducing
  traffic growth and ultimately achieving an
  absolute reduction in traffic on the regions
  road system

17
For Colchester, or anywhere

• Not possible to have cheap unrestrained car use
• Need to reduce car dependence
• Manage car use and provide alternatives

18
So what can practically be done?

• Frameworks
• Partnerships public services, transport
  operators, neighbouring councils, voluntary
  sector, business (Solent example)
• Planning land use planning and service location
  are critical to transport
• Funding look at all budgets not just transport
• Vision for transport linked to economic
  development, environment and community

19
Action now smarter choices

• Workplace travel plans
• School travel plans
• Visitor travel (sports/leisure etc)
• Personal marketing
• Car clubs and car sharing

20
What are travel plans?

• Combinations of measures to reduce
  single-occupancy car commuting including
• Car sharing (guaranteed taxi ride home, priority
  car parking)
• Subsidised public transport
• Cycle parking/showers/ changing area
• Better pedestrian access
• Car park management (charges/ priorities)
• Paying people not to drive to work
• Teleworking/remote working

21
Travel plan examples
22
Orange (Bristol)
of staff arriving as car-driver reduced from
92 to 80 (at Almondsbury Park), and then to 27
(at Temple Point).

• Key factors
• Location change
• Restricted parking, compensation
  payments
• Mode-specific
• improvements

23
Derriford Hospital
In 1995, 90 staff arrived by car. Now only 54
have a parking permit.

• Key factors
• Major improvements to buses
• Parking restrictions and charges
• Car share scheme

24
Maximum staff use of sustainable modes

• 53 public transport (Government Office for the
  East Midlands)
• 23 walking (University of Bristol)
• 21 cycling (Addenbrookes Hospital)
• 26 regularly car sharing (Egg)
• 47 registered / 31 sharing at least once a
  week (Marks Spencer Financial
  Services)

25
Cambridgeshire Partnership

• 30,000 staff at TfW employers
• Driving alone to work down from from 57 to 48
  in 3 years (reduction of 15.8)
• Cycling and public transport most popular
  alternatives

26
School travel

• 30 plans studied achieved average 23 reduction
  in car use with some over 50
• Walking buses for primary schools
• Safe walking and cycle routes see Kesgrave in
  Ipswich
• School buses over 50 of users in the pilots
  were previously driven to school

27
TravelSmart individual marketing

• Can cut car use by 12-14
• Used from Perth to Peterborough

Perth, Australia
28
Car clubs

• Rent a car by the hour or day
• On the street where you live
• Often used with controlled parking

29
Action now alternatives

• Walking
• Cycling
• Public transport

30
Walking and cycling

• Safe routes
• Signing
• Cycle parking

31
Quality public transport

• Information needs to be high quality and easily
  available
• Area-wide ticketing
• Marketing metro maps, branding etc
• Personal security CCTV, policing priority
• Good access to stops/stations
• Young peoples fares e.g. Youth Mover ticket
• Community rail partnerships
• Real time information and bus management
• Bus priority
• Above all treat public transport as a priority
  network that decision-makers and car users might
  want to use

32
Quality public transport

• High quality waiting environments
• Park and ride as part of overall bus strategy

33
Bus improvements
Less Traffic where People Live 2003
34
Demand-responsive transport
35
Managing traffic

• Give priority to most important/ efficient users
  of road space
• Streets for people - home zones, main roads
• Parking controls, charges, limits to spaces
• Excluding through traffic or types of traffic can
  make cities more prosperous

36
Home zones/20 mph

• Street redesign with environmental quality
• Low speeds

37
20 mph in Hull
38
Shared space

• Redesign roads as streets
• Removing signs, barriers etc

39
New housing

• Problem
• Lots of car parking
• No local services
• Cul de sacs
• No walking and cycling routes
• Public transport as afterthought

40
New housing

• Or solution
• High quality public transport from the start
• Car clubs
• Limits on car parking
• Cycling and walking routes
• Local services
• Street design for people not lorries

41
Environment vs economy?

• Increased footfall as shopping environment
  becomes more pleasant
• Local environmental quality contributes to
  economic prosperity

42
Conclusion

• Transport trends are not sustainable they will
  lead to increased congestion
• No amount of road building or extra car parking
  can cater for demand, and management (road
  charging?) is inevitable
• Climate change/oil depletion requires less car
  dependence
• It is possible to start now to deal with traffic
  and transport
• Smarter choice measures show it is possible to
  influence travel behaviour
• It is possible to improve alternatives to the car
  so that people choose to use them

43
Different routes to prosperity

• Vienna car use has fallen from 40 - 36, 30 of
  journeys are now on foot or bike, 34 public
  transport
• Los Angeles 90 car, 10 rest